You Need to Stick and Move, Mr. President

1984: Reagan jokes about Mondale’s youth (youtube.com)

As all are aware, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump hold the first of their two scheduled debates this Thursday.  The Biden Team orchestrated the early date for the first debate – neither man has been formally nominated for president by his party – apparently to combat the notion ceaselessly propagated by the alt-right that 81-year old Mr. Biden lacks the mental acuity and/or stamina to serve a second term.  It may be betting Mr. Biden’s electoral prospects on the expectation that Mr. Biden will reassure the public as President Ronald Reagan did in his debate with former Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984 [Mr. Mondale stated after the election that even as he laughed at Mr. Reagan’s (obviously planned) quip, he knew he was going to lose], and not blunder as President Gerald Ford did in his debate against former GA Gov. Jimmy Carter in 1976 (a gaffe that seemed to confirm the wildly incorrect impression that Mr. Ford was dumb, that may have been the difference with undecided voters in what was a very close 1976 result).

While I didn’t necessarily fault the Biden Campaign’s choice to use an early debate to arrest voter concerns about Mr. Biden’s readiness for a second term at the time the decision was made, I wonder whether the Biden Team would make the same call today, since recent polls seem to be trending in Mr. Biden’s behalf.  That said, ever since they were announced I have had deep misgivings about some of the debate rules that the Biden Camp demanded and the Trump Team has agreed to:  primarily, that there will be no audience and each candidate’s microphone will be off when it is not his turn to speak.  In my view, these rules – which are designed to prevent Mr. Trump from overwhelming the proceeding with bombast (he gets revved up by a crowd, and always attempts to shout down/over anyone who disagrees with him) — are counterproductive to what I believe should be a Biden Team goal on a par with proving the President’s readiness:  show that Mr. Trump is crazy and dangerous.  Remember that the key audience here is not policy-wonk Democrats or die-hard MAGAs; it is that slim slice of the electorate in the swing states who may have genuine concerns about Mr. Biden’s continued readiness and may have forgotten how truly outrageous and nutty – as well as authoritarian – Mr. Trump was while in office.  In one-on-one interviews, even when spouting falsehood after falsehood – lies which are not always apparent to those who are not immersed in the nuances of public affairs – the former president can come across as moderate – normal.  Mr. Trump says crazy and dangerous things – i.e., shows his true colors — when he gets revved up (as at his rallies).  I would submit that Biden Team should have had confidence that its man could execute under the barrage – he is, after all, the President of the United States – while giving Mr. Trump every chance to go off the rails.  Recall that Mr. Trump’s performance at one of the men’s 2020 debates was so excessive that afterward, CNN Commentator Dana Bash – who will be one of the moderators of this week’s debate – actually described Mr. Trump’s performance, on-air, as a “shit show.”  (I feel that if she could say it there, I can repeat it here.  😉 .)

When I expressed these reservations to two close friends a couple of weeks ago, they dismissed my concerns and voiced strong agreement with the course the Biden Team has taken.  You may agree with them.  If so – and even if not – the die is cast, so let’s hope they’re right.

To me, equally unnerving were the sentiments I understand were recently expressed by Biden Campaign Chief Jen O’Malley Dillon:

“Joe Biden is … focused on delivering for the American people and him standing on the stage next to Donald Trump is the best way to show that.  Do I think rules are going to protect the American people from whatever Donald Trump might say?  Of course not.  But I do think, you know, having this be serious is what the American people want. … This is a great opportunity earlier in the cycle than ever before for the two of them to stand together and for [Mr. Biden] to talk about what he’s done and what he’s fighting for.  And you know not having an audience, not having distractions, not having to worry about COVID, I think all these things are better for the American people and Joe Biden is going to have a great debate. [Emphasis Added]”  

Pardon me while I rant, talk in this paragraph as I would if you and I were enjoying refreshers in a local pub.  This is so much clueless drivel that it makes me want to go to the nearest restroom and throw up.  I seriously wonder whether Ms. O’Malley Dillon hasn’t wandered in from Hillary Clinton’s campaign debacle.  Mr. Biden didn’t win in 2020 because he was Joe Biden; he won – barely — because he wasn’t Donald Trump.  Democrats seem to continue to think that one wins by explaining the good things one has done.  All the people who think Mr. Biden is doing a good job – of which I am one – are already going to vote for him, and he’s only managing a dead heat.  If Mr. Biden was running against Nikki Haley, he’d be doing the same job he’s doing and his poll numbers would have to look up to see the Titanic.  One wins – a concept that Republicans not only grasp, but excel at – by scaring voters about the other guy.  Certainly, when Mr. Biden is responding to a direct question from a moderator, he should, as Ms. O’Malley Dillon suggested, “talk about what he’s done and what he’s fighting for.”  At the same time, when responding to some false or absurd declaration by Mr. Trump, I’d advise the President to … stick and move.

A very brief clip from one of America’s great film series  😉 :

How does this apply to a political debate?  Never forgetting that the fight judges are that narrow sliver of undecided voters in swing states, it means:  Don’t use your whole response time.  Quick salvos – you stick him — and move (i.e., shut up).  You make your point and look sharp at the same time.  Don’t rely on the moderators to fact check.  Mr. Trump is predictable – you know exactly how he’s going to come at you – just like Joe Frazier in his epic bouts with Muhammad Ali (I feel a little bad about this analogy; by all accounts, Mr. Frazier was a good guy 🙂 ).

• That he won the last election.

“He’s a whiner.  When he loses, he lies.  He lost over 60 election court challenges, many decided by Republican judges.  He has actually said we should terminate the Constitution because of his lie.  Think about that – someone who swore to protect and defend the Constitution who puts himself above the Constitution.  Do you want a president who’s either lying or delusional?”

• That he didn’t instigate the insurrection.

“He calls those that stormed the Capitol ‘hostages,’ and promises to pardon them.  [X#] of those now in jail said during their sentencing hearings that they only went to the Capitol because he told them to go.”

• My felony conviction was a miscarriage of justice – the Biden Justice Department was out to get me, and the New York jury was biased.

“My son was just convicted on charges brought by the same Justice Department.  Does it break my heart?  You bet.  Do I support my son?  You bet.  But we live under a system of laws.  I believe that our people who sit on juries – just ordinary citizens – take their responsibility seriously no matter where they live, and do their best to do their duty.”

• Any reference that the President lacks either the mental or physical stamina to do the job.

If mental:  “Let our staffs agree on a mental acuity test, and let’s both take it, and as long as you agree that the results will be published, let’s see who does better.”

If physical:  “Let’s go for a jog, and see who jogs further.  Or let’s hike a hill, and see who goes higher.  Or let’s ride bikes together, and see who goes further.  Let’s do it tomorrow.  I’m ready.” 

• Things were so good during my years as president.

“40 of the 44 Cabinet officials are refusing to support him for President.  [I’ve seen this number bandied about; it would obviously have to be confirmed before the President could use it.]  Does that sound like they think he did a good job?”

• Immigration is a mess.

“We had a bipartisan immigration bill in the Senate that I would have signed that was negotiated by a very conservative Republican Senator.  The two sides tried to work together – which is what our people want us to do.  It died because he killed it, wanted the campaign issue.  ‘Blame me,’ he said.  Well, blame him.  It’s his fault.”

• I’ll end the Ukraine war in one day.

“His idea of ending the Ukraine war is to give Putin what he wants, cut off our aid to Ukraine.  He always kowtows to Putin.  He has said he trusts Putin more than our intelligence services.  Think about that.  He’s said that he won’t necessarily defend a NATO nation if it’s attacked.  Think about that.  Freedom is about more than money.”

• Abortion:  Leave it to the states.

“This isn’t about states’ rights, this is about women’s reproductive rights.  In 2016, he said he’d appoint Supreme Court Justices that would overturn Roe v. Wade, and he did.  The rollback of women’s rights is in full swing.  Some state are even tampering with IVF.  If he returns to office, he’ll appoint even more judges that will destroy personal rights.  You know it and I know it.”

• Biden is weak on Israel – delaying arms shipments.

“I was in the Senate supporting Israel when Donald was facing his first prosecutions in New York for refusing to rent to African Americans.  We will always defend Israel’s right to exist.  We have sent them literally tons of munitions.  But we have to be aware of civilian casualties.  Thousands of innocents on both sides – Jewish and Palestinian – have lost their lives.  The bombs that Israel is complaining about each weigh 2,000 pounds – a ton.  Weapons like that kill indiscriminately.  We are not prepared to go there.”

• Medicare and Social Security

[No matter what Mr. Trump says – either that he’ll protect them or – as he has said in the past – the programs need to be modified]:  “He has said in the past that he intends to cut Social Security and Medicare.  You know the Republicans want to cut them – they’ve been after these programs ever since they were enacted.  We need to continue to negotiate for lower drug prices – which Republicans oppose — but I will not support any cuts to Social Security and Medicare benefits, and veto any that reach my desk.  We need to work on the deficit – but it’s only been made worse by the Republican tax cuts that have overwhelmingly favored rich Republican donors.”

You get the idea.  Mr. Trump has said and done so many hateful or outright dumb things over so many years, it’s easy to come up with short, punchy answers on Mr. Trump’s mishandling of COVID, his attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and a myriad of other issues.  I think the toughest challenge for Mr. Biden will be his response to criticisms of his handling of the economy; all that read these pages are well aware that I’m not an economist, but the nagging inflation we feel is seemingly part hangover from the last COVID relief package that ensured that the U.S. did not drop into recession, and the fact that wages have risen, providing Americans more spending money.  It is human nature for voters to not appreciate what didn’t happen and to take their higher wages for granted while focusing on what they see every day — higher prices.  Even so, the Biden Team has had a month to think about what the President will say, and with all the favorable statistics at its disposal – great jobs numbers, indisputably dropping inflation — presumably will craft a response.

I have the lingering concern that, as former Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina stated on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on June 25, Mr. Trump will have the easier time of it – he just has to look sane.  Even so, unless Mr. Biden makes a Ford-like gaffe (and again, I feel sorry making this analogy, since Mr. Ford was indeed a bright and good guy), there is at least a significant possibility that the state of the contest is likely to be in the same place tomorrow morning as it is today.

Sorry about the length of this note.

We’ll see what happens.