Memo to: Xi Jinping: Part I

[Sometimes, life’s realities intrude upon life’s avocations, and such has been the case for us in recent weeks; what follows is the majority of a hypothetical memo that I had intended to finish before U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met this week. (I wrote both leaders an email asking that they postpone their summit so I could finish this post, but they each declined. 😉) I will post the remainder at some point in the future, but you’ll undoubtedly get the gist – and, will, like Mr. Xi, no matter what you think of the substance, also be grateful for the break. 😊]

Memo to: Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China (the “PRC”)

From: Really Low Section Level Civil Servant Zhāng Sān (Chinese equivalent of “John Doe”)

Great One, if this memo has reached you, it means that it has passed through many hands, from my Section Leader up through his Area Leader, and ultimately to a Politburo member who arranged for it to reach your enlightened gaze. If my name is still on it, it means that all of these highly-esteemed Comrades find merit in what I offer, but want to be sure that I am the one who is shot if you are offended by my suggestions. (In deciding my fate, hopefully your most Merciful and Understanding Benevolence will take into account my youthful exuberance and that I sleep with my copy of Xi Jinping Thought under my pillow every night.)

This week, you will be participating in a Summit Meeting with Donald Trump, the President of the United States. It takes no acuity to observe that America is currently exhausted, in chaos, riven by acrimony. Hon. Trump has become increasingly unpopular over his first year and a half in office – somewhat surprisingly, not because of his moral turpitude, his obvious self-aggrandizement in a country that claims to eschew royalty, or his 2021 assault on the American democracy — but because of his mishandling of the American economy and his more recent grossly misguided foray against our ally, Iran. Even so, inexplicably, approximately a third of Americans still support him. It can be predicted that the toxically polarizing divisions now existing in the American electorate will not recede when he departs, because free speech has allowed partisan broadcasters espousing views from both sides of the American political spectrum, motivated by profit, to continue to stir animosity and discord. America is facing the pressures of an aging population while inexplicably forfeiting its appeal to immigrants – a geopolitical advantage we wish we had. America is deeply in debt, propped up by American, China and other international U.S. bond holders because America has been perceived as the safest place to invest. This will change. We can help it change.

I would pose that Hon. Trump’s undeniably erratic behavior has presented the PRC with an unprecedented opportunity to set a new world order over the remaining two and a half years of the Hon. Trump’s term. I set forth here what I see, from my very lowly position, may be the avenues for spreading the China Dream throughout the regions of the world. The regions are listed in terms of immediacy.

The Middle East. It is clear, given Hon. Trump’s mental degradation, brief attention span and the unpopularity of his Iran incursion, that he is looking for a way to extricate America from the quagmire he has created. Hon. Trump has created a mess. He appears to be a puppet of the Israelis, and gives every indication that he will walk away from the conflict with the region must more unstable than it was before he launched is war. If he does so, we have two advantages: the Iranians will listen to us – and no other nation — if we wish them to tamp down hostilities; and America’s heretofore allies in the region will be irate at the manner in which Hon. Trump has abandoned them to greater Iranian terrorism and economic risk than they faced before the war. Credible reporting indicates that Hon. Trump’s apparent half-heartedness in pursing his initiative has already significantly impaired America’s relationships with its allies in the region. America and Hon. Trump have lost face in the region because the Iranian regime has withstood America’s assertion of its military power and as a consequence of Hon. Trump’s inconsistent messages and unfulfilled threats. Hon. Trump’s obvious unwillingness to deploy ground troops – presumably because the inevitable resulting American casualties in an unpopular war will decimate whatever political support he still has – has shown him to be a paper tiger. China, because of its influence with Iran, can replace America as the arbiter of stability in the Middle East. In the meantime, China should continue whatever covert assistance to Iran it is now providing to enable Iran to continue its struggle. During the upcoming summit, Your Uniqueness might consider demanding that America immediately begin to let oil tankers bound for China proceed through the Strait of Hormuz, and, if insufficient American concessions are not forthcoming, threaten to embargo American produce (disproportionately adversely affecting Trump supporters) and its access to our rare earth minerals. (Hon. Trump’s predictable response will be to threaten to increase tariffs on Chinese goods. If he does so, such measures will hurt China temporarily, but will undoubtedly impair America’s ability to maintain its defensive capabilities, alarm global financial markets, and increase America’s inflation rate; Hon. Trump currently can’t politically afford these outcomes.)

Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Here again, Hon. Trump’s inexplicable disregard for America’s traditional strategic allies has provided us with an unexpected opportunity to expand our global influence. The American president’s trade wars with the European Union, his boorish and imperialistic behavior – his threat to annex Greenland by force will never be forgotten by the other NATO nations — and his willingness to essentially abandon the other NATO nations as they face what they consider a real Russian threat to their own security has created a rift, a distrust between the European nations and America, that many experts have opined will never be entirely repaired. America’s unwarranted Iranian incursion has exacerbated this ill will among Europeans by driving up their energy costs with the likelihood that an extended conflict will materially and significantly damage their economies. Our approach needs to be subtle. I will humbly suggest that despite our intent to maintain solidarity with Russia, with whom you have indicated that we have an unbreakable bond, expansion of Russian political control into western Europe is not in China’s interest. While true democracies provide an image of political freedom which the PRC must effectively counteract in messaging to our people, China needs an economically strong Europe to buy our goods. Without wishing to offend Your Uniqueness with being too candid, Comrade Putin, with whom I am sure you have the warmest relationship, leads the hollow shell of a once-proud nation; besides nuclear weapons — which you have seemingly made it clear to the Comrade that he cannot employ in his struggle against Ukraine – and admittedly sophisticated intelligence capabilities, Russia has limited geopolitical assets and few prospects of generating them. Its army has been embarrassingly exposed by the Ukrainians. While China would of course outwardly applaud a Russian conquest of Ukraine, and China clearly has an interest in covertly assisting Russia because our own prestige will be degraded if Russia is perceived to have been defeated by Ukraine, our interests are arguably best served if the struggle continues in its current status – depleting both Russian and European assets – which will make the former more dependent upon us for military assistance, and the latter more amenable to any trade proposals we will wish to make in the future. We should surreptitiously provide Russia the aid it needs to keep it going, but not enough to enable it to overpower the Ukrainians. In retrospect, Comrade Putin’s Ukraine invasion might be interpreted not only as an effort to reestablish the USSR but also as an attempt to achieve a greater level of parity with China among those nations choosing to be led by enlightened leaders rather than by their people; if so, its abysmal strategic failure has reduced Russia to a position of China’s favored supplicant. If necessary, we should make it absolutely clear to Comrade Putin – similar to the manner in which America asserted its precedence among western democracies by instructing Great Britain and France to cease and desist in their Middle East invasion during the 1956 Suez Crisis — that China does not consider it in China’s interest for Russia to attempt any further reestablishment of the USSR, and that any Russian expansionist designs will HALT at the current NATO border. One may suggest that over the coming decade Europeans will become increasingly desirous of dealing with us economically because they’ll be seeking a counterweight to America – as long as they see China as a check on Russian expansion, and China’s actions do not cause European leaders to view China as a national security threat.

South America and Africa. These continents are obviously somewhat less important geopolitically and each includes too many countries to enable each to be dealt with specifically in this memorandum, but again, Hon. Trump’s obviously racist and one-sided mercenary instincts provide us with opportunities. Hon. Trump’s attempt to maintain a sphere of influence over South America to the exclusion of China – his so called, “Donroe Doctrine” – is a joke. In Brazil, his feud with its leftist leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and his willingness to interfere in Brazilian domestic affairs and legal and democratic processes in support of “the Trump of South America,” Brazil’s former rightest president, Juan Bolsanaro, has alienated South America’s largest and most powerful country. I will also suggest that even America’s recent deposition of Venezuela’s leftist president, Nicolás Maduro, will backfire on the Americans. While America’s capture of Sr. Maduro was originally viewed by ordinary Venezuelans as an act of liberation, by Hon. Trump leaving the entire Maduro regime in place – deferring popular elections, turning his back on and thus insulting the opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, after she agreed to share her Nobel Peace Prize with Hon. Trump — in return for Sr. Maduro’s minions’ willingness to provide America access to Venezuelan oil (which Hon. Trump somehow, inexplicably, considers “American oil”) will ultimately turn Venezuelan public opinion against America, making it a fertile ground for us. Likewise, one of the first initiatives of Hon. Trump’s Administration – “DOGE” — cut out aid programs to Africa considered vital to protect Africans’ health, and Hon. Trump’s well-publicized racist reference to African countries as “Shithole Countries” has undoubtedly created sufficient disfavor among African nations that China, through deft diplomacy and economic aid, can establish primacy on the African continent as well.

North America. Since the continent is America’s direct sphere of influence, and the economies of Canada and Mexico rely heavily upon trade with America, there is only so much that can be done within this region, but even here, there are opportunities. Hon. Trump’s imperious approach to Mexico – recall his highly offensive attempt to rename the Gulf of Mexico, the “Gulf of America,” and that not long ago America was accused by the Mexican government of conducting operations against Mexican cartels without the Mexican government’s knowledge – taken together with his offensive trade policies and his disparaging and obviously racist attitudes and references to Latin peoples have alienated Mexico sufficiently that I would suggest that deft Chinese diplomacy may enable us to establish greater economic ties with Mexico, which will be eager to have some counterweight against America. Canada, of course, will be the most difficult. Although Canadian Prime Minister Carney clearly has no use for Hon. Trump, and is seeking to link Canada more closely to the EU and establish even deeper ties for Canada within NATO, the Canadians’ geographic, ethnic, and cultural proximity to America enable Canadians, more than any other people, to conceptually separate Hon. Trump and his administration from “America” and the American people. Even so, Hon. Trump’s offensive calls to make Canada America’s “51^st state” and one-sided trade policies have undoubtedly increased anti-American sentiment among some Canadians, and Canadians have now undoubtedly recognized that a large share of the American electorate is gullible, easily persuaded by demagogues. Their government may well embrace deeper exchanges of commodities with China as a counterweight to future American instability and unreliability. We should encourage these sentiments by granting as favorable a trade status to Canadian products and produce as our own domestic circumstances can afford.

Your Uniqueness, if you have found any merit in what I have placed before you, I will beg your sufferance for my delay in providing you with my additional very low and obviously very uninformed and unworthy views supplementing those I have had the temerity to place before you; if you haven’t, I am confident that I will have no need to further ponder how China might manage the nations with which we share our own immediate sphere of the world, and our runaway province Taiwan. Just keep in mind: You are a Manchester City fan. Amazingly, so am I! Go City!

This Weekend, It’s Hungary

As the news media trains its spotlight this weekend on the efforts of Moe, Larry, and Curly … er … Vice President J.D. Vance, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff (a real estate developer by trade) and Presidential Son-in-Law Jared Kushner (a real estate developer whose true specialty has seemingly become exploiting his relationship with his father-in-law) to reach an enduring peace settlement with the Iranian regime in Pakistan, I suggest that the weekend event having the greatest impact on the future of human democracy is not there – where I am willing to wager there will be a lot of diddling around, with very little progress — but rather in the outcome of the election taking place tomorrow – April 12 — in Hungary, in which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his party, democratic in name, autocratic in fact, are in what has been reported to be a close contest against challenger Péter Magyar and his supporters. (Apparently, if it is indeed a close race, Mr. Orbán and his people haven’t yet gained the level of control over his nation’s voting processes mastered by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the lately-deposed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.)

[An (long) aside on the Iran talks, nonetheless. There has been a fair amount of speculation in the press as to why President Donald Trump disregarded one of the primary tenets of international diplomacy by choosing Moe … er, Mr. Vance to lead the American delegation in the talks with the Iranians; the conventional wisdom is that using a high level emissary in preliminary negotiation raises the risks and ramifications arising from any failure. One might also have the concern that Mr. Vance was a poor choice because he has been in politics about a minute and a half and obviously has no meaningful background in the nuances of Middle East politics, even compared to Larry and C … er, Messrs. Witkoff and Kushner. My guess: Mr. Trump, who even as he degrades, undoubtedly retains very sophisticated instincts of self-preservation, is well aware that as his Iranian adventure has clearly gone sideways, Mr. Vance, in an effort to maintain his standing with the MAGA base for a 2028 presidential run, has leaked to whomever will listen that he was against the invasion from the beginning (such a leak, even is such was the case, is the primary No-No of presidential – vice presidential relations in any administration). Now, Mr. Vance has been roped in to the Trump policy. If the talks succeed, the success is Mr. Trump’s; if the talks fail, the failure is Mr. Vance’s; and if Mr. Trump doesn’t like what Mr. Vance achieves, the President can disown it and publicly politically emasculate Mr. Vance. As little sympathy as I have for Mr. Trump, if that’s what he’s thinking by sending Mr. Vance to Pakistan, pretty clever. A longer post on Mr. Vance will hopefully appear in these pages before too long, but right now, if I have ventured accurately, what the President is doing to his Vice President couldn’t be happening to a more-deserving guy. 😉].

On to Hungary. As all who care are aware, Mr. Orbán came to power by democratic means well over a decade ago but since that time has taken extensive measures to close off any challenge to his right-wing party, and reporting is too extensive not to conclude that he has made Hungary – a member of NATO and the European Union – a tool of Russian President Vladimir Putin and done all he can to hinder NATO’s and the EU’s assistance to Ukraine’s attempt to hold off the Russian invasion. (There are credible reports that high Hungarian officials under Mr. Orbán’s command have been communicating the details of NATO’s strategies to defend Ukraine to Russian officials.) (On a less strategic note, I also think that one can fairly surmise that during Mr. Orbán’s years in power, while he has espoused Hungarian nationalism and railed against the fall of Western Civilization, progressives and immigrants, he hasn’t let too many helpings of goulash pass him by. 😉)

There are obviously sufficient concerns about the election’s outcome in the Orbán camp and among the world’s autocratic regimes that the Trump Regime dispatched Mr. Vance to campaign for Mr. Orbán. (We’ll let that maneuver, an unthinkable diplomatic faux pas in any other administration, par for the course for the Trump Regime, go by). I am most struck by the irony and hypocrisy in reports that Mr. Orbán is claiming that Mr. Magyar’s campaign is being assisted by sinister outside forces – when he clearly has the forces of the Putin and Trump Regimes on his side. Now, that takes some chutzpah.

From reading I did some time ago, but concede have not confirmed for this note, I understand that neither NATO or the EU have mechanisms for expelling any member once admitted. If that is indeed the case – speaking as someone who spent a lot of his career drafting commercial agreements, for which exit clauses were almost the first issues one considered – such were colossal oversights. That said, I understand that no matter what the level of frustration that Mr. Orbán’s obstructive behavior is causing NATO and the EU at this juncture, no move could be made by these organizations at this time to expel Hungary; such would be all the pretext that Mr. Trump – such an obvious supporter of Mr. Orbán — might need to pull the United States out of NATO (in fact, if not in law).

What transpires if Mr. Magyar and his supporters do prevail – I suspect that the polling done in the race, which I understand favors the challengers, is probably less than truly precise – remains to be seen. Some observers are declaring that such a victory would be a significant blow to alt-right movements across the globe. That said, the first step is to see if they do indeed prevail. I have seen commentators opine that even if it is clear that Mr. Orbán loses, he will not go quietly; he certainly has a seditious roadmap to follow, provided by a kindred spirit across the ocean. (Ironically, as much as Putin will want to help Mr. Orbán stay in power, I’m sure that the Russian President sees that Russia cannot overtly attempt to maintain Mr. Orbán in power; such would be considered an attack on a NATO nation. 😊)

We’ll see what happens. Let us hope for the best.

The Grotesque Shambles

Sit back, take a breath, and for a moment try to viscerally soak in the totality of the grotesque shambles that the Crazy Geezer has wrought in less than fifteen months.

Pondering Mr. Trump’s Easter Post

As all who care are aware, on Easter Sunday Morning, Donald Trump – you know, our president – posted the following on his social media account (no “*ing,” since he didn’t use any):

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

This is one of those times that I just can’t resist stating the obvious (the most obvious observation first: Mr. Trump probably wasn’t really sincerely extending praise to Allah 😉):

The Iranian Regime will not be cowed by Mr. Trump’s bluster.
The Iranian Regime hopes that Mr. Trump will carry through on his threat, which could make him a pariah in the international community if he fails to restrict any strike to military-related targets, and could very well turn much of the Iranian populace, which heretofore has opposed the Regime, against America.
Mr. Trump seems to have placed himself in a box; if the Ayatollahs fail to accede to the President’s demands and Mr. Trump fails to follow through with a dramatic strike that corresponds to the emphatic nature of his threat, Mr. Trump’s inevitable future threats will lack all credibility with the Iranian regime.
The tone of the Easter post made clear to the Iranian Regime (as well as to the rest of us) that despite his protestations, Mr. Trump is terrified by what the Iranian Regime’s continuing hold on the Strait of Hormuz will do to the global economy; he is desperate; he wants/needs a quick deal much more than they do.
We have an unstable, capricious, deranged, delusional, diminishing, desperate geezer in the most powerful office in the world.

I’d love the opportunity to ask the author of The Art of the Deal: When you see that the other side is panicking and anxious for a deal, do you back down and give the other side what it wants — or do you exploit your advantage?

Acknowledging that the following inquiry invades the realm of the eminent psychologists whom I am honored sometimes read these notes, it nonetheless does not seem unreasonable for us laypeople to wonder: Is the President of the United States … going looney?

While pundits have been understandably primarily commenting on the ramifications of Mr. Trump’s behaviors for the outcome of the current Iranian conflict, I have heard at least a couple who have made larger observations in different contexts from which one could infer what I, and I perhaps you, have been thinking: For a second, put aside Iran, and even concerns specifically about Mr. Trump’s fascist impulses. How do we get through another almost three years with this guy? And if he somehow leaves the presidency before his term is up, how do we survive J.D. Vance, whom I would suggest would, in many ways, even be worse?

Those Who Cannot Remember the Past …

[Let’s start with reality: the Iranian Ayatollahs are bad guys, and America’s interests and global stability would be advanced if there was regime change in Iran. That said, given President Donald Trump’s recent claim that his Administration and the Ayatollahs were far along in substantive talks to end the current war – a typical Trumpian transparent effort to calm the financial markets — while at the same time the Ayatollahs were denying that any talks at all were occurring, a close friend asked me which side I thought was lying. My response: “They’re probably all lying.” It turned out that I was right: subsequent credible sources reported that exchanges were occurring, but the sides were so far apart substantively that no actual progress was being made.]

Various matters have prevented me from burdening you with much in recent weeks, and a more detailed note of impressions regarding the Trump Regime’s excursion into Iran remains incomplete; but recent credible reports regarding the Regime’s movement of Marine Expeditionary Units and 82^nd Airborne troops into position to land in Iran – I have heard amounting to about 1,000 forces overall — has prompted this note.

We have seen time and time again –including in our own Revolutionary War – that in war, if the locals can stick it out long enough, they have an advantage over a larger, more established, better equipped, invader. To cite a maxim that is both cliché and true: the invaders need to win in order to win; the locals win if they don’t lose. As long as locals can effectively inflict sustained damage on an invader through asymmetrical means, they’re winning. Sooner or later, the invader feels that the effort isn’t worth the expense, and goes home. The South Vietnamese government we put our faith in for over a decade was a sham; the North Vietnamese simply wore us down, waited us out. The Taliban were back in charge in Afghanistan before we were even gone.

Let’s for this note put aside concerns about democracy and morality presented by the Trump Regime and simply look at substantive policy. I have seen reported by multiple credible sources that Mr. Trump considered his antiseptic removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro a model for what he thought he could accomplish through military force in Iran. If true, such boggles the mind. The Iranians ain’t the Venezuelans. Not understanding that is about the dumbest substantive policy mistake we’ve seen Donald Trump make in his conduct of the presidency (and that’s saying a lot). Sr. Maduro and the Trump Regime’s current puppet, Delcy Rodríguez, are at bottom small-time spineless grifters interested in lining their own pockets, easily rolled by a bigger bully — the kind of people that the Trump Regime understands, because they are of the same ilk. Mr. Trump, despite his years as president, will apparently never get that many political and religious leaders don’t think like he does – that they may enjoy wealth and gold trinkets, but they viscerally prioritize power and (sometimes) principle over trappings and comfort. Putting aside partisanship, if Mr. Trump had called me before the invasion and asked me my reaction, out of concern for our troops, I would have said, “Mr. President, don’t do it. First, believing Netanyahu’s (widely reported) intelligence that the Iranian people will rise up if you attack is fool’s gold. We had intelligence that the Cuban people would rise up against Castro if Kennedy ordered the Bay of Pigs invasion. We sponsored an invasion, and they didn’t. If John Bolton’s book from your first Administration is at all accurate, you had intelligence that the Venezuelans were going to rise up against Maduro in 2019, and you were ready to go in to help topple the Maduro government when they did. They didn’t, so you couldn’t. If you attack Iran, you’ll be on your own. The Ayatollahs aren’t the Venezuelans; in this context, they are the Russians. They will not be cowed by whatever weaponry you bring to bear; they will not give up; they will fight to the last man. Have your staff give you a one-pager on what happened to Napoleon and then Hitler when they decided to invade Russia. Then decide whether you want to start a shooting war in which you give the Iranians no option but to retaliate.”

We invaded. No regular Iranian citizens stepped forward. As this is typed, the Ayatollahs remain defiant and bellicose.

Donald Trump, given his obsession with TV and financial markets and his addiction to the short-term, is incredibly susceptible to asymmetrical warfare, and although the Ayatollahs hate all of America, I’ll bet you a dollar that they now hate Mr. Trump the most – and understand how to most hurt him. They are undoubtedly aware of polls indicating that a significant majority of Americans consider Mr. Trump’s Iran offensive to be one of choice, not of necessity, and accordingly recognize that such means that if Mr. Trump’s invasion goes wrong, he’ll take as much blame with the American people as they will. Next: this war is real, not a reality show or publicity stunt [i.e., not the kind of macho movie/TV conflict that the Trump people (perhaps most embarrassingly, moronic Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth) relish — Arnold Schwarzenegger intoning, “I’ll be back”]. The Iranians are almost certainly going to avoid engaging us in the open like the thousands of mindless generic movie extras killed by Sylvester Stallone’s fictional John Rambo while Rambo extricated those he had fictionally come to save. They can pick their spots; they win by defeating Mr. Trump with the American people. I would suggest that they only need to pursue two avenues:

First — as they’re obviously already doing — they effect damage, through drones or other materiel, on shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz on a regular-enough basis to completely disrupt global energy markets (and thus, the global economy), sending American and global gas and other costs skyrocketing. Who are Americans going to blame?

Second – what really prompted this post – they wait for Mr. Trump to land troops. When Mr. Trump isn’t getting his way, his first instinct is to double down. I fear that the Ayatollahs want Mr. Trump to land troops on their soil. For all the talk we’ve heard from pundits over the last few weeks about how the Pentagon has repeatedly “gamed out” an invasion of Iran, does anybody think that over the last five decades, the Iranians haven’t “gamed out” how to respond to any American invasion? 1,000 American military personnel will present no credible threat to the Iranian Regime – but will provide it with a target-rich environment. Our people will be sitting ducks. How long will it take for an Iranian drone to hit 20, 30, 100 of our troops clustered in one place? If such occurs, I would suggest that this will be a rare instance – since so many Americans consider this a war of Mr. Trump’s choice, not a war of necessity – that the vast majority of Americans will blame Mr. Trump as much as they do the Iranians for the deaths.

If so, Mr. Trump loses where he cares the most: both the financial markets and a significant share of the American support he still retains. The Iranians win by not losing.

It is hard not to be deeply concerned that Mr. Trump’s misguided reliance on the American military’s sophisticated but specific expertise to eliminate the global threat presented by Iran will in the long run amount to no more than the equivalent of kicking over an anthill that one encounters on a grassy plain: i.e., a maneuver which successfully destroys the ants at the top of the hill, but leaves hundreds or thousands of unharmed ants below — and in a position to establish other hills throughout the plain. Although we have unquestionably been in a cold war with Iran since the Ayatollahs assumed control of the nation in the 1970s, I fear that we are now going to be engaged in a somewhat hotter conflict for the remainder of the lifetime of my Baby Boomer generation. That said, I pray that at least in the short run, for the sake of our troops who could otherwise soon be capriciously placed in harm’s way, our delusional, narcissistic Manchild President will find a way out of this box of his own making.

On Ms. Noem and Mr. Mullin

Let’s reflect just very briefly on the political demise of former Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem. The first reflection is one I’ve already made here, and with regard to Ms. Noem, to me the most important: I was genuinely sorry to see her go. She had become such a caricature for the Trump Regime’s Nazi-like immigration enforcement activities that I considered every day she remained at her post a day in which millions of moderate Americans would be reminded that they had to vote against Republicans in the upcoming November elections, thus strengthening the chances for American democracy to survive. I had never seen the $220 million ICE recruitment video starring Ms. Noem that was reportedly pivotal in getting her fired before the furor over it erupted during her recent Senate hearing; now that I have, my primary reaction was sympathy for Ms. Noem’s horse, who had to be both chagrined at being part of such an embarrassing spectacle and worried that Ms. Noem would shoot it when the video was completed, although at the same time being heartened that it wasn’t the biggest horse’s a– … er … behind … in the production.

On to U.S. OK Sen. Markwayne Mullin, whom President Donald Trump is nominating to replace Ms. Noem as Homeland Secretary. First, I truly wonder whether Mr. Mullin’s parents simply couldn’t decide whether he looked like a “Mark” or a “Wayne” when he was born. Based upon what we’ve seen of and learned about him since Mr. Trump put his name forth, it would appear that the Senator’s parents would have been closer to the mark (so to speak 😉) had they named him, “Rocco,” “Spike,” or “Hugger,” but all of us parents understand that no one can predict these things in advance. 😊

There are those who might rationally oppose Mr. Mullin’s confirmation as Homeland Secretary based upon his comments on Fox News about Alex Pretti the day after ICE Agents murdered Mr. Pretti in Minneapolis: “A deranged individual who came in to cause massive damage with a loaded pistol was shot and killed.” For Mr. Mullin to make such a declaration after there was sufficient video available to establish that such was false propaganda would, in a rational world, be sufficient to give any ethical Senator considering Mr. Mullin’s nomination concerns about Mr. Mullin’s judgement and veracity, but given the Trump Regime’s Rogue’s Gallery Cabinet, such a misrepresentation simply means that Mr. Mullin will fit right in. If I were a Senator, I’d vote to confirm Mr. Mullin. I still believe in the principle I first articulated in these pages years ago: any nominee of a President to a senior Administration post should be confirmed, subject to two criteria: whether the candidate is objectively qualified for the position; and the absence of any other objective disqualifying criteria (prior criminal conviction, demonstrable drug abuse problem, etc.). Although Mr. Mullin reportedly has no background in homeland security issues, it is seemingly likely that he is no less qualified than any other nominee that Mr. Trump might put forward, and he is arguably less abjectly ill-suited for Homeland Security than Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard are for their offices. Additionally, as we are all well aware, immigration policy is set by Mr. Trump and his (let’s be gentle) autocratically-inclined Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller; whomever they put in the Homeland Security seat is simply going to execute their bidding. The nominee’s subjective leanings – e.g., in this instance that he is arguably going to be too hardline on immigration policy – shouldn’t, in my view, be part of the assessment. I hope that Democrats don’t spend too much emotion trying to contest a confirmation which, given Republican control of the Senate and Mr. Mullin’s being a sitting Senator, is a done deal.

Two final impressions: the first – a parallel if not a repetition of the comment above regarding Ms. Noem — is that Mr. Mullin’s replacement of Ms. Noem, taken together with the Regime’s ICE’s recent withdrawal from “Blue Cities,” will almost certainly release some of the pent-up steam against the Regime’s thuggish immigration enforcement policies that has built up during the first part of this year. I consider this release, this far from November, to be an unfortunate outcome for our democracy.

Second, if I could make any recommendation to Mr. Mullin, it would be this: the Regime’s attack on Iran, no matter how one views it from a foreign policy perspective, has changed the fundamentals of your job. Spend less of your and your staff’s energy on chasing down illegal immigrants who haven’t committed crimes following their initial illegal entry, and immediately bring back any experts in Middle East terrorism that Elon Musk’s moronic DOGE purges may have terminated from the federal government. Start consulting Homeland Security veterans from the George W. Bush and Obama Administrations about how to best to detect and keep Americans safe from terrorist activities within the U.S. by Iranian sleeper cells. To anyone who doesn’t believe that such quiescent cells haven’t been here for years, awaiting instructions from the Iranian Regime: I envy you your life in CandyLand. Hopefully, Mr. Mullin recognizes that he doesn’t have that luxury.

We’ll see what happens.

Two Impressions on the Epstein Files

[It has occurred to me, given little NPR’s recent reports that the Trump Regime’s Justice Department has failed to release an Epstein victim’s witness statements allegedly describing that victim’s encounters with President Donald Trump, that the mighty New York Times had to be a bit disgruntled at being scooped. I share a bit of the Times’ chagrin. 😉 What follows was substantially completed before NPR’s recent publication, deferred for other posts. In entering it now, I’m supposing: Better late than never.]

You certainly don’t need a recitation of the facts surrounding the evil perpetrated by the late Jeffrey Epstein and those who collaborated with him. Nor do you need a rundown on the continuing rank hypocrisy and obstructionism – most glaring under the Trump Administration, but certainly not confined to the Trump Administration – of the various law enforcement agencies over many years who have professed sympathy for Epstein’s victims while mostly doing nothing to enable them to obtain justice. Only two impressions.

At the time this is typed, in excess of 3 million of what has been reported to be between 5 and 6 million records in the Trump Regime’s Department of Justice’s investigative files on Epstein have been released, and the Department has announced that it will not release the last 2 million. It’s hard to see how release of these last remaining records can be compelled; Congress could pass a law, but it’s already done that, and the Regime clearly couldn’t care less. I have also seen it reported that President Donald Trump’s name appears in the files over 1000 times. Although it is undisputed that he maintained a relationship with Epstein over quite a span of years, the President has vigorously denied that he ever engaged in any illicit activities with Epstein’s underage female victims (or, let’s call them what they were: girls). At the same time, it’s clear that Mr. Trump’s toadies at the Department of Justice will follow whatever he orders. The crux of it is that Mr. Trump – his own savviest media advisor – knows – he knows – that stonewalling on this issue is terribly politically damaging. If the President was confident that he would not be hurt too badly by the files’ full disclosure, one can tenably surmise based upon his past behavior that the last 2 million records would have been released by now. So I ponder: what is the one thing that a man might fear who has been able to maintain the rabid support of his base despite his audio-taped indication that he could “grab [women] by the p—y,” despite his negligently causing hundreds of thousands of unnecessary COVID-related American deaths, despite his inexplicably obsequious relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite his 34 felony convictions, and despite his incitement of an traitorous attack on our nation’s Capitol? What is the one revelation that a man, who has politically survived his undisputed commission of so many detestable actions with his core base intact, might fear would finally turn his rabid supporters against him?

I’ll leave that one to you.

As to the second impression: I never thought I’d say this; anyone who knows me or reads these notes may well understandably consider me oblivious, paranoid, senseless as a goose, or dumber than a rock – or all of the above, plus dozens of other similar apt descriptions — but neither you nor I have probably generally considered me to be … naïve. But I was. All these years, I scoffed at conspiracist groups who maintained that the world was being run by a global cabal of elite pedophiles. The Epstein files that have been released seemingly indicate that there does indeed exist an international group of wealthy business and government elites across the political spectrum who have and do indeed believe that they are entitled to abuse and destroy the lives of the vulnerable for their own pleasure. Although it is still uncertain which of the powerful men coming into Epstein’s orbit exploited the women trafficked by Epstein, it seems clear that given the number of men named and the number of Epstein victims that have come forward, that many, many men were involved. While these conspiracists were clearly wrong with regard to some vital particulars – the pedophilia cabal they warned against obviously does not include all of the globally politically and financial powerful, it is certainly not limited to left wing elites, and (wait for it) Donald Trump is most certainly not the man who is going to bring it to justice for the victims — arguably one must concede that this particular conspiracy theory was not entirely without a grain of reality.

I never believed it. One or two megarich and powerful monsters, sure; we have constant evidence of the evil in the world. But the kind of concerted and broad ring that Mr. Epstein appears to have developed and serviced? I never thought that such could actually exist. I was confident that these conspiracists were entirely wacked out, howling at the moon about global pedophilia rings while standing in a Los Angeles parking lot waiting to prove that the 1969 lunar landing was a hoax or scanning the sky for Italian lasers altering voting machines.

It would appear that their claims of the existence of an international pedophilia ring weren’t entirely wrong, after all.

The State of the Union I’m Hoping For

This post runs contrary to my general rule against writing and posting on the same day; it arises from an email exchange I had with a close friend earlier today.

President Donald J. Trump delivers his Presidential State of the Union Address to Congress this evening. All who care are aware that Mr. Trump’s conduct of the presidency during the first year of his second term has been so disreputable that his approval rating has plummeted among all voter segments save his hardest-core supporters, and in even that segment he has sustained erosion. I have heard commentators opine in recent days that because the speech will be watched by a wide swath of Americans across the political spectrum, the President’s advisors see this State of the Union Address as perhaps his last opportunity (think about that; he’s only been back in office a year) to right his sinking popularity and at the same time provide a campaign lifeline to Republican candidates representing swing areas (and possibly not-normally-swing areas) who seemingly currently face the prospect of a political bloodbath. To achieve the result that Mr. Trump’s advisors and his terrified Republican officeholder supplicants hope for, Mr. Trump will need to project a reasonable tone, acknowledge the majority of Americans’ fears about their economic circumstances and the country’s future while laying out specific proposals to address these Americans’ financial plight, express regret about the Supreme Court’s recent ruling vitiating his tariff policy without descending into vituperation, point out the way his administration has shut down the border while perhaps indicating that ICE will be adopting a lighter touch in its activities within our cities, etc., etc., etc.

I am confident that these Republican worthies (obviously using that term loosely) fervently hope he will avoid a harsh, combative tone of denial, or claim that America is in a golden age, or claim that America is loved around the world, or any declaration that affordability is a hoax, or any declaration that his administration intends to take steps to prevent widespread voter fraud in the 2026 elections, or personal attacks on Democrats, or racially-tinged attacks on immigrants, or above all, personal attacks on the Supreme Court – including the two Justices he appointed — that recently struck down his fairly unpopular tariff policy. (I admit that I felt perverse amusement when following the adverse decision, Mr. Trump referred to the three Republican-appointed Justices who rejected his claim to broad tariffing authority as “lapdogs”; I considered his comment an unwittingly indictment of the three Republican-appointed Justices who did vote to uphold his tariffing authority – Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh – who are, indeed, lapdogs.)

You and I are both sufficiently aware of my fallibility, but I am nonetheless going to make a straightforward pronouncement here: Mr. Trump is at this point congenitally incapable of performing in the manner his advisors wish and his Republican supplicants need to politically survive. He will claim that under his leadership, that our union is strong; that the economy is strong; that the world is more secure, and he alone has been able to bring peace in about 100 countries (none of which actually seem to be at peace 😉); that he does intend to take steps to avoid voter fraud in certain areas (all Democratic strongholds); that ICE has made the country safer; and that the Supreme Court has acted shamefully and hurt our country by its recent tariff ruling, and he intends to impose more tariffs. In short, he will adopt the combative tone and say all the things that his advisors and fellow Republicans want him to avoid.

Although I have continued with my recent months’ habit of not watching or listening to Mr. Trump’s lies and loathsome diatribes – my heart is not that strong – I intend to watch the address tonight, hoping for the best – the best being that Mr. Trump will indeed perform as I have predicted. Although one is heartsick at the hardship, the lost and ruined lives, the irreparable damage to innocent children’s psyches that this Regime has cruelly wrought, it is seemingly clear that each report of a new despicable outrage by the Regime – from its ICE’s Nazi-like activities and the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, to its continued refusal to even acknowledge let alone address many Americans’ economic plight, to its continued refusal to provide impoverished Americans with healthcare financial assistance, to its refusal to follow the Epstein law and provide justice to the Epstein victims, to its threats to invade Greenland, to its attacks on its own Supreme Court (which must make even some semi-perceptive MAGAs wonder if he’s acting legally), to its plastering Mr. Trump’s name on and flying banners with Mr. Trump’s picture from various federal buildings, to … you get it (I apologize if I have left out any of the Regime’s shameless activities you find the most offensive) – has, at one level, become means to an end. As British Prime Minister Winston Churchill told the House of Commons in June, 1940 – and I make this analogy intentionally, and not lightly – “We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering.” At this point, I don’t want to see Attorney General Pam Bondi, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., or Epstein-implicated Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick fired; they serve the same emotive rallying point for Regime opponents as MAGAs used to point to former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. If Mr. Trump was savvy enough to jettison some of these subordinates, it would take some of the steam out of the Regime’s opposition.

Returning to a theme you have heard me repeat here endlessly: given the majority of American voters’ selection of Donald Trump in November of 2024, I – like our European allies — have lost and will probably never regain confidence in the good sense of the majority of American citizens. It is clear that in order to get the pivotal segment of our citizens who inexplicably thought Mr. Trump was the solution to their difficulties to continue to see reality, they must be regularly confronted with Regime outrages. Ironically – and at the same time unfortunately and happily — Mr. Trump seems willing to accommodate this need.

I would suggest that we must face the fact that at this point there is no chance – zero — that we as a nation are in a position to face the myriad of pressing substantive problems we should be addressing – the economic insecurity of a large percentage of our people, what meaningful work can be developed for our citizens whose skill sets may be less well suited to the automated future, our federal debt, climate change, artificial intelligence, progress in the health sciences, the improvement and broadening of our education systems, a coherent immigration policy, our proper role in world affairs, you name it – until we manage to stifle the Regime of ignorance, denial and autocracy now governing our country. We need to put our substantive concerns aside, and for the present absorb the future Regime outrages that seem likely to further distress the pivotal middle segment of our citizens as setbacks that might ultimately enable us to preserve our democracy. Let the President continue to blithely deny that many Americans are suffering economically. Let him idiotically withhold vaccines, moronically declare Tylenol unsafe for pregnant women. Let him impose more illegal tariffs. Let him withhold the last 2 million Epstein documents. Let him fly his picture from every building in Washington. Indeed, let him bulldoze the West Wing, erect a castle, and paint his face on it. These are arguably means to an end.

There are, of course, two exceptions to this rule. The first is that we don’t want any more people’s lives sacrificed to Regime violence. The second involves the measures that the Regime is almost certainly going to attempt to subvert free and fair 2026 federal elections. These must be contested by all legal and peaceful means available. I’ll venture that the culmination is likely to arrive this summer when Mr. Trump knows — when it absolutely sinks in – that a fair election will be a tidal wave against him; that he will be facing circumstances, unlike his loss in 2020 — which, although clear, was undeniably close in states such as Georgia and Wisconsin – where most citizens will intuitively know from their own feelings that despite Regime claims, Republican defeats weren’t “rigged,” weren’t due to “voter fraud.”

That will be our most dangerous period. At the start of the Regime’s term, I thought the struggle might be coming in 2028; as I’ve indicated more recently, I think that it will be upon us in 2026. (Get ready to attend your next local NO KINGS rally on March 28. 😊) In a positive statement in which I wholeheartedly believe: if we can get through it, we are still the United States of America, the most democratic nation in the history of the earth, which despite its faults has through its goodwill, industry, and initiative done more good for more people than any other nation in history and solved the greatest number of the greatest problems humankind has faced. The substantive and political challenges we now confront can be addressed – if not entirely during my generation’s lifetime, during the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren — if we manage to secure our democracy.

We’ll see what happens tonight.

Mr. Warhol Predicted our Government’s Failure

This is simply a plaint, nothing you haven’t already realized yourself, indeed something I think I may have already noted here at some time in the past, but one of the perks of having a site like this is the opportunity to state the obvious when you wish to. Although one could decry the injustice inherent in a couple of the observations made below about the complexion and standing of our early members of Congress, I don’t think anyone can dispute their accuracy.

This also the rare post that I think any American of any political persuasion across our entire spectrum would agree with.

A large share of our people are currently bemoaning the fact that our toothless Congress – some would instead characterize the members of Congress as lacking other body parts than teeth – are refusing to stand up to President Donald Trump although they – Republicans as well as Democrats – are well aware that his excesses are dangerous for our country and do little or nothing to address the issues of greatest concern to their constituents. Instead, they cower in corners and whisper. Why? We’ve brought it upon ourselves with our descent into the social media snippet, reality TV, hyperbole, glitz, and Let No Complex Thought Be Left Unthought Culture. The trouble with our Congress today is not that it is filled with people who fundamentally believe in MAGAism or Democratic Socialism, or in White Christian America or Black Lives Matter, or in Regulation or Deregulation, or in Abortion or Choice, or in Guns or No Guns, or in anything else.

They believe in Andy Warhol.

Mr. Warhol, as virtually all are aware – at least of his imputed observation, if not that it is attributed to him – was quoted by Time Magazine in 1967 as saying, “In the future, everyone will be world-famous for 15 minutes.” It doesn’t matter that it is now disputed that Mr. Warhol actually ever uttered his most famous statement, or if he did, that he was the first to say it; it will forever be attributed to him.

What matters is the observation’s continuing resonance – much truer today than when the quote appeared in Time almost 60 years ago. Our members of Congress need – apparently, lust for – fame. They need everybody to know that they’re somebody. Apparently, simply being a member of Congress makes them somebody. That’s why we have no functioning federal legislative branch.

I will assert that the situation we have today was unfathomable for the Founding Fathers. In a time when only white men could vote and, practically speaking, only rich white men could literally afford to donate their time – that is indeed what they were doing — to participating in the federal government, the notion that these proud landowners would totally obsequiously surrender the prerogatives of their Congressional offices to the President of the United States, or change their views to stoop to pander their constituents – the vast, vast majority of whom were incredibly poorer and incredibly less versed in the matters of the country and the world than they were — was inconceivable to them. In the Declaration of Independence, a number had literally pledged their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor to the founding of a new national enterprise. They didn’t enter Congress to become somebody; each of them already was somebody. Their sentiments upon entering Congress may be best expressed in the words of another politician in another nation at almost the same time — Irish-Anglo Edmund Burke, considered the founder of modern Conservativism (you know, the real kind), who once told his Parliament constituents that a representative’s “ … unbiased opinion, his mature judgement, his enlightened conscience, he ought not to sacrifice to you, to any man, or to any set of men living. Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.”

Now, we have a bunch of gutless lickspittles who pander to the basest tastes of their constituents so they can keep their tender tushies in warm cushy Congressional seats. It is clear that the lust to keep these seats isn’t about the actual political power or purpose they provide; they have entirely ceded these to the President of their party (startlingly true right now with the particularly unscrupulous and ruthless Mr. Trump, but just as true on the other side of the political aisle when the president is a popular Democrat). At this point, it seemingly isn’t always even about a normal citizen – one of us — being able to make him/herself a somebody by entering Congress, because it seems that more and more members of Congress already are “somebody” in the traditional sense – i.e., wealthy; so the office cannot be for the financial advantages or societal entrée it might thereafter provide. (Actually, for our really wealthy members of Congress, it seems that the choice came down to running for Congress or buying a professional sports team, and buying a Congressional seat was cheaper and easier than buying a professional franchise.)

No, it’s as Mr. Warhol (apocryphally, at least) said: it’s about the Fame. “Look, look at me. I not only need to be somebody; I need you to know I’m somebody!” Mr. Trump is of course the most shameless example of it, but virtually all of them suffer from it. (Oh, for the good old days when Robber Barons like John D. Rockefeller, J.P. Morgan, and Henry Ford, who were already confident that they were somebody, were satisfied to run their businesses and exploit the vast majority of Americans from behind the scenes without feeling the need to foist their views upon our citizens in public. 😉)

You want evidence? (Although I don’t think you need it.) It’s said today that Republican members of Congress fear Mr. Trump. Actually, they don’t. What they fear is his influence with their constituents – not the same. Let’s assume for a moment that we do have free and fair elections in 2026, that current projections of a dramatic Democratic capture of the House of Representatives come to fruition, and that credible polls thereafter attribute the Republican electoral debacle to the unpopularity of the Trump Regime. In such event, what do you want to bet that the most dangerous place to be the day after the election will be at the door of the Republican Congressional cloakroom as those Republicans who did survive rush out to find a camera to distance themselves from Mr. Trump and all that his Regime has done during its first two years?

I know. You won’t take the bet.

I have to admit that I used to be firmly in favor of term limits for members of Congress. I guess I still am; but I consider it a much lesser priority than I used to. What these people lust for isn’t power, it’s fame. To get their seats, they all pander to whatever constituency or TV camera or media outlet that will get and keep them there. If one leaves Congress, s/he will simply be replaced by another with the same yearning.

I don’t know how we recover a Congress with [you fill in whatever body part you consider most symbolic of inner strength]. Because in fact, our Congress is simply a reflection of what we’ve become.

Our Congress is us.

A Greenland Checkmate – If NATO Nations Stand Fast: a Postscript and Correction

Yesterday, it appeared that President Donald Trump and the NATO nations aligned against him over his attempts to extort Denmark, Greenland, and NATO into transferring control of Greenland to the United States were taking steps to move back from the brink of war. Mr. Trump at one point apparently indicated that he would not attempt to use force to take control of Greenland. Whether our Manchild President stepped back from the brink because the NATO nations found a way to placate Mr. Trump, as he claimed, or because somebody woke him up sufficiently to the possibility, as suggested in this post, that the conflict that would ensue if he ordered a military invasion of Greenland could effectively spell the end of his presidency, it does not appear – at least as this is typed – that the United States and its putative NATO allies are headed for any immediate armed conflict.

But who knows what the case will be by the time you read this? We’ll have to see what happens today. And then tomorrow. And then the next day.

Meanwhile, the New York Times is reporting that the Regime’s ICE has started new operations in the state of Maine, targeting immigrants from Somalia. Here we go again.

On a different note, I observed here recently that I very much enjoy receiving comments – even ones pointing out that I have erred in a post. 😊 I was informed yesterday by an unimpeachable source that I had erred in this original note when I casually referred to Greenland as a “colony” of Denmark. Greenland is not a Danish colony; it is actually a self-governing territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, although Denmark handles Greenland’s foreign policy and defense, and Greenland relies heavily on Denmark’s financial support, education and health care.

The record – at least on Greenland’s legal status, and at least in these pages – is now clear. 😊

Now, let’s brace for today’s rollercoaster ride.