On Being a Swiftie

When the relationship between Superstar Singer Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs Tight End Travis Kelce first came to my attention, I was among the cynics who felt it was a conspira — well, let’s just say, a narrative 😉 – promoted by the NFL and Ms. Swift’s organization for the mutual commercial benefit of both. Because of the Swift-Kelce relationship, a significant segment of Ms. Swift’s fans are reportedly now watching NFL games, and NFL fans are presumably buying Ms. Swift’s music in greater volumes. (Put aside the fact that the NFL and Ms. Swift were both doing okay even before the Swift-Kelce relationship was publicized 🙂 ). I myself was some evidence of the attention focused on the relationship; before becoming apprised of – or perhaps, more accurately, inundated by news of — it, I literally could not have identified Ms. Swift in a lineup of five popular young female singers. Now, I can. (I still cannot identify a Taylor Swift song as a Taylor Swift song, although I understand that I’ve heard plenty of them.) Since in recent months I have been told that many of Ms. Swift’s songs are about her past failed romances, as the publicity swirl around the relationship ripened into a hurricane I actually began to feel a bit bad for Mr. Kelce, whom I envisioned at some point in the future as sitting on some bench, helmet in hand, shaking his head, wondering how the ride had suddenly ended, where the magic had gone. (But just a bit bad. Mr. Kelce is an important, high-profile and undoubtedly extremely-well paid member of a two-time World Champion team; I figured he’d get over it 😉 ).

All of this was benign fluff. I now understand that condemnation is being heaped upon Ms. Swift in the alt-right media silo — including (yes, really) conspiracy theories that the NFL is orchestrating a Chiefs victory in this Sunday’s Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers so that Ms. Swift can go on the field after the game and endorse President Joe Biden – because she has become a vocal opponent of MAGAism. What has made me take another look at Ms. Swift is an apparently accurate video that drifted through my Twitter feed of Ms. Swift and her parents discussing the risks of her getting involved in politics. (One grain of salt: Ms. Swift and her parents had to be aware that their exchange was being recorded.) The discussion focuses on concerns that by being a public opponent of MAGA U.S. TN Sen. Marsha Blackburn – and, by extension, former President Donald Trump – Ms. Swift could lose a significant segment of her fan base and more importantly, would materially increase the physical danger she already faces by virtue of being such a celebrated performer. On the clip, Ms. Swift replies, “I don’t care if they write [that Taylor Swift comes out against Donald Trump.] I’m sad I didn’t [come out against Mr. Trump during the 2020 presidential election], but I can’t change that. I’m saying right now … that I need to be on the right side of history and if he [presumably, President Joe Biden] doesn’t win … at least I tried.”

Now, that’s a WOW.

I have heard it reported that adjusting for differences in eras, Ms. Swift now commands a level of devotion among her fans unequaled since a long-ago popular music phenomenon with which I am much more familiar: Beatlemania. I well remember the controversy — perhaps beyond the recall of those with shorter memories and certainly of those with shorter lives — that erupted in 1966 when John Lennon was accurately quoted in a magazine article as saying, “Christianity will go. It will vanish and shrink. I needn’t argue about that; I know I’m right and will be proved right. We’re more popular than Jesus now. I don’t know which will go first – rock & roll or Christianity. Jesus was all right, but his disciples were thick and ordinary. It’s them twisting it that ruins it for me.”

The firestorm that exploded in the southern United States over the comments months after they were first published in the U.K. – after not causing a ripple in the U.K., where the Anglican Church was then under severe criticism and losing adherents by the droves – caused the other Beatles and their manager, Brian Epstein, to persuade Mr. Lennon to do a press conference to clarify his remarks when the band subsequently entered the U.S. on tour because they genuinely feared for the band members’ physical safety.

Mr. Lennon then declared, “I’m not anti-God, anti-Christ or anti-religion. I wasn’t knocking it. I was not saying we’re better or greater, or comparing us with Jesus Christ as a person or God as a thing or whatever it is. … I used the word, ‘Beatles’ as a remote thing – ‘Beatles” like other people see us. I said they are having more influence on kids and things than anything else, including Jesus. [The way I expressed these thoughts in the magazine article] was the wrong way.”

Candidly, whether one reviews either Mr. Lennon’s original comments or his clarification, it’s hard to say that he was wrong to the extent he was objectively observing the shift away from Christian faith toward the glitz of popular culture. Even so, it’s also hard not to conclude that despite his later well-earned reputation as a social crusader, he buckled – at least a little — when confronted on this early occasion.

As far as I know, so far Ms. Swift isn’t buckling. I’m guessing that there isn’t a security professional alive who wouldn’t agree that in the open venues and amid the screaming fans in which she performs, any well-trained crackpot who wants to visit harm upon her might be able to find the means to do so. She apparently is willing to take the risk. I can’t help but contrast this young woman’s courage to do what she believes is the right thing against the cowardice being demonstrated daily by those Republicans officeholders whom credible reporters such as U.S. UT Sen. Mitt Romney and former U.S. WY Rep. Liz Cheney advise us have nothing but contempt for Mr. Trump but are afraid to stand up to him out of fear of physical safety or losing their stations.

The singer’s got guts. They are despicable.

I virtually never watch football not involving the Green Bay Packers. Even so, I think it’s likely that I’ll watch some of Sunday’s Super Bowl. Under normal circumstances and despite the fact that the 49ers eliminated the Packers from the playoffs, the fact that the Chiefs have won two recent Super Bowls, taken together with the Cinderella story of San Francisco “Mr. Irrelevant” Quarterback Brock Purdy, would almost certainly cause me to root for the Niners. That said, these are not normal times. The MAGA attempt to demonize Ms. Swift has injected political venom into a heretofore nonpolitical American sports spectacle. (I truly wonder how many formerly diehard Chiefs fans from two blood-red Republican states, Missouri and Kansas, are now going to root for the team from the Woke Capital of the World against their hometown entry because MAGAs are condemning Ms. Swift’s participation in our political process.) I’m rooting for the Chiefs.

If the Niners win, some MAGA will undoubtedly proclaim that Jesus, rather than Mr. Purdy, was the 49er quarterback, although I’m not aware of any Gospel passage indicating that among His miracles the Lord ever hit an inside slant or a corner fade.

At the same time, I do have a conspiracy theory that should strike fear into the heart of every MAGA intent on a Kansas City defeat: the Chiefs may be planning … to start Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

And if I do tune in on Sunday, I’ll have to concede that in the end, maybe the NFL was right; it did capture one more viewer for its big extravaganza … because he’s become a Swiftie.

On to San Francisco

WOW.

Mr. Love’s Next Step: A Postscript and Preview

In an April post entitled, “The Murphy – Gutekunst – LaFleur Era in Green Bay Truly Begins,” I marked Aaron Rodgers’ departure from Green Bay and ventured that the Packers had “seemed to me to be increasingly floundering during Packer General Manager Brian Gutekunst’s tenure,” and suggested that although I had “no marked criticism of [Packer Head Coach Matt] LaFleur, [given Mr. Rodgers’ presence throughout Mr. LaFleur’s tenure up to that point] I’m not sure he’s any better or perhaps even as good as [former Packer Head Coach Mike] McCarthy was.” While I didn’t set forth my doubts about Packer Quarterback Jordan Love in that post, I’ve made clear in other notes my deep misgivings about Mr. Love’s ability to take up where his illustrious Packer Quarterback predecessors Brett Favre and Mr. Rodgers had left off, primarily based upon the team’s apparent reluctance to move on earlier from the aging and pricey Mr. Rodgers when it seemingly could have.

Fast forwarding to a little over a week ago, in a preview of the Packers’ then-upcoming game against the Chicago Bears, I noted in “Mr. Love’s Next Step” the Packers’ season second-half rise to the brink of the playoffs, and Mr. Love’s strong performance down the stretch. At the same time, I observed that it seemed to me that Mr. Love had at times appeared shaky in games with broader implications, and indicated that the then-impending contest against the Bears – who had plenty of motivation to play well despite being out of playoff contention, and would field a fine defense – would be a test of whether the Packers “had something” in Mr. Love; whether, without anointing him as the “Third Coming,” he could indeed be “the Guy.”

Time to face the music. Although blogging is obviously simply spouting – a fact that should nonetheless be explicitly acknowledged even by one with the word, “Noise,” in the title of his blog 😉 — the Packers have exceeded my wildest expectations this season. As all who care are aware, they defeated the Bears 17 – 9 on January 7, and in my view, their mastery over the Bears – who did indeed show up to play — was greater than the score indicated. Mr. Love completed almost 85% of his passes – a feat that commentators indicated had only been done once by a Packer Quarterback (Mr. Rodgers) in the preceding 40 years – and threw for over 300 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. It was more than a stellar performance; particularly given the pressure of getting the Packers into the playoffs – which neither of Mr. Love’s predecessors did in their respective first years as starters — it was stunning. We’ll come back to Mr. Love near the conclusion of this note.

Given my earlier expressions of doubt about Mr. LaFleur’s capabilities, I’ll also praise his performance: to get the youngest team in the NFL into the playoffs is a huge coaching achievement. I’m won’t say he’s a better coach than Mr. McCarthy (I’ve always been a fan of Mr. McCarthy), but will concede that he appears to be as good.

Another necessary acknowledgement: despite my deep skepticism about Mr. Gutekunst, the team couldn’t have made the playoffs but for the personnel he has selected over the last five years (notwithstanding the notable assistance of a few key players drafted by Mr. Thompson, such as Running Back Aaron Jones and Defensive Lineman Kenny Clark 🙂 ).

As for this week’s playoff game:

I don’t expect the Packers to stand much of a chance against the Cowboys. I expect Mr. McCarthy, who now leads Dallas, to make clear to his players that they can lose to a good young team that is playing without expectations, but only if they are both overconfident and fail to take care of the ball.

Although as I type this, I don’t care who wins the Green Bay – Dallas game – this is not the year that the Packers are going to march to the Super Bowl, given the talented and experienced teams in front of them – I expect these feelings of equanimity to dissolve at the game’s opening kickoff, particularly since Green Bay is playing Dallas. In a word very rarely used in these pages, but appropriate here: while I retain a residual regard and respect for Mr. McCarthy, I hate the Cowboys 🙂 . Cowboy Owner Jerry Jones is one of the most repulsive figures in sport. All the glitz, the ballyhoo, the boasting, the grandstanding, the gloating, the cavorting cheerleaders, and the smug arrogance that are the viscera of the Dallas Cowboys have made me always root against the Cowboys over the last 30 years no matter whom they were playing, including any of the Packers’ NFC North rivals.

Someone whom I suspect most cares that the Packers win: besieged Packer Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry. If Mr. Barry’s defense somehow stifles the Cowboys and Green Bay does prevail, it would presumably give Messrs. Gutekunst and LaFleur pause before replacing him.

Two final notes:

First, as to Mr. Love. After the game, a good friend joshed me in these pages, “It’s time. This is the Third Coming.” I am still not willing to go there. Given my veiled Biblical (and thus, in this context, somewhat blasphemous 😉 ) reference to Mr. Love’s ability to assume the mantle of Messrs. Favre and Rodgers, I believe that Mr. Love needs to win at least one MVP and perhaps a Super Bowl before I would go that far; but for the Packers, he is definitely “the Guy.” For now, that’s enough. Although we’ll never meet, as last week’s game wound down I genuinely felt great for the young man to have been able to so effectively shut up his doubters – including me.

Second: because of my preoccupation with the current state of our civil affairs, even as I watched the game and saw Green Bay doing so well, I envisioned that in homes and taverns across the Wisconsin, family members and friends who bitterly disagree about the best way forward for our nation and will vote in diametrically opposite ways this coming November were high-fiving, hugging, and toasting each other as this Packer team – consisting of young men whom they will never meet – fought their way into the playoffs. I am no longer certain, as politicians and pundits like to intone, that more unites us than divides us; but at least on this day, at least in this one area, such was indeed the case. As irrelevant as it was in the scheme of things, it had to be cherished.

My mea culpas are concluded. My soul, as one would expect for any Irish Catholic, has been refreshed by confessing my mistakes. Absent an improbable extended Packer playoff run, this is the Noise, signing OUT for the Green and Gold this season.

Mr. Love’s Next Step

In early December, in the flush of the Packers’ victory over the World Champion Kansas City Chiefs, I conceded that despite my years-long skepticism about Green Bay Quarterback Jordan Love’s potential to be a worthy successor to Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, “maybe – just maybe” — the Green and Gold had something in Mr. Love.

We are a long way from hailing Mr. Love as the Third Coming. At the same time, he has unquestionably performed beyond at least my most optimistic expectations. Operating an offense with accomplished but gimpy running backs and a receiver corps that has literally watched less NFL action than you have, he has Green Bay within one game of the NFL playoffs, he’s 10^th in NFL Total Quarterback Rating, and is one of only three QBs with 30 touchdown passes. It could be argued that if the Packers’ defense had consistently played this season up to the standard one would expect from a unit brimming with high draft picks, Green Bay would already have clinched a playoff spot. The season started with the Packer Faithful wondering whether the team would be in the market for a starting quarterback this offseason; it’s ending with the impression that Mr. Love has earned a hefty contract extension.

And yet. Although Green Bay and the Minnesota Vikings entered last Sunday’s game with identical records, I would suggest that the Pack’s dominant effort against the Vikings needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Mr. Love’s bravura performance was against a Viking secondary whose members didn’t look like they’d ever been introduced to one another. Green Bay’s defense held down a Minnesota offense playing backup quarterbacks and without one of its two best receivers.

I would submit that this weekend will be the season’s ultimate test for this year’s Packers. If the Packers win, they make the playoffs. If they don’t, they probably don’t. Although besieged Packer Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry is probably going to lose his job in any event, any shred of a chance he has to retain it will in all likelihood depend upon how the defense performs. The Packers get home field advantage against a Chicago Bear team out of playoff contention.

That said, while the Bears have performed below pre-season expectations overall, they, like Green Bay, have played very well in the team’s last few games under Quarterback Justin Fields. Chicago seems to me to have a subplot every bit as intriguing as the Packers’ playoff quest. The Bears have the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft. The team’s front office is reportedly (and if so, understandably) weighing whether Mr. Fields – himself their first round pick in 2021, who has been sometimes injured and mixed brilliance with inconsistency – is their long-term quarterback, or if they should draft the best quarterback prospect available next spring. This weekend, Mr. Fields may well be playing for his job, at least in Chicago. In his college career at Georgia and Ohio State, he played in a lot of high-pressure games. His teammates are apparently behind him, and if they are, they will play hard for him. They undoubtedly also remain stung by their unexpected opening week loss to Green Bay, which began the team’s disappointing 2023 downward spiral.

[I have no idea what Mr. Barry will do to defend against Mr. Fields; I’d be tempted to have Packer Inside Linebacker Quay Walker “shadow” Mr. Fields (who is as explosive a runner as he is a passer), and make it explicitly clear to Cornerback Jaire Alexander that Mr. Alexander’s performance this season hasn’t always measured up to his reputation or salary.]

Last year, in Mr. Rodgers’ last game at the helm, to make the playoffs the Packers only needed to win a game at home against another NFC North rival, a Detroit Lions team that was hungry but already out of playoff contention. Detroit won. The Packers were eliminated. Mr. Rodgers departed.

Here we are again.

I expect Sunday’s game to have playoff intensity. Not only is it the Packers and the Bears; it will be one of the few between Green Bay and Chicago since Mr. Favre took the field in 1992 that has clear major ramifications for both teams. This season, Mr. Love has indisputably successfully shouldered the pressure of the comparison to his storied predecessors – neither of whom made the playoffs in their respective first years as starters — but has seemed at least to me to be a little shaky in games carrying obvious ramifications. It doesn’t matter what happens after Sunday; if Green Bay does make the playoffs, it will in all probability be easily dispatched by whatever higher playoff seed it draws. Given Green Bay’s uncertain defense, for me the key factor this week will be how Mr. Love plays – i.e., no matter the outcome, did Mr. Love play well enough to win?

Some memories get rosier over time. Mr. Favre was not BRETT FAVRE in his first year; despite his legendary arm strength, Mr. Favre occasionally underthrew open receivers. Mr. Rodgers was not AARON RODGERS in his first year; despite his renowned accuracy, he occasionally missed open receivers. I would nonetheless submit that Sunday evening, Packer fans will have a clearer idea whether Mr. Love has the makings of a worthy successor to Messrs. Favre and Rodgers.

In other words, in a nutshell: Can he be … the Guy?

On Jordan Love

On Sunday afternoon, on a string maintained by avid family Packer backers, I indicated, “Don’t expect them [the Packers] to win tonight but if the kid [Packer Quarterback Jordan Love] plays well against the World Champions [the Kansas City Chiefs], maybe – just maybe – we’ve got something.”

Mr. Love completed 25-of-36 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. As all who care are aware, the Packers (arguably aided by two late-game pass interference infractions that weren’t called 😉 ) defeated the Chiefs 27 – 19 on Sunday night. If the season ended now, Green Bay would qualify for the NFC playoffs under the NFL’s process for determining playoff priority.

As anybody reading any of the Packer-related notes which I have posted in recent years is well aware, I have had deep doubts about Mr. Love’s ability to worthily succeed his storied Packer Quarterback predecessors, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. My concerns were based less upon his uncertain play in his infrequent appearances during Mr. Rodgers’ last Green Bay seasons than upon the team’s marked reluctance to move on from Mr. Rodgers – an approach in stark contrast to the haste with which the team dispensed with Mr. Favre in favor of Mr. Rodgers a football generation ago – despite Mr. Rodgers’ $50 million 2022 salary and his tendency to be what my mother would have called, “obstreperous.” Green Bay’s apparent hesitation to transition to Mr. Love appeared to me to be a clear indication that the team — despite Packer General Manager Brian Gutekunst’s decision to move up in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft to select him – didn’t consider him, after years of review, to be able to perform at anywhere near the level of excellence maintained by Messrs. Favre and Rodgers dating back to 1992.

After a promising start that included leading an 18-point fourth quarter comeback to beat the New Orleans Saints 18 – 17 in Week 3, Mr. Love experienced mid-season doldrums – the team lost four in row to fall to 2 – 5 — that reinforced the doubts of his skeptics – including me 😉 . Since that time, Mr. Love has – to use another phrase of my mother’s – “come on like gangbusters”; in his last three games, Mr. Love has thrown eight touchdown passes with no interceptions (although a couple of his biggest throws against Kansas City were more reminiscent of Mr. Favre than Mr. Rodgers – which is to say that although they were successful, they were a bit dicey). He has led the Green and Gold to impressive victories over a hungry Detroit Lions team on the road on Thanksgiving and now over the World Champion Chiefs (who seemed at least to me to believe, coming into Sunday night’s game, that they were going to win pretty easily). I understand that before the Kansas City game, Mr. Love’s quarterbacking statistics were largely indistinguishable from those posted by Mr. Rodgers at the same point in his first season as the Green Bay starter.

Based upon what we’ve seen thus far, am I hailing Mr. Love as The Third Coming? Certainly not. We’ll see how he performs for the rest of the year. Nobody was really expecting much after the Packers’ mid-season nosedive; now, although none of Green Bay’s last four opponents has a better record than the Packers, the expectations and the pressure – the hope to make the playoffs – will be there. Young quarterbacks frequently regress in their early years of development (although I don’t recall either Mr. Favre or Mr. Rodgers doing so to any notable degree). Even if Green Bay does somehow make the playoffs, I would expect that it will be easily dispatched by any of the NFC teams likely to be its first round opponent. That said, it’s fun to have a young team that shows promise to root for, to provide a distraction from the issues and cares generally addressed in these pages.

This note is primarily for the benefit of those of our younger Packer fan family members, who all along have been much more bullish about Mr. Love’s prospects than I, and have joshed me about my misgivings. To them, I acknowledge that maybe – just maybe – we’ve got something 🙂 .

On the Passing of Dick Butkus

I am an oddity (obviously in more ways than just this 😉 ) in that, being raised in the Chicago area, I was a Bear fan from the early ‘60’s until the late ‘70’s or early ‘80’s before becoming a Packer fan. (Perhaps being a glutton for punishment — I was also then a Cub fan — I transferred my allegiance to the Green and Gold as the Bears of Jim McMahon, Walter Payton, and Mike Singletary were ascending and Green Bay, floundering after the departure of Head Coach Vince Lombardi, had become the backest of NFL backwaters.)

This is to note the passing of Dick Butkus, the most feared defensive player of his era and arguably any era. Since more Packer than Bear fans read these notes, here’s a fact of which some may not be aware: in the 1965 NFL draft — not the ballyhooed affair that exists today — the Bears had the third and fourth picks in the first round, and chose Mr. Butkus with the third pick, and Kansas halfback Gayle Sayers with the fourth. Although my knowledge of baseball has become dated, I obviously remain conversant with the NFL, and in my view Mr. Sayers (before he was injured in 1968), who passed away in 2020, still remains, after all these years, the best pure running back I have ever seen (with honorable mention to Barry Sanders 🙂 ). I am sure that there are all sorts of pundits who rate which NFL teams have had the best drafts over these many decades; I am pretty confident that no team has ever had a better draft than the Bears in 1965.

In 1965 season, the Bears – as they did every year for decades while they shared Wrigley Field with the Cubs – played their first three games on the road, and started 0-3, including a loss to Mr. Lombardi’s Packers. As I recall, at that point Bears Owner and Head Coach George Halas began to rely more heavily on Mr. Sayers. Riding Mr. Butkus’ leadership on defense and Mr. Sayers’ skills as halfback and return man, the team went 9-2 the rest of the way (9-5 overall, including a 21-point victory over the Packers.) Although Green Bay, by virtue of its 10 wins, proceeded on to the NFL title, by the end of that regular season it was Chicago, not Green Bay, that was the proverbial team “nobody wants to play.”

I recall an anecdote to the effect that legendary Green Bay linebacker Ray Nitschke was once asked by a teammate, “Have you ever seen anyone who hit as hard as you?” Mr. Nitschke reportedly immediately replied, “Butkus. Butkus hit harder.”

The news of Mr. Butkus’ passing has made me a Bear fan again, if only for a moment.

Requiescat in pace, No. 51.

August Odds and Ends

One truly regrettable consequence of the multitude of indictments that have recently been visited on former President Donald Trump is the distinct possibility that Trump news may drown out rational policy discussions and all but the starkest other news until at least Inauguration Day, 2025. Despite my deepest (and by now glaringly obvious) antipathy for the autocratic impulses Mr. Trump and his cohort have both exploited and unleashed in our national psyche, I’m going to try hard to not only write about our coming political maelstrom during the next 17 months – there’s only so much to be said — although there is a part of me that feels that discussing other issues during this coming period is going to be akin to addressing the quality of the paint on World War II Allied battleships as they traveled through seas infested by Nazi submarines.

First: on one hand, I am surprised that the public perception of President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy is so dismal, and on the other, I’m not. Granting that at the macro level, our unemployment level is at or near historic lows and that today the S&P 500 Index is approximately 18% higher than it ever was when Mr. Trump was president, in our past it has often been the case – even absent invectives such as those currently being trumpeted by Mr. Trump’s propagandists – that our citizens have taken economic positives in stride, and focused on economic negatives. Thus, what our people see is elevated (relative to the last 15 years) interest rates, which impact home and car sales and small business lending, notable inflation in food cost, and – worst of all – high gas prices. Even in democratically steady times, it is never a good thing for a President of the United States if gas prices are high. While Saudi Arabia and Russia, who have a dominant roles in the world’s oil market, will clearly do what they can to inflate oil prices to assist Mr. Trump’s campaign while filling their own coffers, China’s exports are reportedly significantly sliding as western companies redo their supply chains, which will seemingly cut its oil demand and in turn presumably weigh on global oil prices. A lot of variables; time will tell.

Next: Until recently, the dangers of Climate Change have seemed existential but somehow remote in the upper U.S. Midwest – not unlike the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where the stakes are intellectually clear but we’ve been far from the brunt of the battle. Although the polar vortex made our last winter colder than normal, winter is always cold here; and we could arguably manage a degree or two of additional summer warmth more readily than our south or much of the rest of the world. Furthermore, our proximity to the Great Lakes provides us access to drinking water not as readily available in other parts of our nation and much of the rest of the world. Even so, the United States Department of Agriculture is now offering technical and financial assistance to help Wisconsin farmers respond to extreme drought conditions that are reportedly the worst to hit the state in over a decade. During parts of June and July, the smoke from Canadian wildfires created “Very Unhealthy” Air Quality Index levels hundreds of miles from Canada and caused southern Wisconsin residents to seek refuge in their homes (for those fortunate enough to have them). In July, we visited the Apostle Islands in northern Wisconsin; although there was little cloud cover during our visit, we nonetheless approached some islands through a smoke cover reminiscent of the mist pierced by the protagonists in King Kong movies as they first neared Kong’s island. (In an entirely geographically separate part of our nation: If I’d ever focused on it, I would probably have surmised that parts of Hawaii were at risk for significant future losses caused by rising sea levels, but would never have guessed that such a tropical environment would be subject to wildfires.) We are constantly warned that we are approaching a “tipping point” regarding climate change; given the increasing breadth, frequency and intensity of the climate-related damage being incurred worldwide, it is difficult not to conclude that we haven’t already reached it. While it may be true, as some credible authorities assert, that renewable technologies are not yet sufficient to enable some parts of our world to survive without carbon- or nuclear-based energy sources, we obviously haven’t moved fast or aggressively enough to reduce our dependence on carbon where we can. Although I am optimistic that in the future we will develop technologies to mitigate the effects of the toxic gasses we release into the atmosphere, there is clearly going to be no quick fix to repair the damage that our changing climate has already wreaked upon our globe.

Finally, on a happily less vital note: I was more than a little surprised that so many sports pundits professed shock at the perceived underperformance of the U.S Women’s team in the Soccer World Cup. I don’t watch or know anything about soccer, but I will venture this: with the possible exception of U.S. college football factories, if a championship team in any sport has a 60% turnover in its personnel – the U.S. Women fielded 14 of 23 players who hadn’t been on the last World Cup championship team — and has a new coach, its chances of repeating have to be in doubt. The team’s performance showed – obviously speaking in relative terms – that it wasn’t that good. So be it. It’s only sports; nobody died. I was glad to see that if the U.S. Women were going to be defeated, that it was Megan Rapinoe – a stalwart and face of the team in past championships – who was one of those that missed a crucial penalty kick; although she’s taking undue heat in some quarters due to her past outspoken progressive stands, Ms. Rapinoe’s stature in U.S. soccer lore is secure, and it will be easier for her by nature and record of achievement to shoulder the criticism than one of the newcomers. The pay equity with the U.S. Men’s team that the U.S. Women achieved through their undoubted excellence over the last quarter century is those championship teams’ and players’ true legacy.

On we march.

The Murphy – Gutekunst – LaFleur Era in Green Bay Truly Begins

Aaron Rodgers is gone. This week, the Murphy-Gutekunst-LaFleur Era in Green Bay truly begins.

As all familiar with Green and Gold lore well recall, Green Bay was the furthest removed of NFL backwaters when Packer President Bob Harlan hired Ron Wolf as Packer General Manager in 1991. Mr. Wolf promptly hired San Francisco 49er Assistant Coach Ron Holmgren to be his head coach and traded a first-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons for their second-year, third string quarterback, Brett Favre; and the Packers’ reascension to NFL royalty began.

After a few years of team wobbling after Mr. Holmgren’s departure which, due to Mr. Favre’s continuing brilliance, were more apparent to the diehard than the casual fan, in early 2005 Mr. Harlan hired Ted Thompson as Packers General Manager; in 2006, Mr. Thompson hired San Francisco 49er Assistant Coach Mike McCarthy to be his head coach; and as his first first-round pick, Mr. Thompson selected University of California Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, after 25 teams had passed on Mr. Rodgers.

That selection, more than any other made by Mr. Thompson, maintained Green Bay’s place among NFL heavyweights during the last 15 years.

Certainly, Messrs. Wolf and Thompson made mistakes over the years; I will always believe that Mr. Wolf cost Green Bay at least one more championship by mistakenly selecting University of Florida Cornerback Terrell Buckley rather than University of Wisconsin Cornerback Troy Vincent in the 1992 draft; Mr. Thompson glaringly whiffed in his last draft, 2017, when he passed on Wisconsin Linebacker T.J. Watt, instead in effect choosing the duo of University of Washington Cornerback Kevin King and Wisconsin Linebacker Vince Biegel, both marked disappointments. But it cannot be disputed that Green Bay’s consistent success over the last 30 years is in large measure due to the respective skills of Messrs. Harlan, Wolf, Thompson, Holmgren, McCarthy, Favre and Rodgers.

When it was time for Mr. Thompson to step aside in 2017, Packer President Mark Murphy, who had succeeded Mr. Harlan during Mr. Thompson’s tenure, chose Brian Gutekunst as Packer General Manager in 2018; in 2019, Mr. Gutekunst hired Tennessee Titan Offensive Coordinator Matt LaFleur to be his head coach, succeeding Mr. McCarthy; and in 2020, Mr. Gutekunst traded to move up in the NFL draft to select Utah State Quarterback Jordan Love in the first round.

During Mr. Gutekunst’s tenure as Green Bay General Manager, with Mr. Rodgers continuing as quarterback, Green Bay has made playoffs three times and rose to the NFC title game twice. During Mr. LaFleur’s tenure as Green Bay head coach, he has – or at least for quite a while had – the best winning percentage of any Green Bay coach in history.

I am reminded of a story that I may have entered in these pages before: when legendary New York Yankee Manager Casey Stengel was asked about the most important strategies he employed in winning so many World Championships and American League Pennants, Mr. Stengel replied: “Well, there were many; but the three most important were named, DiMaggio, Mantle, and Berra.”

I saw a note yesterday that only three players drafted by Mr. Thompson – Placekicker Mason Crosby, Running Back Aaron Jones, and offensive Tackle David Bakhtiari – remain with the team. The rest of the roster was selected by Mr. Gutekunst. Although the Packers have seemed to me to be increasingly floundering during Mr. Gutekunst’s tenure – his shortcomings as a General Manager arguably most apparent by his selection of Mr. Love much higher than most teams had rated him — the team has been mostly able to compensate for its weaknesses through the continued brilliance of Mr. Rodgers.

While I have no marked criticism of Mr. LaFleur, I don’t think anyone believes, despite Mr. LaFleur’s impressive early winning percentage as Packer head coach and recognizing the differences in eras, that Mr. LaFleur is as good a coach as Vince Lombardi was. I don’t think he’s as good a head coach as Mr. Holmgren was. I’m not sure he’s any better or perhaps even as good as Mr. McCarthy was.

Aaron Rodgers is gone. This week, the Murphy-Gutekunst-LaFleur Era in Green Bay truly begins. Packer faithful should hold on to their Cheese Heads. As former President Donald Trump likes to say: We’ll see what happens. 😉

On Aaron Rodgers’ Transition

The Wall Street Journal had an article this week about the long-expected Green Bay Packer- New York Jet trade that will send Quarterback Aaron Rodgers to New York. Although I think all consider the trade all but certain to occur, the Journal noted that the trade details were “complicated,” citing Mr. Rodgers’ “age, his recent performance, his possible retirement and the enormous sum of money he’s due.” The Journal also opined that the Jets – although described as “utterly desperate for a quarterback,” have leverage over Green Bay “if the Packers want to recoup picks this year.” The NFL draft begins on April 27.

I’ve found a surprising unanimity of sentiment among the Packer faithful about Mr. Rodgers’ imminent departure – in sharp contrast to the rancorous split of opinion in the Packer Nation when the team decided to move on from Mr. Rodgers’ predecessor, Brett Favre. Virtually to a person, the Packer fans with whom I’ve talked credit Mr. Rodgers for his wonderful performance over these last many years; most acknowledge that technically, he was even better than Mr. Favre; they will not begrudge it if he goes to New York and wins another Super Bowl; and that he is a weird guy. A random comparison regarding relative fan affection for PGA giants Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus comes to mind: golf fans knew that the reserved Mr. Nicklaus was technically better than Mr. Palmer, but always loved Mr. Palmer more due to his classy, yet competitive, lay-it-all-out-there demeanor; Packer fans acknowledge that Mr. Rodgers, a cool Californian, was better, but will always remember Mr. Favre, a Wisconsin kind of guy – and notwithstanding his peccadillos since leaving the team – more fondly.

That said, if I were Packer General Manager Brian Gutekunst, I would wait the Jets out. If the Jets do have, as the Journal stated in its piece, “a playoff caliber roster – except for the huge void at quarterback,” it is they who have to win now. They should provide the Packers two first round picks for Mr. Rodgers, although such might not happen until after the draft. Mr. Rodgers – like legends John Elway and Peyton Manning who won Super Bowls late in their careers – is no longer capable of carrying a team on his back every week, but certainly retains the skill to dominate a few games during a season when his team finds nothing else is working.

As for the Packers, although they seem very likely to complete the trade before the draft in the win-now culture of the NFL (indeed, the trade may be announced as I post this 😉 ), I don’t think they should. Mr. Gutekunst presumably believed when he drafted Utah State Quarterback Jordan Love in 2020 that Mr. Love had the right stuff to follow in the tradition of Messrs. Favre and Rodgers. Mr. Love may be the finest man in the world, but all current indications are that in drafting him, Mr. Gutekunst whiffed, completely whiffed. (If you need evidence: the team wouldn’t have paid Mr. Rodgers $50 million last season if it considered Mr. Love, even after having had two years in Green Bay, to have been remotely ready to start.) The issue at this point seems not to be whether Green Bay is destined to revisit the NFL hinterland, but how best to make its return as brief as possible. If Mr. Gutekunst could secure 2024 and 2025 first round picks from the Jets for Mr. Rodgers after the draft, the stockpile of first round picks will serve Green Bay well as it builds for the future. Even if Mr. Love plays well, this is probably a lost year for the Green and Gold; they have a lot of gaps, and recall that neither Mr. Favre nor Mr. Rodgers made the playoffs in their respective first years as starter. That said, it is the extremely rare team that can win a Super Bowl in this era without an elite quarterback, so if Mr. Love doesn’t play well, those picks could could be packaged to move up in the 2024 draft for Mr. Gutekunst to try, try again. (If he whiffs again, he won’t be around for a third try.)

‘Nuff said. As always, fun to take a break from the ongoing domestic and global issues which we face.

An Early January Potpourri

A series of random thoughts as 2023 begins:

I have heard commentators declare that the U.S. House of Representatives’ Republicans’ antics in their ongoing efforts to elect a Speaker don’t constitute a flaw, but rather a facet, of a vibrant democracy. Although an exchange of clashing viewpoints has been one of the wellsprings of American democracy from the days of Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton, such is only the case if such differing viewpoints are offered in good faith – i.e., with the sincere intent to select a better leader or reach a better policy approach for the greater good of America. I don’t have any insight into the views or motives of the vast majority of Republican House members who are refusing to vote for U.S. CA Rep Kevin McCarthy for Speaker. I have already indicated in these pages that if a GOP representative, I myself wouldn’t be supporting Mr. McCarthy because he has shown that he doesn’t have the steadfastness for the job. That said, I would submit that there is strong evidence that at least two of Mr. McCarthy’s most vocal opponents, election-deniers U.S. FL Rep. Matt Gaetz and U.S. CO Rep. Lauren Boebert, are simply hyper-partisan, self-promoting provocateurs. I see little to indicate any motive for their current drive to oust Mr. McCarthy beyond personal ambition.

The current Republican (Animal) House dysfunction is troubling on a deeper level. As Mr. McCarthy concedes more and more to the most rabid members of his caucus, how will he – and therefore, we – manage when a crisis needing unanticipated funding and unity inevitably occurs during the next two years? Will the agitators come away from this internecine party battle with the power to prevent a vote on a bill raising the federal debt ceiling, causing the United States to default on its full faith and credit? Will they be able to block additional needed aid to Ukraine, or aid to assist Taiwan, should Mainland China elect to invade the island? Will they hinder the provision of assistance to California if it suffers an earthquake, or to Puerto Rico if it is battered by another devastating hurricane, because they don’t consider these to really be part of their America? Will they fund the Biden Administration’s efforts if we are suddenly hit with another pandemic – or declare the announcement of a new virus merely a hoax? You may dismiss these concerns as unduly alarmist. If so, I hope you’re right.

Next: the situation at the southwest border is human tragedy, a logistical quagmire, and a political nightmare. Immigration has been a visceral issue for Republican voters, and generally a political winner for Republicans, for most of this century. On Thursday, the President announced new approaches that may have value and/or simply be a bandage. I have no substantive solutions to offer for the challenges we face. I would venture this: if Mr. Biden intends to seek re-election, his Administration had better achieve notable improvements to our humanitarian and security challenges at the border this year. If not, immigration may well prove to be the issue that Mr. Biden’s Republican opponent can wield most effectively against him in the upcoming campaign.

Next: I find it ironic that Republican-controlled states’ immediate reflex to oppose anything that the Biden Administration proposes is, in certain areas, helping the Administration either substantively or politically. Republican lawsuits thus far successfully thwarting Administration efforts to dismantle Title 42 – a Trump Administration initiative used to quickly expel immigrants at the southwest border – have, by keeping Title 42 in effect, perhaps prevented even greater politically-damaging border havoc for the Administration. (In an irony within an irony, the Administration’s new border protection measures reportedly expand the practice of immediate expulsion authorized under Title 42 to unsponsored migrants from Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti.) Likewise, Republican-led states’ efforts to throw out Mr. Biden’s plan to forgive federal student loan debt – no matter what one thinks of the Administration policy substantively – undoubtedly redounds to Mr. Biden’s benefit politically. (The President can justifiably say to all those whose obligations would be forgiven or reduced: “I tried to help you, and they wouldn’t let me.”) Who are those borrowers going to vote for in 2024?

Next: On a human level, all of us who are aware are saddened by the sudden cardiac arrest suffered by Buffalo Bills Safety Damar Hamlin in last Monday night’s NFL football game. As this is typed, Mr. Hamlin’s prognosis is reportedly improving. (I heard some ghoul ask one of Mr. Hamlin’s doctors this week whether he might recover sufficiently to return to the game. Really? That reporter should be made to face an unblocked rush from the San Francisco 49er defensive line.) All hope for Mr. Hamlin’s quick and complete recovery. At the same time, I am perplexed by the calls I hear from some for the NFL to “do something” to prevent afflictions such as that suffered by Mr. Hamlin. All who read these pages are aware that I am an NFL fan. Make no mistake: I believe that the NFL and its owners are much more concerned with protecting the multi-billion colossus they have created than they are with player safety. That said, having watched thousands of NFL tackles in my lifetime, I saw nothing unique or untoward about the collision that stopped Mr. Hamlin’s heart. Assuming that the NFL tests all players for cardiac fitness as part of its initial processes, I don’t know what the NFL could have done before or do now to guard against tragic disorders such as Mr. Hamlin incurred Monday night.

Despite the overwhelming popularity of football in this country – a popularity, whether one likes it or not, which arises in large measure from the game’s ferocity – perhaps we should ban the game due to the physiological and attendant psychological damage suffered by players resulting from repeated head and other reasonably-foreseeable trauma. TLOML and I were always happy that our sons never played the game at any serious level. At the same time, if mine was the voice deciding for all of America whether to keep or ban football, I don’t know which way I would vote. Our citizens voluntarily choose to downhill ski, sky dive, rock climb, bungee jump, and play soccer (which at advanced levels has its own head trauma challenges). People are injured or killed every day riding bicycles. By high school, every football player that chooses to play knows the risk. Even though the average NFL career is short, the NFL annual base salary is over $700,000; the average American salary is under $55,000 a year. Even if possessed in my late teens and early 20’s of the wisdom of Medicare-eligible years and aware of the game’s dangers [and despite lacking the coordination to efficiently tie my shoes 😉 ], would I still have gone into the NFL — to make the kind of money that could form a base of financial security for a lifetime — if I had had the ability? I would have.

Finally: Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan has announced that she will not seek re-election in 2024.

I have mentioned a number of times in these pages that I hope, for the good of my children and grandchildren, that U.S. Transportation Secretary and former South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg is someday president of the United States. It has been clear, however, that notwithstanding President Biden’s selection of Mr. Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary – an appointment of an extremely able young politician with a seemingly bright future who withdrew from the 2020 Democratic nomination race (along with U.S. MN Sen. Amy Klobuchar) just in time for Mr. Biden to corral all moderate liberal support and win the nomination – Cabinet experience is not a sufficient background upon which to mount a credible campaign for the presidency. If Mr. Buttigieg wishes to run for the Democratic Party’s Presidential nomination at some point in the future, he will no longer be able to employ the “Exciting Newcomer” lane he used in 2020; he will need a significant position from which to launch his campaign: a Governorship or a U.S. Senate seat. If he can win either office after leaving the Biden Administration, he can bide his time: he will be 42 on election day 2024, which means that he will be viable, from an age perspective, for at least the five presidential election cycles after 2024 – to 2044 [and, judging by the age of our recent major party presidential nominees, perhaps longer 😉 ].

I suspect that Mr. Buttigieg agrees with my assessment that he will need a substantial post if he wishes to mount another campaign for the presidency. I suspect that he agrees with my assessment that no Democrat will be elected a U.S. Senator or Governor in Mr. Buttigieg’s native Indiana for many years to come. I also suspect that he agrees with my assessment that he needs to establish greater rapport with and support in the African American community than he had in 2020 in order to make a viable run. For some months, I thought that he and his husband, Chasten Buttigieg, might move their family from Washington, D.C., commuting distance down to Baltimore, since the term of Democratic Maryland Senator Ben Cardin, 79, will expire in two years.

I was wrong about Mr. Buttigieg’s moving plans. Last summer, the Buttigiegs established their legal residence in Traverse City, MI, Mr. C. Buttigieg’s home town, and registered to vote.

There are a lot of ambitious politicians in Michigan, as there are in all states. Many will consider a campaign for Ms. Stabenow’s seat, and all will consider and call Mr. Buttigieg a carpetbagger if he seeks Michigan Democrats’ U.S. Senate nomination. That said, presidential support would be an advantage in a Senate primary contest; the President has compared Mr. Buttigieg to his own beloved son, Beau; and a President pays his debts.

As former President Donald Trump sometimes says: We’ll see what happens.