First, full disclosure: We won’t be able to watch the first Republican Party presidential debate this Wednesday. Quite a while back, we opted to go to a reduced cable station package, and elected not to include Fox News because I saw no reason to put such an unnecessary strain on my aging heart 😉 . (I’m shocked that the Republican National Committee hasn’t offered me a seat in the Milwaukee debate hall; after all, I am just down the road 🙂 ). That said, a few pre-game observations (based on the understanding that even candidates refusing to pledge to support whomever is ultimately the GOP nominee will be allowed to participate):
The easiest first: former President Donald Trump is obviously making the wise strategic move to skip the debate. Aside from the most important point – he would almost certainly say something that could be used to incriminate him in one of his upcoming criminal trials – in skipping the debate he’s avoiding a clash with former NJ Gov. Chris Christie, who would be gunning for him (please excuse the old reference) and is even better at slugging it out than Mr. Trump is. (Mr. Christie has assumed the mantle of Overt Trump Adversary that I have previously indicated in these pages that I thought former U.S. WY Rep. Liz Cheney might play.) At the same time, even though Mr. Trump will not be on the stage, my guess is that he will still sustain some political damage. Mr. Christie is going to repeatedly call the former president a coward for not showing up – at least when he’s not calling Mr. Trump a liar, a loser, and a traitor. This will probably shave no more than a point off Mr. Trump’s core Republican support, but I’ll venture that it may have a significant impact upon the moderate conservatives tuning in who are tired of Mr. Trump. These citizens may never vote for President Joe Biden, but Mr. Christie’s verbal assaults will be the first in a continuing barrage that may start to dampen these moderate conservatives’ willingness to turn out for Mr. Trump in November if he is the GOP nominee.
FL Gov. Ron DeSantis has clearly been employing what I will call the “Rotting Redwood” strategy. By this time, Mr. DeSantis and his advisors must realize that he can’t beat Mr. Trump, one-on-one; they are trying to “hang around” so that if the prosecution worms eating at Mr. Trump, now seemingly an impregnable political redwood, suddenly cause him to topple over, Mr. DeSantis, as the tallest sapling, will be in position to scoop up the nomination. The trouble with this strategy is: Mr. DeSantis is boring. The only thing worse than an autocrat is a boring autocrat. Everyone on that stage is going to be attacking him, because they are all aware that their only hope for the nomination is to be “the best of the rest.” Although Mr. DeSantis handily beat former FL Gov. Charlie Christ to retain his governorship in 2022, I saw clips of their debate in which Mr. DeSantis simply froze when challenged by Mr. Crist in some pretty predictable areas. Up against Mr. Christie and former SC Gov. Nikki Haley – who also knows how to throw a punch, as long as Mr. Trump is not the target – Mr. DeSantis has the most to gain or lose. If he shines, he remains the Great Anybody But Trump Hope. If he stumbles – and thereafter falls to third or fourth among Republican candidates – he’s finished. Recall that Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign started to slide when then-U.S. HI Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (put aside what we’ve since learned about Ms. Gabbard) hit Ms. Harris during a candidate debate with questions about Ms. Harris’ record as San Francisco District Attorney that Ms. Harris simply froze on.
Ms. Haley and U.S. SC Sen. Tim Scott will be engaging in a fascinating exchange. Both have reportedly stirred interest among Iowans for the first Republican caucus, and each needs to sidle past Mr. DeSantis, but both will have to use some of their air time taking shots – perhaps veiled – at the other (if not this week, soon); each is undoubtedly aware that whoever loses to the other in their home state South Carolina primary will be effectively eliminated, no matter what Mr. Trump’s situation is. Their candidacies also raise a question I have, which I’ve not heard spoken of elsewhere: Is the Republican Party ready to award its presidential nomination to a person of color? I have always felt that if the late U.S. Gen. Colin Powell had run for the Republican nomination in 2000, he would have beaten former President George W. Bush for the Republican presidential nomination and former Vice President Al Gore for the presidency, and we’d have a much different – and much better – world today; but he didn’t, we don’t, and the Republican party is chasms from where it was in 2000. If Ms. Haley or Mr. Scott secure the nomination, I’m sure Republican stalwarts would vote for either rather than a despised, diabolical, demented, Godless, rabidly progressive crime boss like Mr. Biden 😉 , but I just don’t see the party nominating a black man or an Asian woman when there are plenty of good ol’ white men available.
Which brings us to the third candidate of color: Vivek Ramaswamy. Of all the candidates on stage – save, perhaps, Mr. Christie — I will most miss seeing him. If my Twitter feed – a highly, highly unreliable source — is to be believed, Mr. Ramaswamy seems to believe that there is a path to the nomination for a person of color, as long as s/he is willing to out-fascist Messrs. Trump and DeSantis. I’d start with an open mind and see whether he actually voices some of the positions that I’ve seen attributed to him. Alas, an opportunity which will be sacrificed to protect my cardiovascular system.
Whether or not you agree with their policy views, former Vice President Mike Pence and former AR Gov. Asa Hutchinson are good men who have proven themselves determined to safeguard our republic. I fear that they’re too mild to stand out in this field.
Apparently, ND Gov. Doug Burgum will also be on stage. I’ve seen clips of Mr. Burgum, and he might be plain-spoken and sensible – as U.S. CO Sen. Michael Bennet was an interesting, plain-spoken and sensible Democratic presidential candidate in 2020 – but it’s hard to see how Mr. Burgum is doing anything but running for the Republican Vice Presidential nomination.
My greatest fear about this debate is substantive. While our citizens’ respective positions on certain issues – the best course for American democracy and women’s abortion rights, to name two – are fairly solidified, their foreign policy preferences are always more fluid. Recall how a few 2020 Democratic candidates’ very expansive positions on southern border immigration drove the whole party’s position further left than the country was as a whole. I am deeply concerned that any Republican candidates’ dramatic isolationist declarations could ultimately significantly weaken Republican – and thus American – support for Ukraine. We as a world can’t afford that.
Stay tuned – if you’re able 🙂 .
McCoy's Noise 