First, an aside regarding Vice President and Presumptive Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris’ selection of a running mate. Reports are that Ms. Harris intends to make her selection in the near future, and of course the Noise, probably foolishly, wishes to get in its two cents before she does.
She should name PA Gov. Josh Shapiro, 51, as her running mate. I have never seen Mr. Shapiro speak, but it’s seemingly by far the wisest choice based upon reputation and Electoral College math. Mr. Shapiro is reportedly very popular in Pennsylvania, and the Keystone State, with its 19 Electoral College votes, is the one upper Midwestern “Blue Wall” state for which Democrats have no effective counter if they lose [i.e., Ms. Harris could lose Michigan (15) if she wins Georgia or North Carolina (each 16, although both are obviously more difficult electoral challenges for her than Michigan) and could lose Wisconsin (10) if she wins Arizona (11; again, admittedly a longer political stretch.)] An additional plus is that Mr. Shapiro, who is Jewish, has been a vocal supporter of Israel’s war against Hamas. Without getting into the substance of what our Israel-Hamas policy should be, I would suggest that a Harris-Shapiro ticket would allow the Democrats to have it both ways: Ms. Harris, who looks (although she is not) a bit Middle Eastern, can declare that Israel has the right to defend itself while expressing concern about Palestinian civilians while Mr. Shapiro loudly proclaims Israel’s right to defend itself.
[The swing state theory outlined above could also suggest Ms. Harris’ selection of NC Gov. Roy Cooper as a running mate; I’m not as keen on Gov. Cooper since his age (67) would blunt Democrats’ sudden youth advantage against former President and MAGA Nominee Donald Trump and I think Mr. Cooper’s presence on the Democratic ticket would be significantly less likely to secure North Carolina against Mr. Trump than Mr. Shapiro’s will to win Pennsylvania.]
Now, on to the delicious irony that by withdrawing from the presidential campaign, President Joe Biden now holds perhaps a decisive opportunity to cap over half a century of service to America. I have often suggested in these pages that the outcome of this election – i.e., the future of our democracy — will not be decided by the rabid bases of either party but by the mostly suburban moderate Republicans and conservative independents in the swing states who are disturbed by Mr. Trump’s undemocratic inclinations, erratic impulses and hateful passions but, according to apparently all polling, were even more concerned before the President stepped aside about his physical capability to lead us for another four years. I would submit that these voters, despite the alt-right propaganda machine’s best efforts to demonize Mr. Biden, think of the President as a fine man, a good guy who means what he says, who is now simply too old to carry the burdens of the presidency for another four years.
Mr. Biden has steadfastly maintained until this past weekend that he was the best positioned Democrat to bring about Mr. Trump’s defeat in November. He might not have been then. He is now.
The accolades that have poured in for the President since he announced his withdrawal as a patriot who has placed the good of country over his personal ambition are indications that Mr. Biden has transformed himself overnight, among the decisive moderate segment of our electorate, from doddering power seeker into America’s Eminence Grise (“Gray Eminence”) – its wise advisor. These moderates may or may not agree with all of Mr. Biden’s policies, but I doubt that they’re notably concerned about his mental acuity today and I would suggest that his credibility with these people as both the sitting President of the United States and one wishes what is best for our his people – who now has nothing personally to gain by what he says – has likely never been higher than it will be for the remainder of his term.
One of the great fears of the Kennedy Campaign in 1960 was that the Nixon Campaign would have then President Dwight Eisenhower – the leader of our victorious forces in Europe during World War II, then finishing eight years as president in which he presided over our nation’s 1950s economic boom, and significantly more popular with Americans than either man campaigning to replace him – stump for his Vice President, Richard Nixon. Although Mr. Eisenhower was reportedly willing to campaign – he apparently deeply resented John Kennedy’s criticism of his record — he never went on the road, because the Nixon Campaign never asked. In campaign post-mortems, accounts varied as to why Mr. Eisenhower wasn’t more effectively deployed. Mr. Nixon maintained that he didn’t want to overly stress Mr. Eisenhower, who had suffered a heart attack during his presidency (and at 70, was considered pretty old 😉 ); others suggested that Mr. Nixon, chafing at having had little influence during his eight years as Vice President, wanted to win the presidency on his own. Either way, Mr. Eisenhower’s absence from the campaign trail was arguably a pivotal factor in Mr. Nixon’s narrow defeat.
I am confident that Ms. Harris will want Mr. Biden on the road. I am equally confident that Mr. Biden will want to be on the road. This promises to be a quiet six months on the world stage. Russian President Vladimir Putin (with the prospect that a Trump presidency that will ease if not ensure his takeover of Ukraine), Chinese President Xi Jinping (with the prospect that an isolationist Trump presidency will ease his takeover of Taiwan), Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (undoubtedly cognizant that Mr. Biden, free of political ramifications, might, if provoked, use American power to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability), and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un (who is well aware that his nation will fare better with Mr. Trump, a gullible fool, as president and likely also fearful that Mr. Biden, free of political restraints, might act to destroy North Korea’s nuclear capacity) are all unlikely to do anything provocative. Clearly, absent bipartisan measures that might be required to address a domestic disaster such as hurricane damage, no legislation will pass Congress.
Mr. Biden is more fluent, a more effective speaker, when he speaks from the heart, and now free of the responsibilities of leading a campaign, relieved of the awareness that any gaffes he makes on the stump will be the entire focus of a ravenous media, I expect him to pull out all stops. He needs to hold nothing back; he has the rest of his life after January 20, 2025, to relax and enjoy his family. Wrapped in the trappings of the presidency and the aura of a man who has been willing to put country ahead of personal gain, I would submit that his declarations about what another Trump presidency will mean for America will carry tremendous, possibly decisive, weight with moderates. While only the Vice President can assure undecideds that she is qualified for the presidency, I predict that Mr. Biden will be the Vice President’s most effective surrogate, will be a more effective cajoler of swing state swing voters than Ms. Harris herself.
If Mr. Biden does enthusiastically engage in the campaign as I anticipate he will, and if Ms. Harris does win the presidency, Mr. Biden’s last contributions to our nation will have been to protect democracy and lay the path for our first woman president. In my view, he will already go down as our most important president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. However, speaking as one old Irishman about another, perhaps none of these achievements will be as sweet for him as the knowledge that he did, indeed, have the last word; that he beat Donald Trump one more time.
McCoy's Noise 