On Frogs in Warming Water

[Note:  This post was delayed until now because a note on the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, published on Monday, had greater immediacy (although not greater importance.) That said, I cannot overstate my chagrin as last Friday night we watched PBS NewsHour Commentators Jonathan Capehart and David Brooks discuss the danger I address below, citing many of the same incidents and using the same analogies – right down to referencing frogs 😉 .  If you saw the NewsHour last Friday, accept my solemn pledge that what you read was saved before I saw the broadcast.  If you didn’t see the NewsHour, if nothing else you’ll learn how we have underestimated the sense of a well-known member of the amphibian community. 🙂    On the substance of what follows:  it’s being made in many quarters; what follows has very probably already occurred to you; but it cannot be repeated too often.]

On August 11, flanked by his Secretary of Defense, his Attorney General, and his FBI Director, President Donald Trump declared as he announced his deployment of National Guard troops to the nation’s Capital:  “We’re taking our Capital back. … This [crime] issue directly affects the functioning of the federal government and is a threat to America, really; it’s a threat to our country.  We have other cities that are bad, very bad.  You look at Chicago, how bad it is.  You look at Los Angeles, how bad it is. We have other cities that are very bad.  New York has a problem.  And then you have of course Baltimore and Oakland, you don’t even mention that any more, they’re so far gone.  We’re not going to lose our cities over this.  And this will go further.  We’re starting very strongly with D.C. … You’ll have more police, and you’ll be so happy because you’ll be safe when you walk down the street.  You’re gonna see police, or you’re gonna see FBI agents.  We’re going to have a lot of agents on the street.  You’re gonna have a lot of essentially military – and we will bring in the military it it’s needed, by the way [Emphasis Added].”

Note how adroitly Mr. Trump and his minions have shifted the goal posts of our sensitivities:

We’ve had the pardoning of those convicted of participating in the January 6, 2021, assault on our nation’s Capitol incited by Mr. Trump, including those convicted of violent and seditious activities.  The pardons probably offended the majority of Americans, but even Mr. Trump’s critics concede that he has the Constitutional power to grant pardons and he was elected.

We’ve had the purge at the Justice Department and the FBI of those officials who took part in the investigation of the January 6, 2021, insurrection.  These actions were offensive to many Americans, but even Mr. Trump’s critics concede that he has Constitutional authority over the Executive Branch.

Through Mr. Trump’s authorization to Industrialist Elon Musk’s “DOGE” squad, we’ve had the purge of career civil servants in those federal departments and agencies, from foreign policy to health to climate science, most likely to debunk the nonsense that the President and his supporters spout.  But the federal government is not as efficient as we’d like, and even Mr. Trump’s critics concede that he has Constitutional authority over the Executive Branch.  (Mr. Musk, who spent millions on Mr. Trump’s campaign, took the brunt of the bad public relations for these efforts and was then jettisoned by the White House – a true tour de force demonstrating who, after all, was indeed president.)

Recently, Mr. Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed by the Senate on a bipartisan basis in 2024, when the Bureau issued a jobs report that reflected badly on the President’s stewardship of the economy.  But there is a credible position that the manner in which the Bureau gathers and analyzes jobs data is flawed, and even Mr. Trump’s critics concede that he has Constitutional authority over the Executive Branch.  (Put aside that Mr. Trump didn’t dismiss Ms. McEntarfer for incompetence, but said – without evidence as far as I am aware – that he thought that Bureau’s report was “rigged” against him.  Also put aside that the financial markets continue blythefully upward, seemingly oblivious that accurate assessments of the economy require accurate – not Trump-sanitized – federal government data.)

Mr. Trump has deployed National Guard troops and Marines to the streets of Los Angeles, but such deployment was ostensibly done to protect ICE agents enforcing our immigration laws against illegal immigrants, and even Mr. Trump’s critics concede that he has Constitutional authority to protect Executive Branch officials exercising their responsibilities.

Mr. Trump has deployed National Guard troops and FBI agents to our nation’s Capital, but it’s undisputed that D.C. has a crime problem, and even Mr. Trump’s critics concede that the federal government – of which he is the chief magistrate — has the overall legal authority for managing the District. 

Mr. Trump has indicated that the “homeless [in D.C.] have to move out, IMMEDIATELY,” and that his Administration “will give [the homeless] places to stay, but FAR from the Capital. [Emphasis Mr. Trump’s].”   But it’s undisputed that homelessness is a serious problem in many of our cities, there are vagrancy laws, and even Mr. Trump’s critics concede that that the federal government has the overall legal authority for managing the District.  (Put aside where and – from an Administration that enthusiastically embraced the notion of an “Alligator Alcatraz” for illegal immigrants — how hospitable these “places to stay” for the homeless – the majority of whom are American citizens, a tragic subset of them veterans — will be.)

Now, go back and look at Mr. Trump’s August 11 comments.  Although I am confident that those in dangerous neighborhoods in Chicago, Los Angeles, Baltimore, Oakland, and countless other cities desperately and understandably want safer streets, crime – outside the nation’s Capital — is quintessentially a local issue.  One Chicagoan or Angelino killing another in a grocery store, heinous as it is, is a local matter, not a federal one.  If citizens in these cities don’t feel safe on their streets, they should by all means get new city officials.  I am sick unto death with those who refuse to take Mr. Trump at his word:  that his Administration intends to go further, that it is starting with the nation’s Capital, that it will bring in the military if it’s needed (i.e., if the Administration thinks it’s needed).  No matter what trumped-up rationale (the adjective, of course, intentional) the Administration dreams up, any deployment of National Guard troops to enforce local criminal laws outside Washington, D.C. would involve federal troops acting beyond their legal purview – i.e., acting illegally — against American citizens.  Some would welcome it — at least initially. 

Mr. Trump is slowly, skillfully, turning up the burner.  We are being warmed up.

It turns out that frogs have more sense than they’re given credit for.  When I conducted an internet search to determine whether frogs will indeed stay in gradually warming water until they boil to death, the now-ever-present Google “AI Overview” indicated:  No, a frog will not stay in boiling water and will attempt to escape. The idea that a frog will stay in water that is gradually heated until it boils is a common myth, often used as a metaphor for how humans can fail to react to gradual changes. Scientific experiments and observations have shown that frogs will jump out of water that is heated to uncomfortable temperatures, regardless of whether the heating is gradual or immediate.”

While it is easier for those of us who live in safe areas to look at this issue dispassionately, I fear that too many of our people don’t have the sense God gave a frog. 

Mr. Trump is deftly bringing us to a boil.

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