As all who care are aware, the MAGA-controlled Texas legislature recently enacted legislation redrawing Texas’ legislative districts in a manner that could net Republicans an additional five seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 Congressional elections, and the Democrat-controlled California legislature has responded with measures which, if approved by California voters, will redraw the state’s Congressional districts through 2030 in a manner intended to cancel out Republicans’ projected gains in Texas. Other states may join the fray. Commentators indicate that on the whole, these machinations favor Republicans.
Obviously, gerrymandering legislative districts at congressional and state office levels by both parties is nothing new, although computer analysis now enables unscrupulous legislators to eke out advantages previously unattainable. At the same time, as all who care are also aware, until this latest exchange by Texas and California, mid-cycle redistricting (i.e., between decennial censuses) has been uncommon.
I would suggest that it is difficult for any analyst to predict the final result of these maneuvers. Redrawing legislative boundaries seemingly narrows the controlling party’s advantage in previously “safe” seats, and Republicans could be running under fairly adverse political conditions as the Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” take hold and if his tariffs reignite inflation as many economists predict. Republicans currently hold a 7-seat advantage in the House of Representatives. Since World War II, the average midterm loss for the party in the White House is 25 seats. Democrats lost 50 seats in 2010 under President Barack Obama. Republicans lost 40 seats in 2018, the last time Mr. Trump was mid-term. If Mr. Trump’s initiatives sufficiently irritate the weakest segments of his 2024 electoral support, the Democrats may reclaim the House even if the California initiative loses.
I have seen different credible philosophical arguments about ethical redistricting. Wisconsin is a prime example: the state, with 8 House seats, has a citizenry divided almost evenly between Democrats and Republicans, but the vast majority of Democrat-leaners are heavily concentrated in the Milwaukee and Dane (Madison) County metro areas. While one can argue that congressional districts should be drawn to reflect the state’s even political divide, one can also argue that given the geographic confines of the Democratic strongholds, a 6/2 Republican/Democrat split – the current Wisconsin House composition – is not unreasonable.
That said, there is no philosophical underpinning to what the Texas Republicans have done. They have redrawn their state’s Congressional district boundaries because they perceive it to be to their political advantage, and because they can. It is a pure power grab.
Long prelude to a simple point: I support the California Democrats’ redistricting efforts. In the past, I wouldn’t have. I have generally been of the mind that if one stoops to the MAGA level, it’s hard to determine who the scoundrels are. But it has become glaringly apparent that in the struggle to maintain our democracy, there are few holds barred. I’m putting my scruples aside. If the California Democrats’ effort passes, it will be smarmy, but no smarmier than the Texas effort, or any other state legislature’s partisan mid-cycle redistricting efforts. All of these measures are apparently lawful, if unprincipled.
In the summer of 1941, as Great Britain finalized an alliance with Communist Russia after Nazi Germany invaded Russia, Prime Minister Winston Churchill – always a strident critic of Communism – defended the pact in part with the observation, “If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.” Less elegantly, Baseball Hall of Fame Manager Leo Durocher is by legend reported to have declared, “Nice guys finish last.”
We have descended to the lowest defensible denominator. I feel that I no longer have the luxury of being fastidious.
McCoy's Noise 