As the news media trains its spotlight this weekend on the efforts of Moe, Larry, and Curly … er … Vice President J.D. Vance, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff (a real estate developer by trade) and Presidential Son-in-Law Jared Kushner (a real estate developer whose true specialty has seemingly become exploiting his relationship with his father-in-law) to reach an enduring peace settlement with the Iranian regime in Pakistan, I suggest that the weekend event having the greatest impact on the future of human democracy is not there – where I am willing to wager there will be a lot of diddling around, with very little progress — but rather in the outcome of the election taking place tomorrow – April 12 — in Hungary, in which Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his party, democratic in name, autocratic in fact, are in what has been reported to be a close contest against challenger Péter Magyar and his supporters. (Apparently, if it is indeed a close race, Mr. Orbán and his people haven’t yet gained the level of control over his nation’s voting processes mastered by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the lately-deposed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.)
[An (long) aside on the Iran talks, nonetheless. There has been a fair amount of speculation in the press as to why President Donald Trump disregarded one of the primary tenets of international diplomacy by choosing Moe … er, Mr. Vance to lead the American delegation in the talks with the Iranians; the conventional wisdom is that using a high level emissary in preliminary negotiation raises the risks and ramifications arising from any failure. One might also have the concern that Mr. Vance was a poor choice because he has been in politics about a minute and a half and obviously has no meaningful background in the nuances of Middle East politics, even compared to Larry and C … er, Messrs. Witkoff and Kushner. My guess: Mr. Trump, who even as he degrades, undoubtedly retains very sophisticated instincts of self-preservation, is well aware that as his Iranian adventure has clearly gone sideways, Mr. Vance, in an effort to maintain his standing with the MAGA base for a 2028 presidential run, has leaked to whomever will listen that he was against the invasion from the beginning (such a leak, even is such was the case, is the primary No-No of presidential – vice presidential relations in any administration). Now, Mr. Vance has been roped in to the Trump policy. If the talks succeed, the success is Mr. Trump’s; if the talks fail, the failure is Mr. Vance’s; and if Mr. Trump doesn’t like what Mr. Vance achieves, the President can disown it and publicly politically emasculate Mr. Vance. As little sympathy as I have for Mr. Trump, if that’s what he’s thinking by sending Mr. Vance to Pakistan, pretty clever. A longer post on Mr. Vance will hopefully appear in these pages before too long, but right now, if I have ventured accurately, what the President is doing to his Vice President couldn’t be happening to a more-deserving guy. 😉].
On to Hungary. As all who care are aware, Mr. Orbán came to power by democratic means well over a decade ago but since that time has taken extensive measures to close off any challenge to his right-wing party, and reporting is too extensive not to conclude that he has made Hungary – a member of NATO and the European Union – a tool of Russian President Vladimir Putin and done all he can to hinder NATO’s and the EU’s assistance to Ukraine’s attempt to hold off the Russian invasion. (There are credible reports that high Hungarian officials under Mr. Orbán’s command have been communicating the details of NATO’s strategies to defend Ukraine to Russian officials.) (On a less strategic note, I also think that one can fairly surmise that during Mr. Orbán’s years in power, while he has espoused Hungarian nationalism and railed against the fall of Western Civilization, progressives and immigrants, he hasn’t let too many helpings of goulash pass him by. 😉)
There are obviously sufficient concerns about the election’s outcome in the Orbán camp and among the world’s autocratic regimes that the Trump Regime dispatched Mr. Vance to campaign for Mr. Orbán. (We’ll let that maneuver, an unthinkable diplomatic faux pas in any other administration, par for the course for the Trump Regime, go by). I am most struck by the irony and hypocrisy in reports that Mr. Orbán is claiming that Mr. Magyar’s campaign is being assisted by sinister outside forces – when he clearly has the forces of the Putin and Trump Regimes on his side. Now, that takes some chutzpah.
From reading I did some time ago, but concede have not confirmed for this note, I understand that neither NATO or the EU have mechanisms for expelling any member once admitted. If that is indeed the case – speaking as someone who spent a lot of his career drafting commercial agreements, for which exit clauses were almost the first issues one considered – such were colossal oversights. That said, I understand that no matter what the level of frustration that Mr. Orbán’s obstructive behavior is causing NATO and the EU at this juncture, no move could be made by these organizations at this time to expel Hungary; such would be all the pretext that Mr. Trump – such an obvious supporter of Mr. Orbán — might need to pull the United States out of NATO (in fact, if not in law).
What transpires if Mr. Magyar and his supporters do prevail – I suspect that the polling done in the race, which I understand favors the challengers, is probably less than truly precise – remains to be seen. Some observers are declaring that such a victory would be a significant blow to alt-right movements across the globe. That said, the first step is to see if they do indeed prevail. I have seen commentators opine that even if it is clear that Mr. Orbán loses, he will not go quietly; he certainly has a seditious roadmap to follow, provided by a kindred spirit across the ocean. (Ironically, as much as Putin will want to help Mr. Orbán stay in power, I’m sure that the Russian President sees that Russia cannot overtly attempt to maintain Mr. Orbán in power; such would be considered an attack on a NATO nation. 😊)
We’ll see what happens. Let us hope for the best.
McCoy's Noise 