As we approach today’s Game 3 of the Milwaukee – Colorado NLDS, I admit that I was a bit disconcerted by the way the talking heads covering the Brewers’ second victory over the Rockies so cavalierly dismissed Colorado’s chances of coming back to win the series. Those of us with longer memories will recall that even in the Brewers’ most renowned season to date, 1982, they fell behind the California Angels 2-0 in the ALCS … and sent California home by winning three in a row. For those with more recent memories, our son reminded me yesterday that in the 2011 NLDS, the Brewers beat the Diamondbacks in the first two games in Milwaukee, then lost the next two games in Arizona, and only went to the next round by beating the D’Backs in Milwaukee in Game 5.
I would suggest that while Brewer fans might understandably feel optimistic, no chickens should be counted until the third victory has … hatched 😉 …
In early June, I entered a post noting that baseball is a long season, and that the Milwaukee Brewers’ performance up to that time – then the best record in the National League, with a 3+ game lead on the Chicago Cubs – would only mean something if the Brewers stood up through the summer; what would matter was where the team stood after Labor Day.
We’re now well past Labor Day. As of today, Milwaukee has, through acquisition of additional talent and adroit use of its pitching staff, played incredibly well down the stretch; it is but two games behind Chicago for the NL Central lead while building a four and half game advantage for a post season Wild Card berth.
While it will be validating for Milwaukee to reach the postseason at any level, I’m not a big fan of baseball’s Wild Card playoff. Unlike the NFL, where every playoff game is “sudden death,” it seems odd to me – recognizing the seasonal constraints that Major League Baseball faces when it extends its playoff period — that a Wild Card team that labors over countless series of games to reach the postseason has to win one game or be eliminated.
That said, the system is what it is. There is, however, a way for Milwaukee to avoid the risk of a “one and done”: win the National League Central outright. The team has one game left with the Cubs – tonight. If it wins, it will be only one game behind Chicago, with each team having about 15 games to play; I’ll personally like its chances of winning the Division. If it loses, Chicago’s three-game lead in the Division – while anything can happen in baseball – will be formidable. Chicago has already won a World Championship with primarily the same cast as it has now.
So what will it be for the Brewers? In a phrase that all sports fans have heard countless times (which doesn’t make it less true): If they want to Be the Best, they have to Beat the Best …
We Milwaukee Brewer fans are understandably pleased with the team’s fast start; beginning action today, Milwaukee is in first place in the National League Central Division (three and a half games ahead of the formidable Cubs), and has the best record in the National League.
Even so, only a third of the season has passed. While many teams over the years have come back from mediocre starts to win championships, and a terrible start lasting into June almost invariably dooms a team’s season, a strong start is generally indicative of … not much. The Brewers have had great starts in the past. The 1987 team began 13-0 on its way to a 20-3 start — and didn’t make the playoffs. Even the great Robin Yount – Paul Molitor World Series team of 1982 had better than a six game lead in late August – and still needed two Yount home runs on the last day of the season to squeeze into the postseason.
So while we Brewer fans are enjoying the ride thus far, the time to start thinking about playoff possibilities is after Labor Day weekend, not after Memorial Day weekend. The elation and the anguish of baseball share the same journey: It’s a long season.
To start with the positive [which one of our sons says I never do when it comes to Packer drafts 😉 ]: It certainly appears that Brian Gutekunst and his team are as focused on the Packers’ weakness at cornerback as I habitually am, and the Packers seem to be getting good marks from most commentators for selecting Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson.
Now, to revert to my customary form 🙂 … at 5-foot-10¼, Mr. Alexander seems to have a mountain to climb (figuratively, and, against some of the NFL’s sizeable receiving threats, literally) to avoid ending up as another Terrell Buckley and Ahmad Carroll (for those with shorter memories, two shorter corners selected in the first round by GB who never lived up to the hype). I’ve seen it said, “Heart is more important than hype,” and while I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment for life generally, all the heart in the world isn’t going to be enough for a corner under 5’11” against the likes of receivers such as (to pick memorable examples from the past) Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens. Mr. Gutekunst must be projecting Mr. Alexander to be his slot corner, and Mr. Jackson to be someone who will be able to take over after learning from Tramon Williams (I confess a fondness for Tramon; great to have him back, even if he is now a bit long in the tooth.) Let’s hope.
An observation: if I was Quinten Rollins, I’d have my bags packed (Mr. Rollins was another corner who was ballyhooed for his athleticism who has never really matured in the way GB obviously hoped).
Another observation: by ignoring edge rushers with the first two picks and selecting ILB Oren Burks in the third round rather than an edge rusher, Mr. Gutekunst and his team have clearly made the bet that they can get a quality 2018 out of Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, and, based upon what the staff must have seen in practice, that if/when one of these two injury-prone players go down, Vince Biegel (picked in last year’s draft by Ted Thompson rather than T. J. Watt; another sore point, given Mr. Watt’s stellar 2017) will — having gotten over his injuries — be an impact contributor. Let’s hope some more.
On we march!
The Wisconsin State Journal was reporting in the days leading up to the Packers’ selection of Brian Gutekunst (whose name I can’t yet pronounce) as their new General Manager that the Packers had an interest in hiring Seattle General Manager John Schneider. As reported by The Wisconsin State Journal and The Seattle Times, Mr. Schneider, a Wisconsin native, had an out in his Seattle contract until 2016 that would have enabled him to go to Green Bay if he wished. That right was eliminated from his current contract, and Seattle reportedly rejected Green Bay’s request to interview Mr. Schneider for the GB GM role. After that, GB CEO Mark Murphy turned to Mr. Gutekunst.
Mr. Gutekunst may, despite his lack of experience as a General Manager, prove to be an excellent choice for the role; that said, the team clearly had an interest in Mr. Schneider, who already has an excellent track record as a GM. Given the rumblings about former Packer GM Ted Thompson’s performance that predate the expiration of Mr. Schneider’s last contract, let us hope that we don’t find that Mr. Murphy lost a better GM because he waited too long to pull the plug on Mr. Thompson. Of one thing we can be sure: if Mr. Thompson had been in Mr. Murphy’s position, such a delay is not a mistake that Mr. Thompson would have made …
This has been such a sad year for us Packer faithful that there hasn’t been much to write about. However, to add insult to injury, I read yesterday that Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt – formerly a ballyhooed Badger – made the NFL’s all-rookie team; meanwhile, the Badger linebacker that Green Bay selected when it could have selected Mr. Watt – Vince Biegel – spent most of the year injured and didn’t – at least to me – create much impact when he was on the field late in the season.
Time will tell. Perhaps, Mr. Biegel – assuming he’s healthy — will outshine Mr. Watt starting next year; but if he doesn’t, and Mr. Watt continues to shine, that’ll be a blown pick on the scale of Ron Wolf’s selection of Terrell Buckley instead of Troy Vincent in the 1992 draft. I’ve always felt that the Buckley pick – leaving the Packers with a hole in secondary that Troy Aikman exploited for several years, until Mr. Wolf drafted Craig Newsome in 1995 – cost the Packers an earlier Super Bowl Championship in the Favre era …