A Visit to Mr. Rodgers’ Neighborhood

Let’s take a short break from our struggle to maintain the American way of life and consider a subject thoroughly irrelevant:  the fortunes of the Green Bay Packers.

A glance at the NFL NFC Conference standings at the time this is typed shows that if the playoffs were to begin this weekend – a silly notion, but stick with me – Green Bay would hold the top seed in the NFC.  Having seen the Green and Gold play a few times – not all of their games, mind you, but most – one thought immediately comes to mind:  that if the playoffs did start this weekend, Green Bay would be the team that all the other playoff teams would most want to play.  To say that the Packers have seemed less than a juggernaut thus far … well … sums it up.

I did watch (on tape delay, of course) Green Bay’s recent victory over the Arizona Cardinals.  Looking at the Cardinals’ record and not being aware of their back story, one might assume that the narrowness of Green Bay’s victory underscores my case.  Here, I would differ.  Arizona has apparently had a bunch of close and tough losses, and the Cardinals played hard.  They’re a significantly better team than their record, and the Packers can be proud of their victory.  Arizona backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett had a truly impressive performance, but watching the game made me feel in one respect that it was déjà vu … all over again.

I have lamented more than once in these pages over the years that the Brett Favre Packers should have won more Super Bowls than the one they claimed, but they had a weak link that for years the Dallas Cowboys exploited:  in the 1992 NFL Draft, then-Green Bay General Manager Ron Wolf drafted Cornerback Terrell Buckley out of Florida State University rather that Cornerback Troy Vincent out of the University of Wisconsin, and while Mr. Vincent went on to have a distinguished career, Mr. Buckley didn’t experience the success that the Packers had hoped for.  In crunch time in big games between the Cowboys and the Packers, then-Cowboy quarterback Troy Aikman would seemingly simply pass to whichever of his talented wide receivers Mr. Buckley was trying to cover.  The results were predictable.  The Green and Gold didn’t finally win a championship, despite having Mr. Favre, Reggie White, and a host of other talented players, until they drafted Craig Newsome, who took Mr. Buckley’s place.

And again:  in 2010, although the season ended in the only Green Bay Championship in the Aaron Rodgers years, at midseason the team was going virtually nowhere; a primary reason was that a truly remarkable cornerback and classy guy – Charles Woodson – had reached the point that he no longer had elite corner cover skills.  He was regularly being beaten.  Out of desperation, the team moved him into the slot – where, with his football smarts, he proceeded to wreak havoc on opposing offenses – and threw the completely unheralded Sam Shields, who had been a wide receiver in college, into the corner spot.  Mr. Shields unexpectedly proved to have truly elite cover corner skills.  With their Aaron Rodgers offense and a Woodson-in-the-slot, Clay Mathews-led defense, Green Bay morphed from a marginal playoff contender into a World Champion.

Since I spend little time on Green Bay during the offseason even when we’re not struggling to save American democracy, I wasn’t sorry when I heard some time after the fact that the team had parted ways with its celebrated cornerback, Jaire Alexander.  When healthy, Mr. Alexander is a premier corner, but he wasn’t healthy often enough.  That said, Linebacker Micah Parsons’ entrance – Mr. Parsons has been truly impressive — and Mr. Alexander’s departure has flipped the script for the Packers’ defense; last year, the secondary was the team’s defensive strength, its pass rush its liability; this year, Mr. Parsons has galvanized the Packers’ “front seven” while the secondary has been less impressive.  Against the Cardinals, Mr. Brissett went after Cornerback Nate Hobbs, whom the team signed to replace Mr. Alexander, with impunity.  Perhaps he was just having a bad day – it happens, and I haven’t seen all of the Packers’ games – but Mr. Hobbs looked a lot more like Mr. Buckley than he did like Mr. Alexander.

All that said, let’s move on to Green Bay’s upcoming visit to Pittsburgh for its Sunday night matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  (Packer fans – y’all know where I’m goin’ with this😉.)  While any game against the Steelers, given the team’s outstanding pedigree, is a formidable challenge, this one will be … different.  We know now-Steeler Quarterback Mr. Rodgers.  He’s a fr… well, we know him 😊.  Although he left Green Bay under seemingly-less acrimonious conditions than did Mr. Favre before him, and has said that he holds no animosity toward Green Bay, that this Sunday’s game will not be “a revenge game” for him, we know that he gets up for particular challenges, and that he will be ready to go on Sunday evening.  He’s now two years into the rehab of his Achilles injury.  I haven’t seen him play a down this year, but don’t have to.  I’m guessing that between his injury and his age, he’s not as mobile as when he was the most accurate passer on the run in NFL history, but I’ll venture that he can still move around under pressure when he has to.  There is no savvier quarterback in the NFL.  No matter what Mr. Rodgers says, I am confident that he well recalls that in his first matchup against Mr. Favre after Mr. Favre left Green Bay, Mr. Favre won. 

I fear that Mr. Hobbs might as well take off his normal Packer jersey and wear one with a big, red X on it.  Given Mr. Parsons’ and the rest of the Packers’ pass rush, the Steelers will have to keep back additional pass protection, but that ball is going to come out quick (speaking fan-speak, rather than grammatically 😉 ) or be thrown away.  You know it.  I know it.  I am confident that the Packer Defensive Braintrust and Mr. Hobbs know it.

Because of Mr. Rodgers, I will venture that this Sunday’s game, although the Steelers are in the AFC, will be as big a test for Mr. Love and the Packers as any they face this season.  If there is any good to be gleaned from Green Bay’s performances against the Cleveland Browns and the Dallas Cowboys, it’s that the team must realize that it can’t afford to be overconfident.  I’m not sure I accept the slim odds currently favoring the Pack.

We’ll see what happens.  This one will be fun.  If the Packers win, maybe they have something.  If they don’t, I’m guessing that despite their current record, they probably don’t.  (Since the game is in the evening, I’ll watch it live, perhaps even past my Medicare-aged bed time 😊 ).

Enjoy the weekend.

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

I know; a hardly original post title.  Also, that you’ve heard plenty from me lately.  Even so, a short one I can’t resist.

Earlier today, I saw a picture of the destruction of part of the outside edifice of the White House, apparently part of President Donald Trump’s plan to alter the structure.  I had been vaguely aware that Mr. Trump had announced White House remodeling plans, but have been so focused on his authoritarian actions that although the notion of his refashioning the structure rankled – in the same manner in which I’m offended that he’s turned the Oval Office into a gold-trinketed stage – it hadn’t really registered with me.  (As to the Oval Office, every new president decorates it a bit differently; I had expected Mr. Trump’s successor – if there was one – to simply get rid of the inappropriate, garish gold).

A picture of the President’s ripping at the outside of the White House – literally, destroying part of the structure – was viscerally jarring to me.  I would submit that it will be instinctively repulsive to a wide swath of Americans, even striking a chord with part of the MAGA base.

If Democrats don’t start running ads displaying pictures of the destruction of the White House edifice with captions such as, “Look at What He’s Doing,” using those as the symbol of authoritarian takeover now being undertaken by Mr. Trump and his minions, they’re even more politically inept than I thought.

NO KINGS DAY:  Signs and Omens

We attended the NO KINGS Capitol rally in downtown Madison, WI, this past Saturday.  It was a large, enthusiastic crowd; media estimates place its participants at around 15,000.  With attendant rallies across outlying Madison areas – a close friend at a rally in nearby Stoughton, WI (population 13,000), estimated the crowd there at 500 – the total turnout in our environs probably approximated 20,000.  Probably not enough in our Congressional district to shake the White House, but we’ll get back to that.

There were almost as many clever signs as there were marchers.  A favorite:  a picture of President Donald Trump on a placard bearing the inscription, “Does this ass make my sign look big?”  Another sign with a complementary theme, more poignant:  a picture of Mr. Trump on a placard bearing the inscription, “Does this ass make my country look small?”

There were a number of signs mocking MAGA’s fear and loathing of “Antifa.”  I’m aware that there is a debate as to whether there is or is not an actual “Antifa” organization – Mr. Trump says there is, and has sought to declare it a terrorist organization, while I understand that former FBI Director Christopher Wray has formerly characterized it as more an ideology than an organization – but I believe that the word, “Antifa,” itself, is simply shorthand for “anti-fascist.”  Although no one on any part of the political spectrum should ever resort to violence, or be part of any group that is willing to resort to violence, since the arguably most evil regime in the history of the modern world – responsible for the murder of millions, including millions of Jews – was proudly fascist, these signs seemed to be asking:  What is wrong with being anti-fascist?  Call me dense, but aren’t we still free because Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill led their nations in a world war against the fascist creed?  (Clearly, I’m not consuming enough alt-right media to understand the MAGA angst.)

On to the omens.  A sign I saw during the march that I considered particularly telling and potentially counterproductive (clearly unintended by the wielder):  “Too Many Issues; Not Enough Signs.”  If you’ve read many of these pages, you realize that in the context in which we’re speaking, I’m a one-issue guy:  preservation of our democracy.  I consider all other policy issues we face, no matter how important, subordinate to protecting our way of life.  We heard several speakers and chants yesterday whose point I – and I suspect other moderates — might under other circumstances question or seek to qualify.  I consider NO KINGS to be brilliant branding because it brings all of those who oppose the autocratic inclinations of the Trump Regime under one roof.  To save our way of life they must stay together.  They cannot allow themselves to be divided or distracted by “too many issues.”

Finally, an encouraging omen that I would consider dangerously ominous if I were a MAGA:  the reported 1,000 NO KINGS marchers reported to have demonstrated in Janesville, WI.  Janesville has about 66,000 residents, meaning that about a percent and a half of its people stopped what they were doing on a beautiful Wisconsin autumn Saturday to demonstrate.  I pick Janesville for two reasons:  TLOML and I know it – we lived there for three years when early married – and because it is former U.S. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan’s hometown and in the WI First Congressional District he represented in Congress.  There were reportedly other significant NO KINGS demonstrations in other Wisconsin First cities.  The Wisconsin First is now represented by Republican U.S. WI Rep. Brian Steil, also from Janesville.  Mr. Steil held his seat by 2 points in 2024.  There were also reportedly notable NO KINGS marches in the Wisconsin Third, currently represented by Republican U.S. WI Rep. Derrick Van Orden, who won his seat in 2024 by 3 points.  

Referring back to my observation above, I truly doubt that the Regime cares about the Madison NO KINGS turnout; if there were only 50 Democratic seats remaining in the U.S. House of Representatives, Madison’s would be one.  At the same time, I am confident that the Regime does care about holding the Wisconsin First and Third Districts in 2026.  I don’t know whether political voter science has yet evolved to the point that analysts can project a candidate’s or issue’s overall popularity – or unpopularity – based upon the numbers of citizens who turn out at a rally, but clearly for every demonstrator who turns out at a rally, there are “X” more who don’t turn out but agree with – and will vote in accord with — the demonstrator.  If I were Mr. Steil or Mr. Van Orden – or any other MAGA member of the House of Representatives across the country who won his/her office in 2024 by less than 5 points in a district where there were notable NO KINGS rallies last Saturday – I’d be feeling a wee bit insecure in my seat today.

On we march (figuratively as well as literally  😊).

The Race is On

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

  • Chinese General and Philosopher Sun Tzu (544 BC – 496 BC); The Art of War

I think we can confidently assume that President Donald Trump has never heard of Sun Tzu, but I would venture that a number of his strategists have.

The race to preserve the American way of life is beginning in earnest.

I have mentioned a couple of times in these pages since Mr. Trump was reelected that I presumed that Mr. Trump and his adherents recognized that on their best day, they only had the support of half of the American public, and understood that they needed to employ the Nazi model of the 1930s to quickly consolidate their control of our country if they were going to be able to reshape it to their vision.  They have certainly done so.  An exhaustive list of their nondemocratic activities since taking office would probably consume more life space that either of us have remaining, so let’s limit ourselves to just a few:

Deploying National Guard troops on the streets of Los Angeles and Chicago over the objections of local authorities, seeking to deploy them in Portland, OR (again, over the objections of local authorities), and threatening New York and other cities whose citizens clearly oppose the Trump Regime.  (Add to that the Regime’s recent assemblage of all senior military officers, in which Mr. Trump’s vaguely referred to use of our active military in American cities.  This was arguably intended to intimidate reluctant officers; these men and women are understandably worried about their careers like everyone else.)   

Promiscuously employing ICE agents across the country.  The incidents of ICE agents’ overzealous and at times unwarranted actions are too numerous to mention.  I speculated in a post after Mr. Trump pardoned the January 6, 2021, insurrectionists that the pardoned Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers might provide the President his own private Sturmabteilung (the “SA”; Adolf Hitler’s Brownshirts, who terrorized Nazi opponents before he took power).  ICE is arguably edging toward being the Regime’s quasi-legal Sturmabteilung.  (ICE agents were recently walking the streets of Madison, WI.  Madison’s “illegal” Latino population cannot be significant by nationwide standards; however, since Madison is the heart of anti-Trump sentiment in swing state Wisconsin, the Administration was laying a predicate.)

Blowing up small boats in international waters.  There has been, of course, no evidence presented that any of these boats were carrying illegal drugs headed for the United States.  The notion that we are fighting a “war” which justifies American use of deadly force without adjudication is absurd. This is rogue nation murder.

The Administration’s recently-commenced prosecutions of former FBI Director James Comey and New York State Attorney General Letitia James by some pretty former lackey lawyer of Mr. Trump’s for alleged crimes that career federal prosecutors were unwilling to pursue.  The Regime isn’t trying to hide its attempt to seek retribution against its enemies; it is reveling in it.  That is the point.

We don’t need to go back over the inaction of gutless Congressional Republicans, the complicity of the Administration’s Supreme Court, the Regime’s attempt to intimidate powerful universities that oppose it, and MAGA-controlled state legislatures’ current mid-cycle redistricting efforts to stave off the Administration’s otherwise historically seemingly almost certain loss of control of the U.S. House of Representatives in January, 2026.

Given Mr. Trump’s obvious dictatorial inclinations, all of these could be predicted.  What I have found yet more instructive is Mr. Trump’s approach to the government shutdown.

In a post a few weeks ago, I asserted that forcing a government shutdown was an ill-conceived strategy for Democrats in their battle for public opinion because “… the next time that Americans ultimately blame a government shutdown on the party in power … will be the first time.”  If reported polls are accurate, I have so far been wrong (I bet you find that shocking 😊); Democrats have been holding their own.  Having been wrong has obviously never deterred me from offering further opinions, so I will venture this:  Democrats have found such support among a wide swath of the Americans not only because their position against skyrocketing health care premiums has “broken through” to the public but because Mr. Trump’s marginal 2024 voters – the ones that put him over the top – have become uneasy with the Administration’s autocratic excesses, not what they expected (despite Mr. Trump’s clear campaign rhetoric; we always have to give him that) or wanted.

Mr. Trump is the savviest reader and manipulator of public opinion in our generation.  He can read the polls.  Account after account in the media has indicated that the increase in Affordable Care Act premiums and loss of Medicaid benefits projected to be wrought by his markedly unpopular “Big Beautiful Bill (the ‘BBB’)” will disproportionately adversely impact his voters.  At the same time, he is so much better at messaging than the Democrats that on any day, he could sweep in, tell his lickspittle Congressional Republicans to support the legislative measures Democrats want, and claim that he brokered the peace.  He clearly can’t give a damn about any increase to our federal deficit resulting from the Democrats’ measure; even his staunchest supporters would have to concede that he doesn’t care about debt.  And a year from now, his gullible supporters won’t recall that their access to affordable health care was preserved by the Democrats’ stand. 

So why doesn’t he deal?

I would submit that it is because his priority is consolidation of power, not policy or even popularity within his base.  I’ll venture that he sees this as a pivotal moment; if Democrats are perceived – not among hardcore MAGAs, but among independents – to have scored a victory, he will be weakened when he has not yet fully taken control of the American populace.  He is out to crush the opposition at this moment, when his autocratic measures are confronting increasing discontent in a citizenry that for 250 years has been accustomed to think and speak for itself.

All who read these notes are aware that we regularly tune in to MSNBC’s Morning Joe, and that my inclinations frequently align with the show’s host, former U.S. FL Rep. Joe Scarborough.  That said, I have recently been raising an eyebrow at Mr. Scarborough’s observations about the ultimate political ramifications of the Trump Regime’s increasingly autocratic measures; his comments have frequently been in the vein, “What goes around comes around; they should be worried about the next time, when Democrats take control of the White House and Congress.”  My attitude is different, formed from the approach that I took toward negotiating commercial arrangements for almost 40 years:  assume that the other guy (in a genderless sense, of course 😉) is at least as bright as you are, and knows at least as much as you do.  So if s/he’s acting in a way that seems contrary to his/her interest, what does s/he know that you’re not factoring in?

I would suggest that the answer is straightforward, certainly supported by Regime actions during its first nine months seemingly contrary to its own political popularity:  MAGAs don’t intend to let it “come around,” or that there will be “a next time.”  To suggest otherwise defies what is right before our eyes.  Too many have spent too much of the last decade underestimating Donald Trump and the MAGA movement.     

The next federal midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, obviously just a little over a year distant.  When Mr. Trump was reelected, I thought that the struggle for the American way of life might be put off until the 2028 presidential election; now I think the upcoming election is the key.

Remember Sun Tzu.  While all demonstrations against the Regime must be peaceful – to do otherwise plays into its hands – don’t be subdued.  Hopefully, you will have the opportunity to participate in a NO KINGS rally today.  Although we have seen any number of truly witty signs over the last nine months, I plan to carry the ultimate symbol of protest and freedom – an American flag. 

Disparate Impressions

First, something I should have added to the recent post relating to the passing of former Wall Street Journal Personal Financial Columnist Jonathan Clements:  although Vanguard founder John Bogle, legendary investor Warren Buffett, and Mr. Clements all believe/ed that the American stock market would rise and individuals would reap satisfactory returns over the long run by investing in no-load, low-cost index funds tracking the markets, Mr. Buffett has famously said that he has no idea what the stock market will do tomorrow, and Messrs. Bogle and Clements would have undoubtedly agreed.  Accordingly, any funds one requires for an impending purchase should be safely harbored until spent in a federally-insured cash account.  There – my Irish Catholic conscience is clear (at least on this score 😉).       

It appears that President Donald Trump is brokering an end to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.  Whether any settlement will last – at the time this is typed, the shooting reportedly continues, and Middle Easterners have been warring for as close to forever as you can get in this finite existence – Mr. Trump may be achieving what I consider the most important immediate priority relating to the conflict:  ending the brutal slaughter of Palestinians, particularly children.  Although Israel’s activities were obviously precipitated by the Hamas attack, its response has been savagely disproportionate.  This is no reflection on the Israeli people, but on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who should be in an international jail for life.  Although I am not the first to say this, I acknowledge that Mr. Trump’s intervention was pivotal.  The “only Nixon could go to China” analogy is grossly overused, but it is accurate here.  The leaders of the cooperating Arab nations trust him because he thinks like they do.  Although the objective terms of the announced pact overwhelmingly favor Israel, Mr. Netanyahu could have suspended his military operation in Gaza long ago had he wished to do so.  When Mr. Trump pressured Mr. Netanyahu, as he reportedly did, to cease his military assault, Mr. Netanyahu was undoubtedly mindful that Mr. Trump was the only American president since the founding of Israel who could if he chose cut off aid to Israel and get away with it politically.      

Putting aside the moral dimensions and looking at the assassination of MAGA Activist Charlie Kirk in cold political terms, it is arguable that the only things that the deranged young man who assassinated Mr. Kirk achieved through his heinous act was to drive all reference to Mr. Trump’s relationship with convicted Child Trafficker Jeffrey Epstein – the one area in which Mr. Trump had seemingly been vulnerable with his MAGA base – out of the media consciousness, and to provide Mr. Trump and his MAGA minions a pretext upon which to more aggressively harass and stifle the free speech of Mr. Trump’s critics.

With the return of the NFL season, I have been spending more time with sports media.  This may just now be registering with me, but growing up in a family plagued by addiction – albeit a different one — I am appalled at the emphasis placed on gambling in these telecasts.  I have noted repeated ads by FanDuel, by DraftKings, by BetMGM, am aware that there are many other online betting organizations, and hear plenty of betting talk among the commentators.  So let’s take a bunch of immature, unmoored, desperate, mostly impecunious, mostly male young Americans and constantly wave the temptation to bet in their faces, make it easy to bet, make it look easy to win, and see what happens.  I have not read the 2018 Supreme Court decision that enabled widespread online sports gambling and concede that this decision is not the most injurious to the American way of life that the Court has or will issue, but that doesn’t mean that easy-does-it online sports betting hasn’t and won’t lead to the ruination of quite a few (disproportionately young) lives.

I am disgusted with justifications frequently put forth to defend those Congressional Republicans who allegedly deplore Mr. Trump’s policies – and him – behind closed doors, but through their subservience enable Administration activities.  Those seeking to rationalize these Republicans’ behaviors note that these officeholders fear being “primaried” by other MAGAs professing greater fealty to Mr. Trump, and/or that they fear literal physical retribution against themselves or their families if they don’t adhere to the MAGA line.  I don’t buy it.  These Republicans — if such do exist — are in the Congress of the United States.  Nobody made them run for Congress.  Under the Constitution, they each get a vote as to whether the United States should declare war on another nation – and if they so vote, thousands of military families, whether or not they agree with the declaration, will find loved ones in harm’s way.  So these gutless Republicans fear losing a seat in Congress?  As to the fear of physical retribution, they should, given the responsibility they have voluntarily chosen, be placing their own physical safety below that which they consider good for the nation and their constituents.  While all can sympathize with a member’s concern for the wellbeing of his/her family, my reaction here is:  send your family to live where they cannot be easily located by MAGA zealots while you finish out your term, announce that you are stepping down at the end of your term, and then do what you believe is right during the remainder of your term.  If you can’t do that, take the simpler approach, and resign right now.  Grow a … er … spine.  You’re not in high school, the frat, or the sorority any more.

Enough impressions for one note.  Nationwide NO KINGS rallies are scheduled for Saturday, October 18.  Judging by the national website, there will be one near you, no matter where you are.  If you plan to participate, anticipate that ICE or other Administration agents will establish a presence.  STAY PEACEFUL.  NEITHER PROVOKE, NOR BE PROVOKED.  In the meantime, enjoy the fall weekend upon us.

On the Passing of Jonathan Clements

I suspect that all who read these notes have been approached at some time or other – and likely multiple times – by persons or organizations wishing to serve as their financial advisors.  I have invariably responded to these inquires over the years with the reply, “I already have the two best financial advisors one could ask for – John Bogle and Warren Buffett.”

We’ll get to how Mr. Buffett figures into our personal financial equation at the end of this note; the late Mr. Bogle, less well known to the American public, founded Vanguard, was perhaps the first advocate of index investing and certainly the most influential:  the premise that if one believed that American Business, taken as a whole, would succeed over the long run, the results of low-cost index funds that tracked the financial markets’ performance would over time exceed the performance of virtually all managers of actively traded mutual funds and financial advisors.  (Vanguard’s S&P 500 Index Fund remains the organization’s flagship fund.) 

Messrs. Bogle and Buffett weren’t our original financial advisors.  Around 1990, feeling out of our depth and aware that we needed to begin investing, we employed a financial advisor recommended to us by friends.  However, by 1995, I had decided that although our advisor certainly wished us to prosper, he was necessarily seeking to serve two masters – his financial services organization [which offered actively-managed mutual funds with front-end loads (sales charges)] and us.  [Many of us will recall the Lord’s observation that no one can serve two masters (Matt 6:24), although He was admittedly speaking in a somewhat different context. 😉]  I decided to take the time to learn the barebones of the investment field so I could better assess our advisor’s performance.  Once I started concentrating on it, the overwhelmingly most practical and understandable advice I received in those formative years was provided by Wall Street Journal Personal Finance Columnist Jonathan Clements.  For years I kept a notebook filled with Mr. Clements’ late 1990s “Getting Going” columns.  It was through his reporting that I became acquainted with the efforts and theories of Mr. Bogle.  In pieces that ran during the years I was most actively developing my investment notions, Mr. Clements cited statistics demonstrating that Mr. Bogle’s theories were correct:  (1) active fund managers’ and active individual investors’ costs were consistently significantly higher than index funds while at the same time they consistently trailed the index funds’ performance; and (2) that if one was willing to devote the effort, one could effectively “do it yourself” through a big fund house like Vanguard (Vanguard was not the only option), which provided excellent service, indexing acumen, and a wide variety of no-load, low-operating cost index funds.  Mr. Clements also noted data that refuted active fund managers’ claim that their efforts better mitigated losses in “down markets” than index funds.  He preached (this, again, was the 1990s) that medical statistics were beginning to indicate that one should plan on living longer than retirement analysts were then projecting and that one should spend, if not sparingly, at least not profligately – and invest the savings.

I was hooked.  Here was a simple approach, apparently statistically sound, that an untutored guy like me could use to seek financial security over the long run while keeping his costs down:  embracing the notion that one would never “win big” in the market by picking an individual stock like Amazon but, if one believed in the long term success of American Business, facilitate reasonable financial growth while hopefully limiting the chances of “losing big” by spreading one’s risk over hundreds or thousands of stocks.  It is an approach that we have generally maintained over the last three decades – through the “Dot.Com Bust,” the Great Recession, and the brief but precipitous COVID crash — while in the initial years gently weaning ourselves from our advisor and the actively-managed funds in which we had been invested.

Sadly, Mr. Clements himself didn’t get the long life he advised his readers to plan for.  He died of cancer on September 21st at the age of 62.  (When reading his columns, I intuitively sensed he was a young man, but didn’t realize that he was then in his early 30s, a full decade younger than we were.)  Because of the impact he had on our financial life, I felt a true pang at his passing, and consider it appropriate to mark it in these pages. 

So where does Mr. Buffett come in?  He was a close friend of Mr. Bogle’s and is, of course, the world’s most accomplished and acclaimed investor – whom I am sure Mr. Bogle would have acknowledged was the exception to Mr. Bogle’s rule.  (If there was an unstated core to Messrs. Bogle’s and Clements’ advice, it was:  “There is only one Warren Buffett, and you ain’t him.”)  Even so, in his 2014 letter to his Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Mr. Buffett, given his record and renown, provided perhaps the best endorsement for the approach espoused by Messrs. Bogle and Clements, I suspect then sending shockwaves through the financial advising community:

“If wise, [most investors] will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power.  I have good news for these non-professionals.  … [Their] goal … should not be to pick winners – neither [the individual investor] nor his helpers can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well.  A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal. …  [B]oth individuals and institutions will constantly be urged to be active by those who profit from giving advice or effecting transactions. … So ignore the chatter, keep your costs minimal, and invest in stocks as you would in a farm.  My money, I should add, is where my mouth is:  What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. … My advice to the trustee could not be more simple:  Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.  (I suggest Vanguard’s.)  I believe that the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers.”

Many of those who follow these pages are either in or close to retirement, and their investment approaches are probably already pretty well cast.  However, for those at the beginning or middle of their careers, I recommend buying one of Mr. Clements’ books and absorbing his insights.  (Since I read Mr. Clements “real time,” I never bought any of his books; in a recent quick internet search, I did note one title, The Best of Jonathan Clements, that I might first consider if intending to buy one of his volumes.)  Even if one is more comfortable maintaining a relationship with a financial advisor, Mr. Clements’ notions might offer you another perspective that will better enable you to assess your financial advisor’s approach and performance.

In reflecting on Mr. Clements’ passing, I have come to realize that my laconic response to financial advisors’ inquiries over the years has been grossly derelict.  When I am next approached by a financial organization or advisor seeking to provide me with investment advice (“when,” not “if,” I am approached – such organizations and advisors are ubiquitous), I will and forever after amend my response to indicate that I already have the best advisors that anyone could ask for:  John Bogle, Warren Buffett … and Jonathan Clements.

Congratulations to the Brewers

Although their pace slowed a bit in the last month of the season, as all who care are aware, the Milwaukee Brewers managed to maintain the top seed in this year’s National League playoff structure with the best record in Major League Baseball.  A little later today, they host the Chicago Cubs in the first game of the second round of the National League playoffs.  Preoccupied with the toxic state of our political environment, I haven’t seen an inning of Brewer baseball this season.  Since old baseball fans are as superstitious as old baseball players, I don’t intend to start watching now.  I venture no opinion as to how they’ll fare against superstar-laden, heavy-payrolled clubs in the playoffs.  That said – and being well aware that more than a few diehard Cub fans read these notes – I think every baseball fan can agree that given its relatively limited resources, the Brewers’ performance this year has been mighty impressive.  I don’t expect to add anything further here about Milwaukee’s fortunes unless the Brewers reach the World Series, and I will find it completely charming if they do.  (But then I certainly won’t watch 😊).

Go Crew.

On a Prospective Government Shutdown; the Comey Indictment

As all who care are aware, the federal government will shut down on October 1 unless Congress passes the appropriate funding measures.  The first time the government faced such a deadline during President Donald Trump’s second term, a sufficient number of Democratic Senators, led by Senate Minority Leader U.S. NY Sen. Chuck Schumer – to the extreme irritation of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party — supported Republican, Administration-supported measures to keep the government open.  (I agreed with Sen. Schumer.)  Now, understandably even further inflamed by Administration policies that are increasingly autocratic and clearly favor the interests of the well-to-do over the impoverished, and frustrated with their own glaring political impotence, many on the left are urging that unless the Administration provides certain concessions to Democrats (which I understand primarily involve ensuring against the loss or maintaining the continued affordability of health care for millions of Americans of lesser means), Senate Democrats should withhold the votes needed to continue to fund the government, thus forcing a shutdown.

All who read any of these notes are well aware that I am appalled by the Administration’s priorities and terrified by the direction our country is heading.  While I acknowledge that Democrats’ choice has moral as well as policy dimensions, I nevertheless submit that causing a government stoppage would be an egregious political blunder for Democrats.  Correct me if I’m mistaken, but the next time that Americans ultimately blame a government shutdown on the party in power … will be the first time.  In these sorts of conflicts, the MAGAs have proven to be as savvy as they are ruthless.  They don’t care if the government shuts down.  One can easily anticipate that the Trump Administration will continue to pay federal debts, military defense costs, and immigration enforcement expenses, while laying off federal workers, trimming support for state services, Social Security benefits, Medicare reimbursements, and FEMA (remember, we’re in hurricane season).  Timing is everything.  The dangers to Americans’ health care costs that Democrats are seeking to avoid won’t meaningfully occur for months.  On the other hand, how long will it take for those being laid off or on Mainstreet America to decide that Democrats are to blame for the jobs, benefits and services they’re losing now?

I’ll take this one:  Democrats might be able to hold favorable public sentiment for about a week if they were skillful publicists.  Unfortunately, Mr. Schumer and House Minority Leader U.S. NY Rep. Hakeem Jeffries couldn’t rally a class of kindergarteners to an ice cream stand.  Democrats are seemingly expecting centrist voters, some of whom clearly either couldn’t discern or forgot that Mr. Trump incited an insurrection, ignored Mr. Trump’s 34 felony convictions, presumably believed that Mr. Trump would lower inflation while imposing tariffs, and were apparently confident that Mr. Trump would conclude the Russian/Ukrainian and Israeli/Hamas conflicts in one day, to look beyond the ends of their noses and grasp Democrats’ nuanced justification for bringing about a shutdown.  I give the Democrats three days before they are publicly overrun by MAGA propaganda.  The fact that Mr. Trump and Republican Congressional Leadership cancelled a negotiation session with Congressional Democrats scheduled for this week indicates that they agree with me.

I consider the October, 1974 Heavyweight Championship Title Bout between Champion George Foreman and Challenger Muhammad Ali to aptly fit the Democrats’ current situation.  In the fight’s early rounds, Mr. Ali, the heavy underdog then well past his prime, let the younger, at that point stronger and more able Mr. Foreman punch himself out in the African heat before coming back to knock Mr. Foreman out.  Mr. Ali understood that he had to absorb the punishment until the time was right to respond.  If Mr. Ali had come out swinging too early, he would have lost.

The only way to win back America is to win at the ballot box.  With all the obstructions I expect that MAGAs will institute to free and fair voting in 2026 and 2028, achieving electoral victory is going to be hard enough.  Although it may be natural to focus on the 2028 presidential election, the Administration has moved so quickly to install an American Apartheid that the democratic aspirations of those who oppose its efforts may rest on Democrats’ ability to secure control of Congress in 2026.  While premature gallant gestures will make some feel good, I would submit that Democrats cannot provide MAGAs with any pretexts that will enable them to shift blame for Americans’ difficulties elsewhere.  I fear that progressives and liberals are living in their own delusional bubble as to how “the people” will ultimately attribute responsibility for the impending government stoppage.  The time still isn’t right for a showdown.  The one positive that could result from millions of Americans being callously deprived of their health care in 2026 is that no one – not even MAGAs – will blame Democrats.  Democrats are so viscerally associated, across the political spectrum, with efforts to expand American health care that the coverage losses and degradations credibly predicted to occur in 2026 will be rightly blamed on the Trump Administration.  If Democrats prematurely distract and inflame members of potentially decisive voter segments who may be having qualms about Mr. Trump’s leadership by forcing a government shutdown now, they may make their path to a 2026 electoral victory even harder than it already will be.

But what about the Comey indictment, you ask?  I just added this reference to former FBI Director James Comey’s indictment yesterday to this previously-scheduled note to show you that I was still awake.  While it remains important to note that the Administration was able to obtain an indictment from a panel of citizens who believed that there was probable cause, based upon the evidence presented to them by the Administration, that Mr. Comey had committed the crime for which he is charged, it is beyond any doubt that the United States Department of Justice is prosecuting Mr. Comey at President Donald Trump’s instruction because Mr. Trump hates him.  The Administration’s action provides as clear a basis as we’ve had to date for the autocratic dangers I alluded to above.  Frankly, although you have enough to worry about with your own psyche without hearing about mine, what surprised me most about the news of Mr. Comey’s indictment was that I received it with such equanimity.  Then, I understood:  the day this man was reelected, I knew what was going to happen.  I already knew.     

On Campaign Finance

“The laws which I shall promulgate will not be complete in detail (that would be an endless task), but will present the gist and sense of the provisions.”

  • Roman Statesman and Philosopher Marcus Tullius Cicero; The Laws

Over much of the last year, these pages have focused primarily on the threat to our republic presented by President Donald Trump and his MAGA acolytes.  While the Trump Administration has moved even more quickly than I anticipated to establish an American Apartheid, in this note and at times in the future, I intend to venture sentiments as to how we might address various issues I consider of concern to the future of our nation – whether or not there is any realistic possibility of their being enacted.  (The one addressed here would, given the Supreme Court’s decision, Citizens United v Federal Election Commission, require a Constitutional Amendment or a reconstituted Court.)  There may be points at which the suggestions I offer in one of these notes might be inconsistent with what I express in another; in a nation as complex as ours, there are always competing valid interests in need of reconciliation.  In these posts, I am going to try to follow the counsel of Cicero, and set forth a “gist and sense” of direction on an issue without delving into detail.  (We’ll see how well I succeed. 😉 )

“In order to achieve the widest possible distribution of political power, financial contributions to political campaigns should be made by individuals, and individuals alone.  I see no reason for labor unions – or corporations – to participate in politics. [Emphasis in Original]”

  • The late U.S. AZ Sen. Barry Goldwater; The Conscience of a Conservative

Mr. Goldwater’s book, published in 1960, was the first book I reread after I retired.  Whether or not one agreed with him on all issues, he was a straight-talking, no-nonsense traditional conservative, not the MAGA variety.  Since our nation, assisted by a Republican-dominated Supreme Court, has gone in the opposite direction from that urged by Mr. Goldwater 65 years ago, we are confronted – as he in effect suggested we would be – with a concentration of political power in few hands.  The premise that money is speech is absurd.

I would suggest that our body politic would be better served by the following rules:

  • Only natural persons can contribute to political campaigns.  (No corporations, no labor unions, no centralized political parties, no Political Action Committees, etc., etc., etc.)
  • A natural person can only contribute to the campaign of a candidate for whom s/he can vote.  (This would eliminate the flood of money into state and local races by outside influences.)
  • A natural person can only contribute to one candidate in a campaign.  (Limiting the ability to curry influence with both sides.)
  • A natural person’s contribution limit is $3,500 per campaign, adjusted annually for inflation.
  • A candidate and the candidate’s spouse can contribute up to $50,000 to the candidate’s campaign.
  • Any campaign contributions a candidate retains at the end of his/her campaign (i.e., either as of election day or the day the candidate end/ceases active campaigning, whether or not the candidate formally ends or suspends his/her campaign) must be refunded on a pro-rata basis to the contributors (with appropriate sums from the cache deducted to pay the cost of returning the refunds).
  • It shall be illegal for any person to give money to or receive money from another person with the intent that the recipient will contribute the gift to a candidate’s campaign.
  • It shall be illegal for any person or organization to influence a natural person to contribute to any campaign.
  • It shall be illegal for any organization to fund or publish works explicitly or impliedly endorsing or criticizing any candidate or political party.

I have undoubtedly missed points that have occurred to you; there are certainly loopholes in what has been suggested; but you get the “gist and sense.”  These notions may only be a start; but I would submit that instituting them would put us in a better position than we are now.  Feel free to add any suggestions — or indicate why you feel what is set forth here is entirely misguided Noise 😊.

Stay well.  

Jimmy Kimmel

You can write this post; you don’t need me.  A couple of observations to support yours:

First, consider again ABC Late Night Host Jimmy Kimmel’s comments on Monday night regarding the assassination of MAGA Activist Charlie Kirk – comments I understand that Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr thereafter called the “sickest possible,” and suggested could cause the FCC to revoke ABC affiliate licenses — which seemingly resulted in Mr. Kimmel’s suspension:

“The MAGA gang [is] desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it.  In between the finger pointing, there was grieving.”

Any humor there?  No.  Arguably in poor taste?  Sure.  But as political commentary, Mr. Kimmel’s remarks seem to me remarkably benign.  The first half of his first sentence — if that’s all there was — has all the earmarks of having been torturously approved by an angst-ridden lawyer (who, if so, may well have also lost his/her job), and doesn’t allege that Mr. Kirk’s murderer was a MAGA adherent.  The remainder of Mr. Kimmel’s comments — given what we’ve seen spewed from President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, Attorney General Pam Bondi, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller since Mr. Kirk’s murder – is certainly tenable.

Second, not to be overlooked in the hubbub, is a social media post by Mr. Trump after Mr. Kimmel’s suspension, which declared in part:

“Kimmel has ZERO talent and worse ratings than even Colbert, if that’s possible.  That leaves Jimmy and Seth, two total losers, on Fake News NBC.  Their ratings are also horrible.  Do it NBC!!!  President DJT” [Capitalization of ZERO by Mr. Trump; italics added].

I could remark on the obviously ominous relentless nature of that declaration, but won’t.  After all, you’re writing this one.