On 2024 Presidential Campaign Strategies: Part II

[Caution:  this Part II has become interminably long, such that it might — like liver, lutefisk, or lima beans — be best digested in small servings  😉 ]

Mr. Biden.  In the first part of this note, I suggested the strategies that former President Donald Trump might execute to (legally and validly) recapture the presidency; those that seem to me most suitable for Mr. Biden are many and more varied.  What is of great concern to me is that although the President and his team may recognize all of the eight steps set forth below, they don’t appear to be applying what I consider to be the appropriate respective emphasis on each.  From least important to most important:

Eighth — solicit the highly confidential agreement of specific prominent Republican surrogates to publicly support Mr. Biden (or, at a minimum, disown Mr. Trump) when the time is right.  It would be understood that any such understandings would only apply if Mr. Trump wins the Republican nomination.  As in 2020, the presidential election will be won or lost in the Republican suburbs of the major urban centers in the swing states.  The most important Republican surrogates to be solicited would be former President George W. Bush and former U.S. WY Rep. Liz Cheney.  These two arguably retain credibility with conservative independents and moderate Republicans.  (If Mr. Bush is as patriotic as he’s always claimed to be, it’s time for him to come out of his corner.)  The message these surrogates might express to this pivotal suburban segment would be simple:  “I don’t agree with President Biden on most domestic issues, but Trump is a danger to our republic.  I will not vote for Trump.  Given our choice in 2024, I’m going to vote for Mr. Biden, and I encourage you to follow me.  Now is the time to save our democratic way of life.  After this election, we can rebuild the Republican Party and start countering Democratic excesses with the right presidential candidate in 2028.”      

Seventh — trumpet the Administration’s accomplishments.  They are many, and impressive.  It doesn’t matter.  Mr. Biden should expend relatively lesser effort in this regard.  Those that appreciate what he’s achieved are already going to vote for him.  He will never convince brainwashed consumers of alt-right media that he’s done a good job.  [An August CBS/YouGov poll indicated that Mr. Trump’s supporters believe Mr. Trump more than their own family members (although, hopefully, not more than their mothers 🙂 )].  This is where the President’s good nature and his faith in the good sense of the vast majority of American electorate is dangerous.  I find it disconcerting that this seems to be the strategy that he and his team wish to emphasize.

Sixth – pray that the economy continues on a glide path to a “soft landing” without recession – i.e., that America’s unemployment rate remains low while inflation and interest rates decline.  From a political perspective, perception of the economy trumps statistics.  (Recall that former President Bill Clinton bested former President George H. W. Bush in 1992 in large part by arguing that he would be better than Mr. Bush at bringing America out of its recession; economists later determined that the recession Mr. Clinton decried concluded before Election Day in 1992.)  I’m not sure that a good economy helps Mr. Biden, but a bad economy certainly hurts him.  Right now, voters are understandably focusing on inflation, particularly gas and food prices, and interest rates.  Mr. Biden might be able to make a wedge issue out of high gas prices if the Saudis and the Russians attempt to jack oil prices in too obvious a bid to help Mr. Trump’s re-election, but speaking for those of us of different faiths who believe in the power of prayer, there may be relatively little Mr. Biden can do with regard to the economy except pray.

Fifth — make Vice President Kamala Harris the on-site leader of FEMA’s effort to rebuild Maui and Puerto Rico (still struggling after Hurricanes Irma and Maria) – and then cut all communications from those islands back to the mainland.  This is, of course, facetious, and not intended in any way to make light of the catastrophic loss that our people in these areas are suffering; it is to make the point that the relatively unfavorable public perception of Ms. Harris’ abilities hasn’t improved during the Biden Years (from which one might infer that the President doesn’t think any more highly of her qualifications than the general public; although in fairness, if he does believe she is of presidential timber, he’s given her no real opportunity to prove it).  Recently, MSNBC’s Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough dismissed concerns that Ms. Harris might be a drag on Mr. Biden’s re-election prospects by declaring to the effect, “No one votes in a presidential election based upon the vice presidential candidates.”  Perhaps true (there have been a few presidential races in this century that might make one wonder); but nobody’s ever been asked to vote for an 82-year-old presidential candidate before, either.  Speaking in rankest political terms, the Vice President was an asset in 2020 in the wake of George Floyd’s murder but is now, fairly or unfairly, a political millstone for an aged President that he cannot jettison for fear of offending his constituency of color.  He must keep her out of sight except for safe stops in heavily progressive areas.

Fourth – To the extent he can – recognizing that there are significant limits to what he can do in this regard in this media age — Mr. Biden needs to restrict his movement in front of video cameras as zealously and as effectively as he compensates for his stutter.  Four score and seven years ago (yes, really; you can do the math 😉 ), Americans first re-elected a president they were completely unaware couldn’t walk; today — in perhaps the most patently obvious statement ever entered in these pages — visuals count.  Although one of my dictionaries defines “doddering” as “feeble-minded from age,” the majority define the word entirely in terms of movement, such as:  “Moving in a feeble or unsteady way, especially because of old age.”  It is obvious that Mr. Biden “dodders” in the physical sense.  Recently, he hosted a Camp David summit with the leaders of Japan and South Korea – nations with traditionally deep acrimony toward each other, but brought together by the President’s cajoling about their overriding concerns about China.  It was a foreign policy tour de force by Mr. Biden.  But what we saw as the President greeted his allies was a man clearly unsteady on his feet between two younger, more physically assured men.  That was the visceral impression even I was left with, although because of my interest in foreign policy I probably appreciated more than the average voter the mental dexterity it had required to bring the summit about.  I would supplement the conscious effort to limit Mr. Biden’s movement in front of cameras with ads containing video depicting him moving with assurance (he does at times) and flashing still pictures of him doing his job at a pace that leaves the viewer with the impression of movement.

Third – stick to the knitting.  Winning the presidency is about winning 270 Electoral College (“EC”) votes.  You don’t get to stay if you get less; they don’t let you stay longer if you get more.  Recall that Mr. Biden entered the 2020 race with the avowed strategy of retaining all of the EC votes that former U.S. Secretary of State and 2016 Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton had won in 2016, and adding the EC votes of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – states Ms. Clinton had been expected to win, but had lost.  He succeeded in that endeavor, while surprisingly (at least to me) winning Arizona and Georgia as well.  These latter two states gave Mr. Biden some breathing room against Mr. Trump’s subsequent seditious lies about election integrity, but weren’t numerically necessary to win the White House.  Mr. Biden and his team need to focus their efforts on the swing states they are most likely to win, and on the electoral segments within those states from which they need significant margins.  Mr. Biden is perhaps our last American politician whom most voters find generally likeable even if they question his vitality, but he doesn’t inspire excitement.  I was more than a little unnerved to recently hear a young black woman express disappointment with Mr. Biden’s performance in the PBS NewsHour series, “America at a Crossroads.”  If the African American community doesn’t enthusiastically support Mr. Biden in 2024, he will lose.  The Biden Campaign needs to employ effective surrogates among its core constituencies to get out the vote.  Former President Barack Obama will help with the African American community (although query whether he has as much credibility with younger as he does with older blacks) and U.S. VT Sen. Bernie Sanders will help with progressives, but the Biden team must find surrogates to effectively stoke enthusiasm among pro-choice, various Latino communities (Latinos are not a monolithic whole), Jewish groups, etc., etc.       

Second – Let MAGAs be MAGAs.  Wisconsin state Republican MAGAs could well seek to impeach a state supreme court justice who was elected by a margin of over 10% to do what they wish to thwart.  In Tennessee, MAGAs seemingly continue to try to freeze out certain black legislators for no reason other than that they’re black and they have the temerity to “talk back.”  U.S. AL Sen. Tommy Tuberville will seemingly continue in his quest to block military promotions over cultural issues.  As this is posted, it appears that Congressional MAGAs will force a government shutdown over the budget.  Inevitably, Congressional MAGAs will seek to limit funding to Ukraine.  Congressional MAGAs are starting an impeachment inquiry into Mr. Biden seemingly without appreciable evidence although he will never be convicted in the Senate and despite the fact that both Mr. Clinton’s and Mr. Trump’s approval ratings went up after they were impeached.  (They say that no president wants to be impeached; while I can see where Mr. Biden would prefer to avoid the distraction such a proceeding would entail, if he indeed did not use his Vice Presidential office to favor his son, he should welcome an impeachment effort from a political standpoint.)  I can’t even imagine all the bizarre ways that MAGAs will act over the next 14 months to pander to their base while alienating all rational voters, so the best thing that Mr. Biden and his team can do in this regard is … get out of their way 🙂 .

First and Foremost – Start pounding Mr. Trump with negative ads now, and keep it up until Election Day.  Those of us with legal backgrounds are well aware of court decisions in which the judge would comment about a legal point:  “It is so well settled that it needs no citation [of supporting authority].”  What is so well settled in the political sphere that it needs no explanation:  Negative Ads Work. The Biden Campaign should stay away from Mr. Trump’s criminal indictments – such emphasis will backfire if he’s acquitted – because they don’t need them.  Show Mr. Trump urging his supporters to go to the Capitol on January 6, 2021, with footage of the ensuing riot.  Show Mr. Trump’s Truth Social post in which he called for the termination of the Constitution with regard to the 2020 presidential election.  Show his comments about pardoning some of the rioters who have been convicted.  Show that he continues to claim that he won in 2020.  Show Mr. Trump’s kind words about Russian President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by footage of the destruction Mr. Putin has wreaked upon Ukraine.  Show his 2016 campaign pledge to appoint judges that would overturn Roe v. Wade – and what his appointments have brought about.  These are simply the first to mind; there is so much material.  Mr. Biden and his team seem focused on reminding voters about what they’ve done; they need to place their overwhelming emphasis on reminding voters what Mr. Trump has done.

One might argue that it would be wise for the Biden Campaign to wait until Mr. Trump secures, in fact if not formally, the Republican nomination before it begins such attacks; what if another Republican wins the nomination?  While such is an understandable concern, I’d take the risk.  The Republican field is too wide, and Mr. Trump’s core support is too strong.  It hasn’t withered – has, indeed, strengthened – in the wake of his many indictments.  The race is about persuading hesitant Democrats, conservative independents and moderate Republicans that Mr. Trump cannot be allowed back in the White House.  Start pounding him now.

Not long ago, I wrote a post in which I stated my strong belief that we need to be alert to and guard against MAGA illiberal machinations related to the 2024 presidential election.  I believe just as strongly that if we exert as much effort to protect our democracy as MAGAs will do to destroy it, we will preserve our way of life; that enough of our conservative independents and moderate Republican citizens will place greater store on safeguarding our republic than on their unease about progressive excesses.  It’s our game to win – but every bit as crucially, it is Mr. Trump’s and MAGAs’ game to lose.  Let them lose it.  Hopefully, Mr. Biden and his team will execute the appropriate strategies to both win the necessary votes and safeguard the integrity of our electoral processes.

To conclude with the only pet saying of Mr. Trump that I genuinely appreciate:  We’ll see what happens.