Ukraine at the Precipice

As all who care are aware, a package to respectively provide billions in aid to Ukraine in its struggle against Russia, to Israel in its struggle against Hamas, and to Taiwan to help shore up its defenses against China is being tied up in a U.S. Senate squabble in which Republicans are insisting upon changes to American border security policy that are apparently an anathema to Democrats.  Last week, several outlets reported that a number of Senate Republicans “stormed out” of a meeting with Senate Democrats because they did not consider Democrats to be taking their border security demands seriously.

Although some – including me — might initially dismiss the Republicans’ opposition as pandering to their base, I took particular note that U.S. UT Sen. Mitt Romney – who is not running for re-election, has unassailable credentials as an opponent of Russian aggression, and is almost certainly not beloved by his caucus colleagues after his votes to convict former President Trump in both his impeachment trials and given the revelations in Mr. Romney’s book, Romney:  A Reckoning – was among the most incensed by what he viewed as Democrats’ intransigence on border issues.  On December 5, he tweeted:  “Dems want $106B—GOP wants a closed border. That’s the trade. But clueless Dems want to negotiate the border bill. Not going to happen. Is an open border more important to Dems than Ukraine and Israel?”.

I didn’t see it, but The Hill reported Sunday that on NBC News’ Meet the Press, Mr. Romney stated in part:

“It’s not just Republicans that are holding a hard line. It’s Democrats who are holding a hard line. Either side can move and can get this done. …  We have gone from one to 2000 [illegal] encounters at the border a day under … Bush, Obama and Trump [to] … 10 to 12,000 a day.  As Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman said, we’re basically seeing Pittsburgh show up [at] the border every month.”

Mr. Romney is an estimable man.  Given his views, I’m willing to assume that Senate Democrats are being too rigid.

Let’s put Taiwan and Israel aside for purposes of this note; at this moment, it appears unlikely that China’s President Xi Jinping is going to risk further hardening American attitude against China by ordering a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and, as I have previously observed here, it’s pretty clear that Israel has shown little need for our military aid to either defeat Hamas or to lay complete waste to the Gaza Strip. 

On the other hand, there appears to be consensus that Ukraine is about out of money, and without our military and economic aid, Ukraine will fall under Russian domination within the foreseeable future.  I have found the way that at least the electronic news outlets we follow have focused so heavily on the Israel-Hamas conflict since the Hamas attack of October 7, with scant attendant coverage of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion, to be extremely distressing; such emphasis endangers western democracy by causing us to take our eye off the ball — Ukraine.  Business Insider has reported that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia hoped lawmakers would continue to delay the Ukraine aid; The New Republic has reported that a Russian state television commentator has declared, “Well done, Republicans! They’re standing firm! That’s good for us.”

After all their sacrifices, all of the innocent deaths, all of the displacement, and all of the destruction of their homes and their institutions, and the attempted eradication of their nation and their culture by Vladimir Putin, and notwithstanding their Herculean defense of their homeland, without our continued assistance Ukrainians will lose.  Ukraine will disappear – perhaps even in name.  And we diddle and bicker.

I don’t know what the Republicans are demanding in the way of different or enhanced border security measures.  Even so, I will submit that if President Biden and Congressional Democrats can get Republicans’ agreement to authorize what the Administration deems to be sufficient aid to get Ukraine through to March, 2025, they should agree to all Republican border demands that don’t include shooting illegal immigrants or separating immigrant children from parents (there may be some other similarly egregious exception I’m overlooking, but you get the idea).  If advising Mr. Biden, I would recommend that he call his old Senate colleague, Senate Minority Leader U.S. KY Sen. Mitch McConnell – who is currently among those holding up Ukraine aid to obtain additional border security, but does support aid for Ukraine — find out from Mr. McConnell exactly what border measures Senate Republicans are demanding in return for supporting Ukraine aid, and then – assuming that there are no Republican conditions as malign as those I listed above — call Senate Majority Leader U.S. NY Sen. Chuck Schumer and strongly advise Mr. Schumer to … Do. The. Deal.

My rationale is pretty basic:  what happens now on the border doesn’t, from a practical standpoint, matter that much.  If Mr. Biden wins in November, 2024, Democrats are likely to control both chambers of Congress; they can then attempt to undo whatever measures are enacted now that they consider too onerous.  If Donald Trump wins the presidency next November, whatever strictures are put into effect now will be but a prelude to what Mr. Trump (with, if he is elected, will likely be a Republican-controlled Congress) will do anyway in 2025.

Although this is of wildly lesser import, I would agree with those who have opined that signing a law with stringent border measures may actually help Mr. Biden politically.  By all accounts, those living near our southern border have reasonable concerns about what appears to be our mishandling of border security (no matter whose fault it actually is, the political reality is that the buck stops at the White House), and even many living in the snowy Midwest find the border an emotive issue.  [I was surprised to find how border security resonated with central Wisconsinites at a Republican Town Hall Meeting we attended a couple of years ago.  Although one could argue that the mid-state Wisconsin resident is only marginally more likely to be harmed by an illegal immigrant than s/he is to be strangled by a Burmese python (which are now reported to be migrating north in Florida, having wiped out the available prey in the Everglades), it doesn’t matter.  Citizens vote on their perceptions.]  If Mr. Biden supports stiffer border controls, he will — unlike the many Republicans who are now hypocritically touting the benefits of the Biden Administration’s Infrastructure Law for their districts, despite that fact that they voted against it – be able to correctly declare that he took serious steps to secure our border.  The Wall Street Journal noted recently that if he does make major immigration concessions to Republicans, the President risks losing support amongst some segments of Democratic voters; I would counter that if/when these disgruntled Democrats recognize that the alternative to a Biden vote is a Trump Restoration, they’ll come around.

I am sickened by the fact that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has to come to Washington this week to plead – to beg – for assistance that we have the wherewithal to provide which will continue to defend his nation while at the same time safeguarding ours.  The Ukrainians can’t afford to wait 13 months until (under the happiest scenario) Mr. Biden has won reelection and Democrats have regained control of Congress.  By then, Russia will have conquered Ukraine and the NATO alliance will, for all intents and purposes, be in shreds.  Mr. Biden’s party controls the Senate, albeit narrowly.  He needs to do virtually anything within his power to secure aid for the Ukrainians now. 

I recognize that this post approaches rant (or perhaps merely exhibits desperation).  Is the Congressional compromise I urge here ugly?  Without doubt.  Essentially acquiescing to blackmail?  Unquestionably.  Domestic Realpolitik?  Certainly.  Necessary to help sustain global democracy?  Seemingly, Yes.