On Nikki Haley:  A Final Postscript

As all who remember are aware, on February 24^th former President Donald Trump defeated former SC Gov. and U.S. U.N. Amb. Nikki Haley in the Republican Presidential primary in Ms. Haley’s home state of South Carolina by a margin of roughly 60%-40%.  It was a prelude to a series of even more impressive (from a percentage standpoint) victories by Mr. Trump over Ms. Haley in the March 5th Super Tuesday Republican primaries, and last week Ms. Haley suspended her campaign.  Still, a couple of findings I heard relating to the now-seemingly-long-ago South Carolina primary results continue to resonate with me.  Although I originally constructed a note that would have covered both – with my comments about Ms. Haley more the afterthought than the focus — I have divided them in attempt to avoid testing your patience and eyesight.  The second impression from the South Carolina primary will be addressed in a subsequent post.

CNN’s South Carolina exit polling found that the vast majority of Palmetto State Trump voters continue to believe, despite all objective evidence to the contrary, that Mr. Trump won the 2020 presidential election.  One is reinforced by one’s understanding and surroundings; clearly, if you and everybody you know believes that Mr. Trump won in 2020, it is difficult for you to grasp that he could lose in 2024.  While in retrospect this belief completely defused what I considered Ms. Haley’s strongest campaign asset against Mr. Trump – the “electability” argument – it also indicated that a notable segment of our voters either lack or continue to be unwilling to use their capacity for critical thought.  Since overall the Republican primary vote count has been down, it’s hard to determine exactly how many voters traditionally considering themselves Republican (as contrasted with rank-and-file MAGAs) actually believe that Mr. Trump won in 2020, but it’s of deep concern for the future of our republic that in the country affording the widest access to accurate information in the world, a quarter to a third of our electorate seemingly remains unable or unwilling to assess and accurately perceive reality.

A final word on Ms. Haley, as she departs the public eye (at least for now).  All reading these pages are aware that I admire her political athleticism.  Some argue that her 2024 campaign might have fared better if she had started attacking Mr. Trump more forcefully earlier; I disagree.  She needed to first navigate through a huge field of challengers; if she had attacked Mr. Trump aggressively at an earlier stage than she did – i.e., before the race became “one on one” — she would have been dismissed as a traitor.  That said, I would submit that she has been a formidable warrior in the defense of our democracy.  Her attacks on Mr. Trump with regard to NATO and Ukraine, his obsequiousness to Russian President Vladimir Putin, his responsibility for scuttling the bipartisan border deal, his disregard for military sacrifice, Republicans’ losing track record in general elections during his political preeminence, and the distractions caused by his court challenges, taken together with her declared “faith in juries” (the reference to the civil jury finding that Mr. Trump sexually assaulted E. Jean Carroll), were respectfully accepted as credible positions in rightwing media outlets while she was perceived to be seeking the Republican presidential nomination in good faith; similar future claims by President Joe Biden and his surrogates will neither be aired nor heeded by such outlets.  In an election where every vote will count, Ms. Haley weakened Mr. Trump during the last couple of months. 

Will Ms. Haley be a viable presidential candidate in four years if President Joe Biden wins reelection?  (Put aside the fact that if Mr. Trump wins, there won’t be an election – at least a genuine election — in four years.)  In normal times, a charismatic Republican candidate would be favored to win the White House after eight years of a Democratic administration, and in normal times a party seeks to correct the strategies which caused its defeat in the preceding election.  I fear that Mr. Trump has so contaminated the Republican Party apparatus and its adherents that these are not normal times.  Ms. Haley may be caught politically between a rock and a hard place; it’s hard to see her winning the presidential nomination of such a tribalistic organization in four years if she doesn’t endorse Mr. Trump, but even if she does endorse Mr. Trump, she is now considered a pariah by a wide swath of the Republican base.  Even so, if counseling her, I would advise that she not endorse Mr. Trump – that she should perhaps spend much of the coming months traveling internationally away from the American media, burnishing her foreign policy credentials (I suspect that she would be received warmly in a number of NATO nations).  If in the wake of a Trump defeat she runs in 2028 as a traditional Republican and is successful in corralling all of the non-MAGA vote in the early primaries against a field of Trump Wannabes (none of whom yet on the scene possessing the former President’s animal charisma) who split the MAGA vote, she might be able to build momentum in a narrow lane in the same manner as Candidates Jimmy Carter did against more liberal Democratic presidential candidates in 1976 and Donald Trump did against the traditional Republican presidential candidates in 2016.  An extreme long shot, almost akin to a hole in one?  Clearly.  Still, it’s too early to tell.

Right now, we have to win this presidential election.  Let us hope – indeed, let those of us who believe in the power of prayer, pray – that the segment of Americans unable or unwilling to assess and accept reality is closer to a quarter than a third of our citizenry.