On the Republican Vice Presidential Nomination

Now that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have secured, de facto if not de jure, their respective parties’ presidential nominations, there is only one more spot to be filled on the lineup card.  Mr. Trump’s most important tactical decision is now squarely presented:  whom to select as his Vice Presidential running mate to influence the uncommitted voters who currently are, upon reflection, arguably more likely to lean against him and toward Mr. Biden.

In a note last September, speaking of Mr. Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, I observed, “Recently, MSNBC’s Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough dismissed concerns that Ms. Harris might be a drag on Mr. Biden’s re-election prospects by declaring to the effect, ‘No one votes in a presidential election based upon the vice presidential candidates.’  Perhaps true (there have been a few presidential races in this century that might make one wonder); but nobody’s ever been asked to vote for an 82-year-old presidential candidate before, either.”

I can think of four presidential elections in my lifetime in which the presidential nominee’s pick did perhaps swing the election:  John Kennedy’s 1960 selection of Lyndon Johnson won Mr. Kennedy Texas, and helped him claim the electoral votes of southern states already trending away from predominant Democratic Party positions (five southern-tier states won by Mr. Kennedy in 1960 were won by Richard Nixon or George Wallace in 1968); George W. Bush’s 2000 selection of Richard Cheney perhaps reassured a decisive number of undecided swing state voters that although Mr. Bush clearly had less national experience than Vice President Al Gore, Mr. Bush would have a seasoned hand at his side (a notion that in retrospect, was more than a bit ironic 😉 ); Mr. Trump’s 2016 selection of Mike Pence very likely reassured a decisive segment of traditional Republicans in swing states’ major cities’ suburbs that Mr. Pence would stop Mr. Trump from doing anything too crazy (arguably, Mr. Pence did ultimately fulfill those expectations, although it took him until the last out in the bottom of the ninth inning to do so); and Mr. Biden’s 2020 selection of Ms. Harris in the wake of George Floyd’s murder may have cemented his support among women and people of color sufficiently for him to squeak out a narrow victory in the key swing states.

Since the presidential candidates’ age and mental acuity is clearly going to be a key factor in the 2024 campaign, who holds the second spot on the parties’ respective tickets could be decisive.  Elections are about matchups.  I expect that any Vice Presidential debate this fall will garner ratings almost on a par with the presidential debates.

On the Democrats’ side, Ms. Harris is now clearly baked in.  My misgivings about Ms. Harris don’t need to be repeated here.  We are where we are.

As for Mr. Trump:  While he demands absolute supplication from his acolytes, I am confident that he is also acutely aware that he’s going to need a difference-maker as his running mate – someone who will have appeal beyond his base.  Let’s consider three potential choices here.

First:  U.S. AL Sen. Katie Britt.  Mr. Trump may be fascist and delusional — I have seen reports that he spent part of the Easter Holiday reposting others’ comparisons of him to the Lord — but he’s not stupid.  Ms. Britt’s response to President Biden’s State of the Union Address was so awful that it left even alt-right media hawkers gasping for air.  Scarlett Johansson’s subsequent skit on NBC’s Saturday Night Live, spoofing Ms. Britt, was the most devastating political caricature since Tina Fey’s 2008 impersonation of former Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Sarah Palin.  Mr. Trump is not going to pick a running who will be a running SNL punch line and not match Ms. Harris in either maturity or experience in any Vice Presidential debate.  Ms. Britt would turn Ms. Harris from a Biden vulnerability into a Biden asset.   

Second:  U.S. NY Rep. Elise Stefanik, about 40.  Ms. Stefanik was elected to the House in 2014.  Initially elected as a moderate conservative, over her time in the House Ms. Stefanik has morphed into full frontal MAGA, is now fourth in House Republican leadership, and is a rabid defender of Mr. Trump.  I think it can fairly be said that she is blatantly campaigning for a spot on Mr. Trump’s ticket.  They are frequently photographed together.

Mr. Trump is fond of Ms. Stefanik, but she would seemingly bring little to the ticket. She will appeal to the MAGA base, but he already has the MAGA base.  She’s young, but might appear to be too young.  She might appeal to some women, but we already have a female Vice President.  She’s from New York State, which he’s going to lose whether he picks her or not.  She’s a U.S. Representative, and I thought I saw a poll recently indicating that U.S. House representatives are even less popular than either Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump.  I suspect that Mr. Trump will conclude that, like Ms. Britt, Ms. Stefanik will appear the neophyte in any debate with Ms. Harris.

Third:  U.S. SC Sen. Tim Scott, 58.  As all who care are aware, Mr. Scott is African American, comes from very humble beginnings, and preaches a version of individualism that appeals across the Republican spectrum.  Although his 2024 Republican presidential candidacy went nowhere, he got some recognition on the national stage.  His views generally dovetail with Mr. Trump’s.  He favors cutting taxes.  He opposes the Paris Climate Change Accords.  He opposes same-sex marriage.  He unequivocally opposes women’s abortion rights.  (I was surprised by his ringing denunciation of abortion rights during the Republican candidate debates; even Mr. Trump is trying to backtrack a bit here.)  His support of Ukraine is, at best, tempered.  Most vitally:  he has enthusiastically endorsed Mr. Trump for President.  [During Mr. Trump’s victory speech following the Republican New Hampshire primary, the Senator stood immediately behind Mr. Trump, mugging for the camera (which could not have occurred without Mr. Trump’s approval) and actually declared that he “loved” Mr. Trump during the event.] 

It’s hard not to see Mr. Trump going with Mr. Scott.  Mr. Scott, as a South Carolinian, would provide an electoral boost to Mr. Trump in the purportedly swing states of Georgia and North Carolina.  While in choosing Mr. Scott, Mr. Trump would face some risk of alienating his racist followers, their support of the former president has been so steadfast for so long that there is arguably greater potential that Mr. Scott’s selection will dent Mr. Biden’s support among African American males – who may be disgruntled by what they perceive as shortcomings in the President’s performance, and who polls consistently show are culturally conservative on most issues except race — in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Mr. Scott presents as strong and competent.  Except for his political vulnerability on abortion, I think Mr. Scott would be a strong matchup against Ms. Harris in the Vice Presidential debate.

In the coming months, the names of Mr. Scott and Ms. Stefanik, along with a number of others (but probably no longer Ms. Britt  😉 ), will be bandied about as Mr. Trump’s potential choices for running mate.  Reverting to the only pet saying of Mr. Trump’s of which I’m fond:  We’ll see what happens.