[Noise Alert: this breaks this site’s general rule of not publishing a post on the day it is written, and may be the most depressing note ever entered in these pages. Feel free to pass it.]
So – it turns out that I was wrong. The Vice President of the United States isn’t following the Noise. Apparently, it only becomes compulsory reading when one ascends to the Oval Office (and even then, only for those Presidents who are actually willing to read 😉 ).
Nothing will be said here against MN Gov. Tim Walz, whom Presumptive Democratic Presidential Nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has chosen to be her Vice Presidential running mate, personally. Every time I have seen Mr. Walz interviewed, I have been struck by his ability to articulate, his command of the issues, and his down-home, midwestern friendly folksiness, but – and there will literally be NOTHING I EVER enter in these pages for which I will more fervently hope to be proven wrong – I fear Ms. Harris’ selection will ultimately prove to be a critical factor contributing to an Electoral College victory for former President Donald Trump in November.
Mr. Walz reminds me of U.S. VA Sen. Tim Kaine, selected as running mate by former Democratic Presidential Nominee, U.S. Sec. of State, U.S. NY Sen. and First Lady Hillary Clinton in 2016. Mr. Kaine (still in the Senate) is an able guy and a nice guy who I think – had he been at the top of the 2016 Democratic ticket – might well have beaten Mr. Trump in 2016. He wasn’t. If Mr. Walz was the Democratic Presidential nominee, I’d like his chances against Mr. Trump.
He’s isn’t. Ms. Harris is. She needed every edge she could get in what had promised to be a razor-close race against Mr. Trump. She’s already being painted by the Trump forces as a Wacko Woke Progressive – a label that MAGAs could never effectively pin on President Joe Biden, but will be effective against Ms. Harris (I know; she was a prosecutor. Doesn’t matter. Swing state voters are well aware that she’s from California – which is Latin in the rest of the country for, “Wacko Woke Progressive.”) If Mr. Walz is as progressive as he has been described in the media, he will, no matter his every-man style, have given MAGAs, thus far floundering with misogynist and racist attacks against Ms. Harris, a politically-acceptable wedge with mostly suburban moderate swing state swing voters: that the Democrats are too left, during a campaign in which Ms. Harris needs to convince them that she’s safer Mr. Trump – i.e., that she will govern in a steady, centrist manner despite MAGAs’ claims to the contrary.
I have seen media reports that PA Gov. Josh Shapiro was the early front-runner in Ms. Harris’ selection process, but that Gov. Shapiro’s staunch pro-Israel stance in the current Israeli-Hamas conflict created concerted and vehement opposition to his selection in Democratic Party progressive ranks. One cannot know for sure why Mr. Shapiro was passed over; perhaps there is an unreported factor in his background that Ms. Harris and her advisors feared would ultimately harm the campaign if it came to light; but if she actually turned away from Mr. Shapiro – who has governed as a centrist, and is very popular in the one Electoral College state Ms. Harris most probably needs to win to claim the presidency – because of progressive opposition, she’s a fool, and perhaps warrants the questions regarding her competence that have been circling her since she announced her presidential candidacy in 2020. Does she really fear that progressives and the young wouldn’t vote for her – a charismatic black woman — or vote for Donald Trump, because of Mr. Shapiro’s views on the Israeli-Hamas war? She is the one who would be president, and she has made clear her own reservations about the unrestrained manner in which Israel has prosecuted its war against Hamas and concern for the thousands of Palestinian civilians arguably unnecessarily killed or injured as a result. The progressive Democratic constituencies would have still come out for her despite their concerns about Mr. Shapiro’s Israel-Hamas stand – and Mr. Shapiro would have given her a real chance to claim the one swing state she seemingly can’t afford to lose.
The historical reference is obvious (one can’t have a Noise post without a historical reference 🙂 ). Then-U.S. MA Sen. John Kennedy horrified liberals when he picked then-Senate Majority Leader U.S. TX Sen. Lyndon Johnson as his running mate in 1960 (reportedly, Robert Kennedy was shocked at his brother’s decision, and argued vehemently against it). Sen. Kennedy knew better – knew that the liberals would swallow their gripes when the opposition was the detested Richard Nixon – and that he might need Texas’ Electoral College votes to win the presidency. [If one looks at the 1960 Electoral College totals, it looks as though he didn’t – until one realizes that had Mr. Kennedy not swept the entire South (already uncomfortable with northern liberalism and getting over its hatred of Republicans dating back to Abraham Lincoln, and which ultimately turned decisively Republican eight years later) – he would have lost]. By selecting Mr. Johnson and making liberals abide it, Mr. Kennedy made it clear that he, not they, was in charge. By her passing over Mr. Shapiro, Ms. Harris appears progressives’ captive rather than their master.
If Ms. Harris couldn’t win Minnesota’s Electoral College votes without Mr. Walz on the ticket, she wasn’t going to win the presidency. How do you think the Pennsylvania Democratic Party apparatus, undoubtedly very dedicated to Mr. Shapiro, is feeling about Ms. Harris today? Enthused, or deflated?
I have been told that Gov. Shapiro has announced that he will campaign vigorously for the Harris–Walz ticket. Of course he will. One final and arguably apt reference to John F. Kennedy: after being passed over by a whisker for the Vice Presidential nomination in 1956, he gave a ringing speech at the 1956 Democratic Convention on behalf of the Party’s nominees, Adlai Stevenson and Estes Kefauver — who were never going to beat President Dwight Eisenhower and his Vice President, Mr. Nixon – which essentially amounted to his introduction to the American people and the commencement of Mr. Kennedy’s 1960 presidential campaign. I would suggest that Mr. Shapiro’s enthusiastic support of the Harris-Walz ticket is in the same vein. Mr. Shapiro is readying himself for a 2028 presidential campaign.
If there is a 2028 presidential campaign. Right now, I can’t hide my disappointment. In the last entry in these pages, I indicated that Ms. Harris’ early steps as the Democratic presidential nominee had given me real hope that she could defeat Mr. Trump and protect our democracy. Decry my pessimism; berate me if you wish, I would love to be persuaded; but I am markedly less confident that there will be a genuine 2028 presidential campaign today than I was yesterday.
McCoy's Noise 
Hi Jim,
Something I read about Shapiro, which your post did not mention, was that he ignored a sexual harassment allegation against one of his staffers. Another negative against him is something you did mention: he has his own aspirations to become president. As such, he might not have been a willing “second banana” to VP Harris. One plus for Walz that you didn’t mention is that among those who were considered as potential running mates for VP Harris, only Walz has had both legislative experience (in Congress) and executive experience (as a governor). I truly hope that your misgivings are needless and that Harris-Walz will win the White House.
Best regards, Julie D
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Can’t disagree with you more….and I’m not a young progressive. While my preference was Mark Kelly, I believe Shapiro’s strong support for Israel would be a HUGE negative. Personally, I supported Israel’s retaliatory moves for a long time, but they have gone too far. AND, it’s easy to be reckless in your actions if you think the US will bail you out, but I personally do not want to see any American lives lost in the Middle East quadmire where those yahoos over there have fought against each other for centuries and will continue to do so. If Israel thinks it will ever have peace after the excessive actions they have taken…that generations and generations of Palestinians will simply forget what they have seen over the last 10 months or so, Israel is deluding itself, and they and their supporters better get ready for centuries of more unrest. I don’t want the US to be a blank check supporter of Israel like we have been. I don’t think I’m alone in these thoughts and don’t want Shapiro and his opinions to be an anchor on the Dem ticket.
Plus, I’m not too forgiving about the spying Israel has done on us…ie. Jonathan Pollard and Ben- Ami Kadish. Friends shouldn’t spy of friends in my book.
Edk
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Hi Jim,
I must say I hold a different view. My optimism for a Democratic victory in November is not much diminished (nor increased) by Harris’s selection of Walz. That’s especially because I’ve had little optimism for any Dem in this year’s presidential race.
Walz differs from Shapiro, true; but in ways that will not make or break this race. If you don’t mind, I’ll expand on your specific topic.
Biden was overdue to be replaced in the eyes of most voters. So I say we are in a better place with Harris at the top and Joe sidelined. Yet I’m less impressed by Harris as a candidate than by Trump’s amazing political resilience despite the onslaught of disqualifying matter we have witnessed from and about Trump over eight years.
I am no pollster. Elections are inherently unpredictable, with many variables. Candidates and how they campaign, of course, certainly matter. Jim, I will put my neck out and make this prediction which I fervently hope to be proven wrong: My visceral take on the 2024 race is that this electorate’s orientation to what Trump represents to voters is too much for any Dem to overcome in enough of the 6 or 8 battleground states.
Since the 1990s, the pithy essence of the race for President was said to be “the economy stupid.” Today (my viscera talking again), looking at Europe for example, among many other places, national elections are contests over competing versions of nationalist direction. They are most often now about migratory patterns, driven by economics, political oppression, war and climate change (to all that I can’t add “stupid”). The sad consequences in 2024 are tidal waves of voter fears, some rational, some confused and some overtly xenophobic.
Trump is riding that wave and it’s his race to lose. He’s capable of blowing it despite his hammerlock hold on his base, his party, Fox and other right wing media and other major backers.
Harris is increasingly appealing to a substantial swath of the electorate. But with a late start and the wolf at the door in the key states, she’s the underdog. I’d say she likely has more bark than bite.
The bottom line: I long ago lost faith in American voters to pick the better choice for President. In relatively recent history, we elected Reagan or a Bush five times (not to mention Trump). Obama and Clinton were merciful exceptions and extraordinary politicians.
If I were to wager on this one I’d bet on the crook from Queens and the Appalachian hillbilly over the attractive California woman and Mr. Minnesota Nice.
Thanks for listening.
Dan
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