Ouch!: A Postscript; Democratic Convention Preview

[Please pardon this note’s length; our life’s circumstances taken together with the timing of the Democratic Convention have caused what are essentially two posts to be compressed into one.]

“Decry my pessimism; berate me if you wish, I would love to be persuaded …”

In this original (“Ouch!) post, while noting that I had nothing personally against putative Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee MN Gov. Tim Walz, I expressed regret that the Presumptive Democratic Presidential Nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, had chosen to pass over PA Gov. Josh Shapiro, who I believed that if chosen would have given her the best chance to win Mr. Shapiro’s pivotal, perhaps politically existential for Ms. Harris, Electoral College state of Pennsylvania.

No entry since the Noise started spouting in 2017 has generated more decrying and received more berating.  😉  Some expressing disagreement with the opinion expressed here have thought Gov. Walz’ optimistic demeanor would help Ms. Harris; some that Mr. Walz’ more progressive record (as contrasted with Mr. Shapiro’s more centrist tendencies) would be an asset; others (one as recently as yesterday) that Mr. Shapiro’s staunch support of Israel would be a detriment; others, that it wouldn’t make any difference whom Ms. Harris chose.  I must admit that when one particular dissenter, who is very taken with Mr. Walz’ positive demeanor and progressive record, disagreed with me – across our kitchen counter – I wisely adopted the approach often taken by Lee Childs’ fictional Jack Reacher, familiar to all fans of Mr. Childs’ thriller series:  I said nothing.  🙂 .

Given my lawyer DNA, I thoroughly enjoyed the spirited responses.  Our kind actually relishes the rough-and-tumble of well-intended clashes of views.  (Well, there’s maybe one that it would have been simpler to live without 😉 ).  As I indicated in the post, I most fervently hope y’all are right.

Now that the dust is settling a bit, a few impressions – the most intriguing (which, alas, was not originally mine) last:

It has been reported by credible sources that Israel’s strikes into Gaza against Hamas have killed tens of thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians, including thousands of children.  Recently, yet more Palestinian children have been killed or maimed in Israel’s attacks on schools harboring Hamas terrorists.  It is conceivable that if the Israeli-Hamas conflict cannot be settled soon – and certainly, if Israel bombs more schools or the war widens – Mr. Shapiro’s avid support of Israel could have become a liability to the Harris ticket.

I don’t think any of the aspersions that MAGAs have thus far sought to cast on Mr. Walz will carry any weight with anybody with any sense.  To impugn Mr. Walz’ 24 years of National Guard service because he retired before his unit was deployed to the Middle East rings pretty hollow coming from a party whose standard bearer was clearly a Vietnam draft dodger.  MAGA presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump’s calling Mr. Walz, “Tampon Tim,” because as Minnesota Governor Mr. Walz signed a bill that enabled the provision of feminine hygiene products in Minnesota grade school restrooms is just … stupid.  (Although CNN has largely disproven MAGAs’ claim that the products have been placed in boys’ bathrooms, my question is:  even if Mr. Trump’s claim was true, aside from any miniscule waste of Minnesota taxpayer funds – Who cares?)  Finally, MAGA Oversight Committee Chair U.S. KY Rep. James Comer is now asking the FBI for information on Mr. Walz’ connections to China.  Apparently, Mr. Walz spent a year teaching in China after he graduated from college – a pretty long time ago — and during his subsequent Minnesota high school teaching years organized many student trips to China.  That, at least insofar as I know, is the summary of Mr. Walz’ connections to China.  I would venture that the majority of those reading these pages either went on, or had children who went on, high school trips similar to those organized by Mr. Walz (one of our sons went on a trip to Russia in the late ‘90’s, for pity’s sake.)  This is so pathetic that one can even envision any sane voice left at Fox News saying, “So Walz organized high school trips to China?  When he was a Minnesota high school teacher?  Not even we can make something out of this – Comer’s a moron.”  Is that all they got?  

Now, what I find the most intriguing impression I have heard about Mr. Walz’ selection – one of the million notions I wish I would have thought of before I heard it – from MSNBC Commentator Chuck Todd:  After Mr. Walz was chosen, Mr. Todd observed that an assessment of the respective strategic electoral benefits of Messrs. Walz and Shapiro ultimately came down to whether one viewed the upcoming election as a turn out election or a persuasion election.  In other words:  If one believes that the path to victory is turning out the vote of all those already committed to one’s cause, then the Walz pick made sense because it avoided the potential for a rancorous split among Democrats, including the key student voter segment, who object to Mr. Shapiro’s steadfast support of Israel.  On the other hand, if one views the key to victory as persuading, and thus gaining the vote of, swing state swing voters – mostly suburban conservative independent and moderate Republicans, largely financially secure — that the Democrats are safer than Mr. Trump, then Mr. Shapiro was probably the wiser choice.

These are the kinds of nuanced decisions we expect the President of the United States to make.  Although I remain unpersuaded that Mr. Walz was the wiser choice – I remain fixated on Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes — Mr. Todd’s comment offered a strategic rationale for Ms. Harris’ selection.  The talk of every Presidential candidate about having picked a running mate “Ready to step in on Day 1,” or “Chemistry,” or as a “Governing Partner,” etc., etc., etc., is all a bunch of bunkum.  If you don’t win an Electoral College majority, it’s irrelevant.

No matter whether one applauds Mr. Walz’ selection or would have preferred that Ms. Harris pick Mr. Shapiro, I think all who seek a Democratic victory can probably agree on this:

If Ms. Harris wins the presidency, she was right whether or not she carried Pennsylvania. 

If she loses the presidency but carries Pennsylvania, it probably didn’t matter which finalist she chose. 

If she loses Pennsylvania and loses to Mr. Trump in the Electoral College by 19 or fewer votes, she was wrong.

The Democratic Convention starts today.  The party has scheduled a celebrated all-star speaking cast.  Notions on the gathering:

First:  I suspect that there will be no rising Democratic stars given prime time speaking slots – no Mr. Shapiro, no U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, no MI Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, no KY Gov. Andy Beshear.  To win, Democrats need to remain united; I doubt that delegates will be offered any opportunity for second guessing, for them to leave the convention hall on Thursday evening thinking – as the Democrats did in 1956 when they nominated U.S. TN Sen. Estes Kefauver instead of then U.S. MA Sen. John Kennedy for Vice President, and the Republicans did in 1976 when they nominated President Gerald Ford instead of then former CA Gov. Ronald Reagan for president — “We nominated the wrong ‘guy’.”

Tonight, former Democratic Nominee, Secretary of State, NY Sen. and First Lady Hillary Clinton will caution Democrats not to be over exuberant, and to remember Electoral College math — that she beat Mr. Trump by 3 million votes, but he won the White House.  She will remind women that although her campaign put tens of millions of dents in the last American glass ceiling, it remains up to voters this year to break through it.

Tonight President Joe Biden will remind voters of all he has accomplished.  Expect an overwhelming, and extraordinarily well-deserved, ovation.  He will talk about the need to pass the torch to the next generation, perhaps even quoting Mr. Kennedy from 1960.  (An aside:  I dismiss claims that Mr. Biden was “pushed out” by the Democratic Party establishment.  While the President obviously withdrew with a heavy heart, he did so because saw what we all saw:  he was going to lose to Donald Trump.  He couldn’t be “pushed aside”; he is the sitting President of the United States, and he had already won enough delegates to clinch the party’s nomination, had he wished to hold it.)

Tuesday night, President Barack Obama will be … Barack Obama.  It takes no prescience to declare that he will deliver the most soaring rhetoric of the Convention.  He has been carefully scheduled not to upstage Mr. Biden, Mr. Walz, or Ms. Harris.  He will speak warmly of Mr. Biden, laud Ms. Harris, excite the young (notwithstanding his now gray hair 😉 ), and lecture voters of color – as only he can – as to the consequences if they don’t come out to vote for Ms. Harris.

Wednesday night, President Bill Clinton will, in his own style (for those with shorter memories, as effective albeit a different manner than the oratory of Messrs. Kennedy, Reagan and Obama), remind voters of how he effectively administered a 1990s growth economy and draw analogies to Ms. Harris’ platform, and emphasize a point he always made extremely effectively in his own campaigns:  our need to think about the future.  (I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes on stage to his campaign song, Fleetwood Mac’s “Don’t Stop [Thinkin’ About Tomorrow].”) 

Mr. Walz closes Wednesday night by getting to introduce himself.  He does seem a “Joyful Warrior,” in the style of arguably Minnesota’s most influential politician of all time, the late Vice President and U.S. MN Sen. Hubert Humphry [who was literally known as the “Happy Warrior” (for those of us old enough to remember, Mr. Walz’ cadence is reminiscent of Mr. Humphrey’s)].  He will talk about his family, his upbringing, his military service, his years as a teacher, what he did in Congress (he was a centrist representing a conservative district), what he has done as Minnesota Governor.  If he is effective, he will dispel the Republican claims that he is somehow a military shirker or a wild-eyed liberal.  He will particularly seek to draw a contrast between himself and the extremely inexperienced Republican Vice Presidential Nominee U.S. OH Sen. J.D. Vance.

These are, of course, all merely opening acts.  Ms. Harris needs to bring it home on Thursday night.  She should paint a happy, positive picture while noting her prosecutorial background and blaming Mr. Trump for the repeal of Roe v. Wade, the constant erratic and divisive upheaval of his presidency, the fact that he lost in 2020 and he’s still lying about it, the January 6th assault on the Capitol, kowtowing to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and killing the bipartisan immigration bill.  I’ve been pleased to see that she keeps reminding her crowds that she remains the underdog to Mr. Trump.  She needs to stress that in her acceptance speech.  While she should be careful not to offend moderates by attacking the Electoral College – “It was a compromise that our Founding Fathers struck to form our union” – she should note that Electoral College math presents Democrats an uphill battle.  She might well point out that the Democrat has won the popular vote in all presidential elections since 1992 save one, but Republicans have served three terms White House terms during which they appointed the six conservative justices that overturned Roe; that every vote counts.  She might conclude with, “Our quest is every citizen’s vote; our mission is to save our democracy; our vision is to provide a better future for every American.  God bless America.”

I know, I know.  I’ve read way too many Churchill and Kennedy speeches.

We’ll see what happens.  Enjoy the show.