I rarely address Wisconsin state politics or substantive matters in these pages; I simply have much less interest in state than in federal issues. That said, having voted for Republican Tommy Thompson each of the four times he ran for Governor in this state in the 1980s and 1990s (Mr. Thompson was conservative, but collegial, and understood how to emphasize and enhance Wisconsin’s strengths), over the last quarter-century I have been appalled by the Wisconsin Republican Party’s transition from Mr. Thompson’s governing approach to mindless tribalism and mean-spiritedness toward those it perceives its adversaries and its wholehearted embrace of ignorance and bias. Today, the Republican MAGA-controlled state legislature more fittingly belongs in the Know Nothing Party of mid-1800s than to Wisconsin’s progressive tradition; it remains best personified by former WI Gov. Scott Walker, who was “Trump before Trump” in this state.
For the last eight years, Wisconsin has been led by Democrat WI Gov. Tony Evers. Mr. Evers, the most inoffensive of personalities, defeated Mr. Walker by about a percentage point in 2018 and won reelection by 3 points in 2022. He has been an effective counterweight to the Neanderthal nonsense that the Republican legislature would otherwise wreak upon Wisconsinites. At 74, Mr. Evers has chosen not to seek a third term.
Wisconsin Republicans have already settled upon their putative Gubernatorial nominee: U.S. WI Rep. Tom Tiffany. A now ever-present “AI Overview” of Mr. Tiffany provides as follows:
“U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany has fully embraced Donald Trump, aligning with him on policies and securing Trump’s endorsement for the Wisconsin gubernatorial race. Tiffany has openly defended controversial Trump initiatives, such as the proposed anti-weaponization fund, and frequently appears at Trump events with Wisconsin voters.”
I don’t really think more needs to be said about the stakes here, not only for how Wisconsin local policies and politics will degrade if Mr. Tiffany wins and the Republicans maintain their control of the state’s legislature, but for the nation as a whole; having rabid MAGAs control of the state apparatus in the nation’s most purely purple state would not bode well for having free and fair federal elections in this state in 2028. Wisconsin Democrats are currently trying to figure out whom to nominate to run against Mr. Tiffany. I am more than a little fearful that these Democrats will do what they have done before – endemic to Democrats across the country nationwide – and shoot themselves in the foot.
Although I think my sentiments are pretty clear, let me make them, as they say, crystal: while I intend to vote for whomever the Wisconsin Democrats nominate for the Wisconsin governorship unless that candidate can be shown to have engaged in behaviors that can be fairly described as degenerate (a challenge that the Democratic nominee for Maine’s U.S. Senate seat, Graham Platner, is now seeking to refute) – in which case, I won’t vote – my primary – indeed, my only — criteria for which candidate I think is best supported is whichever candidate is most likely to beat Mr. Tiffany.
I don’t care which contender is the smartest. I don’t care which contender is the nicest. I don’t care which contender has the most detailed grasp of state policy issues. I don’t care which contender is the best administrator. I don’t care which contender is the most experienced. I don’t care which contender would work best with a Republican-controlled legislature. I don’t care which contender is the one who genuinely cares about me.
You get the idea.
What follows may be offensive to some; these might consider the observations below too cynical, unfairly stereotypic. My response: I think we’ve had ample evidence that a large share of our electorate casts its votes on stereotypes. The notions below outline what this Wisconsinite believes is the type of candidate most likely to defeat a MAGA candidate in a Wisconsin statewide race. Whether or not one agrees with these observations, I am hopeful that such will be accepted in the spirit in which they are offered – that it is vital that a Democrat win the Wisconsin Governorship this November.
Elections are about matchups and the existing political atmosphere. In a year in which the tide is strongly rolling in Democrats’ favor, they should simply pick a candidate who can ride the wave in. No histrionics, appeals to identity, talk of revolution, or tricks are required. Don’t give voters who have become disappointed in Mr. Trump but are by inclination Republican any reason to get mad, scared, or excited. Just get out of the way, and let the tide carry you in.
Let’s look at the field.
In a poll taken at the recent Wisconsin state Democratic Convention, seven candidates received preference votes for the gubernatorial nomination: Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez; WI State Assemblywomen Francesca Hong; WI State Sen. Kelda Roys; Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley; former Secretary of the WI Department of Administration Joel Brennan; former WI Lt. Governor and 2022 Wisconsin Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Mandela Barnes; and former secretary and chief executive officer of the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation Missy Hughes. Ms. Hughes has since dropped out, and endorsed Ms. Rodriguez.
Let’s start with Mr. Crowley, an African American. He may be a heck of guy, and a heck of a County Executive. Politically, I don’t think it matters. In an article about the Wisconsin Democratic Convention poll, he is quoted as saying, “‘… people always ask me, David, can a Black candidate become governor?’” Mr. Crowley ultimately answers the question, “‘Yes.’”
I applaud Mr. Crowley for openly addressing the figurative elephant in his campaign room. I wish I could agree with his conclusion. I can’t. Mr. Tiffany will simply use the same race and crime cards upstate against Mr. Crowley that U.S. WI Sen. Ron Johnson used effectively against Mr. Barnes in their 2022 Senate race. I don’t think that any Black man not named Barack Obama (whom I voted for twice) can currently win Wisconsin, and frankly, I’m not sure that even Mr. Obama could win the state in today’s environment. Although I’ve never heard Mr. Crowley speak, it still seems a fair surmise that he’s not the political athlete Mr. Obama is.
On to Mr. Barnes. In addition to being Black and having lost to Mr. Johnson in 2022, there is the legendary photograph of Mr. Barnes, after having been elected WI Lt. Governor in Mr. Evers’ first term, holding up an “Abolish ICE” tee shirt. While the Trump Administration’s Nazi-like ICE activities have arguably made that less of a detriment than it was in 2022, I would submit that it is still a disqualifier in the Republican bastions of the state. This race is not about winning the votes of those who want to abolish ICE; it’s about not scaring those who don’t. The Republican propaganda machine is both ruthless and effective. I have personally seen the physical unease of Wisconsinites in the center part of the state when Republicans harp on the “invasion” by illegal immigrants (notwithstanding the fact that Latinos picked pickles in the center of the state every summer for decades without notable issues.) As irrational as these sentiments are, they exist. There may be a number of moderate conservatives who are uncomfortable with what the Trump Administration has done and is doing, and they may be okay with reforming ICE practices; but they will be alarmed by anyone who seeks – or can be credibly propagandized to appear to be seeking — to abolish it. Mr. Barnes couldn’t beat Mr. Johnson in 2022; should he really be given another try? He kinda just looks like a professional politician who is looking for a job. (Apparently, at least some Wisconsin Democrats share at least some of these reservations; Mr. Barnes finished sixth in the Convention’s straw poll.)
Before we move on: an aside about progressivism, democratic socialism. While polls have shown that when issues are put before the voters without party labels, large segments of our polity agree with a number of the positions espoused by democratic socialists such as U.S. VT Sen. Bernie Sanders, U.S. NY Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, many moderate voters — where the Wisconsin gubernatorial election will be won – remain uneasy with the same positions when they are identified with “progressivism” or “democratic socialism.” I have commented in previous notes that rank-and-file MAGAs believe that because Mr. Trump hates the same people that they hate, Mr. Trump loves them; he doesn’t. I submit that perhaps emboldened by recent electoral successes in places like New York City, strident progressives may obliviously believe that because the moderate majority in places like Wisconsin has come to dislike Mr. Trump and his excesses, that moderate majority is eager to embrace the progressive, democratic socialist agenda labeled as such.
It isn’t.
Repeating from above: the MAGA propaganda machine is ruthless and effective. Repeating from above: Don’t give voters who have become disappointed in Mr. Trump but are by inclination Republican any reason to get mad, scared, or excited. Just get out of the way, and let the tide carry you in.
Let’s move on to the progressive darling of the moment, Ms. Hong. She has been endorsed by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, who for some years now has obviously been the poster child for progressive demonization in the alt-right media. Progressive media darling U.S. CA Rep. Ro Khanna has come in to campaign for her. In her past, she has published tweets calling for the defunding of the police. At one point, she was reportedly sued for failing to pay her credit card bill. (Obviously, many millions of Americans have financial difficulties; the issue is whether a majority of any given state’s voters will be willing to elect a Governor who has had financial problems.) She is from Madison. She’s even Asian, for God’s sake.
I would guess that Mr. Tiffany is drooling at the prospect of taking on Ms. Hong. What I find incredible is that progressives with national profiles don’t realize that their endorsements may help a Democrat win a party nomination, but in a state as closely divided as Wisconsin, their endorsement is probably the kiss of death in the general election. I recall David Halberstam noting in one of his books that in 1960, the Kennedys had little regard for the Adlai Stevenson wing of the Democratic Party – the forebears of today’s democratic socialists – because the Stevenson Democrats seemed to prize Mr. Stevenson’s graceful, witty election night concession speeches more than they did winning. The Kennedys were about winning. Winning the general election – as long as such is done within the bounds of law by a candidate with some bounds of decent character — is what counts.
This has been long enough. (That, I know you agree with. 😉) Ms. Roys is from Madison, and been around a long time. Mr. Brennan, as a former top aide to Mr. Evers, has experience near the top of the Wisconsin political pyramid. I understand why either would continue if s/he truly believes that s/he has a chance to win the nomination and if s/he truly believes that if nominated s/he can beat Mr. Tiffany, but if either of those qualifications seem doubtful, they should get out – as Ms. Hughes has – and endorse the candidate s/he believes most likely to beat Mr. Tiffany.
All that said, and as noted above, if Messrs. Crowley, Barnes or Brennan or Mses. Hong or Roys win the Democratic nomination – and again, absent any significant verified character issues hereafter coming to light – I will vote for any of them.
That said, I’m pulling for Ms. Rodriguez. She’s the sitting Lt. Governor; she’s from, lives and won election to the Wisconsin state assembly in a purple district, which if she is nominated may enable her to syphon off some of the support Mr. Tiffany will probably need to counteract what will be overwhelming Democratic turnout in Milwaukee and Madison; she served in the Peace Corps; she’s trained and has served as a nurse; she’s worked in the public and private sectors. She’s married and the mother of two. Since we’ve spent much of this note dealing in stereotypes, it must be noted that she’s (obviously) female and has a Latino last name – her husband is a naturalized U.S. citizen originally from Mexico – both of which may raise concerns among some conservative voters in a state which has rejected two female presidential candidates and is in some quarters uneasy about Latino immigration; but of the likely nominees, in the current environment she seemingly presents the least that would give voters who have become disappointed in Mr. Trump but are by inclination Republican any reason to get mad, scared, or excited.
It’s the way Mr. Evers narrowly beat Mr. Walker in 2018.
If you can persuade me that one of the other Democratic gubernatorial candidates has a better chance to beat Mr. Tiffany than Ms. Rodriguez, I’ll switch my allegiance to him/her; but persuade me.
Let’s hope whomever Wisconsin Democrats nominate to run for Governor this fall is successful; Wisconsinites deserve more on election night than a local version of Mr. Stevenson’s long ago witty and graceful odes to a lost cause.
McCoy's Noise 