On the Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Nomination: a Postscript

Although various commitments and experiences have kept me from burdening you with much this month, a number of events meriting remark have obviously occurred.  While the merry-go-round for the Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial nomination is not the most important of these, given that the support I expressed for the candidacy of WI Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez in a June post (for which this entry serves as postscript) has turned out to be so disastrously misguided, this seems an appropriate follow-up.

As those who read that earlier post might recall, my only concern in the Democrats’ gubernatorial nomination process is that it yield the candidate most likely to beat Republican MAGA Gubernatorial Nominee Tom Tiffany, a Trump acolyte.  (I would make an exception if the most likely Democratic winner was proven to have character flaws of a kind and degree akin to those that have caused former Maine Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner to withdraw his candidacy, but as far as I am aware, no such issues surround any of the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidates.)  The premise upon which I based the initial post remains unchanged:  that in a year in which the prevailing political winds strongly favor Democrats, the party’s surest path to victory is to nominate the candidate best positioned to ride the political tide.  I based my support of Ms. Rodriguez little upon her affirmative attributes but rather upon the conclusion that she then appeared to be prominent Democratic contender least likely to anger, scare, or excite those Wisconsin voters disappointed in Mr. Trump but, if motivated to vote, would be inclined to vote Republican.

As all Wisconsinites who care are aware, Ms. Rodriguez has now dropped out of the race.  In mid-July, she had to announce that she had fired her campaign manager “after discovering serious mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign finance filings she prepared.”  It now appears that rather than having the hundreds of thousands of dollars that the Rodriguez campaign seemed to have when it had earlier announced an impending $1 million ad buy, the reports it filed as it disappeared indicate that its debts significantly outweigh its assets.

Oops. 

Since I have seen no indications of any untoward behavior by Ms. Rodriguez regarding the financial discrepancies described above, I would still have voted for her had she managed to stumble her way to the Democrats’ Gubernatorial nomination since I would prefer an inept Governor to a MAGA Governor.  That said, I would have done so knowing full well that through her incompetence she would have scared Wisconsinites disappointed in Mr. Trump but inclined to vote Republican.  Mr. Tiffany wasn’t even going to need to get dirty to beat her:  just run ads indicating that she couldn’t add 2 and 2.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, 40, an African American, who had dropped out of the race just days before and endorsed Ms. Rodriguez following her campaign’s announcement of the significant ad buy, has now reentered the race.  Mr. Crowley first won his current office in 2020 and was reelected with 85% of the vote in 2024.

WI Gov. Tony Evers, who up to now has refrained from endorsing any candidate, has now endorsed Mr. Crowley.

As this is typed, two very progressive candidates with notable bases of support remain in the race – WI State Assemblywomen Francesca Hong, Asian American, a self-described Democratic Socialist, and former WI Lt. Governor and 2022 Wisconsin Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Mandela Barnes, African American, he of the “Abolish ICE” Tee Shirt.  Ms. Hong and Mr. Barnes are reportedly blasting Mr. Crowley’s reentry as a last-ditch effort by the Wisconsin Democratic establishment to wrest the nomination from a true progressive.  I’m pretty sure:  they’re right.  That said, the Governor is obviously the Wisconsin Democrat with the deepest expertise and best record of winning statewide elections (Mr. Evers has won statewide office five times).  He is clearly signaling that he considers Mr. Crowley the most likely remaining Democratic contender to defeat Mr. Tiffany.  (In particular, by his bypassing Mr. Barnes, the Lt. Governor in his first term, and former Wisconsin Secretary of Administration Joel Brennan, who worked for him during his first term, one can only infer that Mr. Evers is pessimistic about either man’s chances of winning the nomination and/or the November election.) I want Mr. Tiffany to be defeated.

I’m voting for Mr. Crowley in the upcoming Democratic Gubernatorial primary.

Make no mistake.  The misgivings I expressed in my earlier note about Mr. Crowley’s electability still stand.  I still have the same trouble believing that any Black man can win a statewide Wisconsin race in the state’s current extremely toxic and closely contested political environment.  Since posting my original note, I have heard Mr. Crowley speak, and he does present well, but he is not an electric performer.  It takes no prescience to predict that Mr. Tiffany will use the same race and crime cards upstate against Mr. Crowley that U.S. WI Sen. Ron Johnson used effectively against Mr. Barnes in their 2022 Senate race.  In Republican pockets of Wisconsin, Mr. Tiffany and his acolytes will – at least somewhat subtly at first, unless they see that subtly isn’t working — paint Mr. Crowley as one of them (you know who they are) from there (i.e., the depraved city) who will coddle criminals while ignoring good God-fearing, hard-working white folk. 

That said, it’s not hard to guess why Mr. Evers has endorsed Mr. Crowley.  Republicans are already running ads against Ms. Hong as “too liberal for Wisconsin” – which some Democrats claim is their attempt to boost her profile and support.  If she is nominated, Mr. Tiffany will be able to (correctly) call her a “Socialist,” still Boogeymen to many rural voters (who don’t realize that they favor many Democratic Socialist positions when no political labels are applied to them), and he’ll undoubtedly take a cue from Mr. Trump and start calling her a Communist, a kiss of death for rural voters over 50.  (Put aside the fact that Mr. Trump – and presumably, therefore, Mr. Tiffany – have consistently coddled Communist Russian President Vladimir Putin; go figure.)  Mr. Barnes is sufficiently progressive that although he does not identify as a Democratic Socialist, Mr. Tiffany will (in addition to using the race/crime card) label him as such, with the “Abolish ICE” Tee shirt as evidence.  A number of the lines of attack Mr. Tiffany will be able to use against Ms. Hong and/or Mr. Barnes don’t – at least now — seem like they would be as effective against Mr. Crowley.

It will be interesting to see what steps Mr. Crowley takes now that a good part of the Wisconsin Democratic state organization is presumably coalescing around him.  I think it’s a fair surmise that he has a pretty strong political organization in Milwaukee County, one of the two counties that will be most crucial in any victory achieved by any Democratic Gubernatorial candidate in November; if advising Mr. Crowley, I’d recommend that he leave the ground game in Milwaukee County to his team and between now and the August 11 Election Day live in Dane County – the other county crucial to any hopes he has of victory in November — with forays to Wisconsin’s other Democratic areas to seek to siphon off votes that would otherwise go to Ms. Hong.  I’d also advise that he start cutting ads in which he talks to the camera, introducing himself to Wisconsin, and calmly describing what he wants to do on issues that will resonate with voters of all stripes throughout the state, such as healthcare.

An aside:  I completely understand why Ms. Hong and Mr. Barnes have reportedly responded with irritation to Mr. Crowley’s reentry into the race; when you have put your heart and soul into anything as much as they have clearly done in their campaigns, winning is the focus and anything that might get in the way of that is to be disparaged.  At the same time – and again, repeating a comment from the first post – progressives and Social Democrats, emotionally reinforced by the electoral victories of compatriots in places like New York City, obliviously believe that because the moderate majority in places like Wisconsin has come to dislike Mr. Trump and his excesses, that moderate majority is eager to embrace the progressive, democratic socialist agenda labeled as such.  It isn’t.  Progressives and Social Democrats need to be mindful that the Democratic Party establishment in Wisconsin and other states isn’t the adversary; Mr. Trump and his MAGA cult are.  Although either Ms. Hong or Mr. Barnes will get my November vote if s/he secures the nomination (avid progressives make me more than a little leery, but those who implicitly seek an American Apartheid terrify me), I continue to suspect that today’s avid progressives – descendants of the Adlai Stevenson Democrat presidential campaigns of the 1950s, both electoral losers — would rather stand on principle and lose than act pragmatically and win.  This is Donald Trump and his MAGA minions on the other side.  For the future of our democracy, within the bounds of law and morals, they need to win. 

[A piece of advice to Mr. Barnes, which if he would ever read this, I’m confident he would not appreciate:  he should get out, and endorse Mr. Crowley.  He certainly appears to have too many strikes against him to beat Mr. Tiffany.  He had his chance against Mr. Johnson in 2022, and he lost.  I recall that when his last adversary for the Democrats’ 2022 U.S. Senatorial nomination, Wisconsin State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, dropped out and endorsed him, he commended her, indicating “[Defeating Mr. Johnson] is bigger than any one of us.”  Now, Mr. Barnes should heed his own 2022 observation.  Winning is bigger than any one candidate.  (A Noise pledge:  if Mr. Barnes wins the nomination and beats Mr. Tiffany, I will happily note my misguided advice in these pages. 😊]

I observed in my earlier note that one must take stereotypes into account when assessing candidates’ respective electoral changes because, like it or not, a large segment of voters cast their ballots based on stereotypes.  Despite the heavy Democratic winds expected to prevail this November, the collapse of Ms. Rodriguez’ campaign seemingly leaves Ms. Hong and Messrs. Crowley and Barnes as the remaining likely Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial nominees (WI State Sen. Kelda Roys and, as noted above, Mr. Brennan are still in the race, but I am not aware of any polls indicating that either has much electoral support).  My gut tells me that Wisconsin Democrats are now executing a fire drill eerily similar to that which Democrats carried out on the federal level when President Joe Biden too belatedly withdrew his presidential candidacy.  I fear that these recent political convulsions have shifted the balance in favor of Mr. Tiffany and the MAGAs no matter who wins the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.  I do find it both amazing and disturbing that in a state in which half of the citizenry bitterly oppose Mr. Trump, another pivot segment is leery of his excesses, and his national support is at or near his all-time lows, Wisconsin Democrats can’t find a gubernatorial candidate who won’t anger, scare, or excite Wisconsin voters disappointed in Mr. Trump but inclined to vote Republican.

Yet, that is where I fear that we are.  At the same time, to conclude with the point I began the original note:  I rarely address Wisconsin state politics or substantive matters in these pages because I have relatively little interest in state issues.  Little interest obviously begets limited knowledge.  Hopefully, the concerns expressed here about the Democrats’ Wisconsin Gubernatorial current electoral prospects are, truly, only so much Noise.  

We’ll see what happens.