On Alexei Navalny

Alexei Navalny has died in a Russian prison. 

As all who care are aware, Mr. Navalny was perhaps the most prominent Russian critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin during Putin’s dictatorship, arguably the most effective voice in rallying a significant segment of the Russian people against the Putin regime during its tenure.  For his efforts Mr. Navalny was imprisoned on a number of occasions, and survived multiple attempts by the Russian government to maim or kill him.  After being poisoned in August, 2020, he was allowed to leave Russia for Germany in order to receive treatment; I assume that Putin expected that Mr. Navalny would die outside Russia, or that if Mr. Navalny did manage to survive, he would remain in exile.  Instead, when Mr. Navalny did survive and was well enough to travel, he returned to Russia, knowing he would immediately be arrested and imprisoned, and undoubtedly anticipating that he would ultimately perish.

Mr. Navalny’s was the ultimate sacrifice for freedom.  May his martyrdom be a stark reminder (although none should be needed) of the brutality of the Putin regime for those being lulled into complaisance about or denial of it.

While I have used this phrase a number of times in these pages to mark the passing of individuals who have made notable contributions to our world, I think if those individuals were alive today (the late U.S. AZ Sen. John McCain particularly comes to mind), they would agree that it has never been nor will it ever be more warranted than it is for Mr. Navalny.

Requiescat in pace.

Can We Keep It?

According to a well-known account of a conversation occurring at the end of the last day of the 1787 Philadelphia Constitutional Convention, when the members of the Convention had just finished hammering out the Constitution under which we live today (as amended), one of the grand ladies of Philadelphia society, Elizabeth Willing Powel, asked Benjamin Franklin, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?”

According to the legend, Mr. Franklin replied: 

“A republic, if you can keep it.”

By all indications, a Senate deal which would provide both stringent border protections favored by Republicans – controls, indeed, that I have seen reported as being much more rigorous than Republicans will ever secure in the future if in 2024 Democrats retain the White House and regain complete control of Congress — and aid needed by Ukraine to effectively continue its defense against Russia that enjoys bipartisan support, is about to be scuttled because former President Donald Trump has instructed his Republican minions in Congress to kill it.  It appears undisputed – this is the crux — that Mr. Trump doesn’t want our border challenges to be addressed because he wants to be able to blame President Joe Biden for the chaos during the upcoming campaign.  Republican U.S. UT Sen. Mitt Romney has called Mr. Trump’s action “appalling”; Republican U.S. NC Sen. Thom Tillis has called it “immoral” to reject a border deal to help Mr. Trump politically.  Bowing to Mr. Trump’s bidding, MAGA Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Mike Johnson has declared that the bipartisan Senate arrangement will be “Dead on Arrival” in the House.  After Mr. Biden expressed support for the Senate agreement late last week, Mr. Johnson sharply criticized the President, claiming that Mr. Biden should instead secure the border by executive order.  (The irony here is particularly thick.  Republicans have done nothing but accuse Mr. Biden of executive overreach ever since he took office; at the same time, Mr. Trump’s instructions could well politically backfire on him if Democrats have the savvy to run continuous reels, particularly in our southern border states, of Messrs. Romney, Tillis and their Republican Senate colleagues blaming Mr. Trump for the deal’s failure.)

I admit that I haven’t educated myself on immigration policy and issues over the last several years in the way I have intended; that said, it is clear even from liberal media outlets that — no matter whose fault it is, or what factors contribute to it — we face a human, security and logistical crisis on our southern border.  A large segment of our people are highly exercised about it.  Senate Republicans clearly think that the deal they have struck with their Democratic colleagues will markedly improve our current challenge. (I note that Mr. Romney said that the bipartisan bill would “solve” our border dilemma; I doubt any piece of legislation could do that.)

At the same time, I have for months been painfully aware that Ukrainians are fighting and dying daily to defend their homeland, that they’ve been running out of munitions, and that their ability to withstand any future major Russian onslaught will be extremely compromised without the aid that this bill would provide.  It takes no prescience for anyone who has spent any time over the last 80 years considering U.S. foreign policy to understand that not only Western Europe but America will be less secure if Ukraine falls to Russia.

There is reportedly a solid majority in both Houses of Congress that would approve the Senate deal if it was allowed to come to a vote.  If so, the fate of the suffering people at the border, relief for our fellow citizens whose lives are being disrupted by the onslaught of migrants, and the destiny of a Ukrainian people struggling to defend themselves (and the world’s democracies) against despotism is being hamstrung by the spasms of one old, evil, demented megalomanic.

According to accounts of Congressional Republicans such as Mr. Romney and former U.S. WY Rep. Liz Cheney, the vast majority of Republicans in the Senate and most Republicans in the House have nothing but contempt for Mr. Trump.  They nonetheless kowtow to him because they fear losing their hallowed offices.  In addition to rank ambition, a rationale sometimes offered for these Republicans’ shameless obeisance to Mr. Trump is their fear of MAGA physical retribution against themselves and their families.  These are frankly pitiful attempts to rationalize a monstrous dereliction of duty by those who have intentionally sought and won membership in the branch of our federal government that has the Constitutional power to declare war – the power to send our men and women of the armed forces to fight and to die on behalf of America’s interests.  Those in the military and their families don’t get the luxury of ducking their responsibility in order to preserve their positions and their physical safety.  They have to follow whatever these craven blowhards decide is in their own political self interests.

I’m not sure whether I feel greater antagonism toward those MAGA officeholders who want to institute an American Apartheid or for those Republican officials who would support bipartisanship if they did not fear retribution.  Frankly, it doesn’t suffice to call the latter group, “cowards.”  People are fighting and dying for freedom in Ukraine, and they don’t have the guts to stand up.  They are — I know what crass epithet comes to my mind as an apt description; but I leave that one to you.

Meanwhile, last week a jury found the MAGA Messiah before whom these Republicans prostrate themselves liable to E. Jean Carroll for over $83 million dollars for continuing to defame Ms. Carroll after a jury of three women and six men had earlier found that he had sexually abused her.  (If you don’t know and still care to learn what Ms. Carroll testified that the former president did to her before the jury rendered its verdict, the substance of her account is readily available via internet search.)  The New York Times reported that as he left the courtroom last week on the day before the verdict was rendered, the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee loudly declared, “This is not America.”

I ironically agree with the former president’s aggrieved declaration – although obviously not with the lies he spews.  The despicable, toxic posturing and pandering now occurring in the United States House of Representatives is not America – my America – a country in which, to use Historian Jon Meacham’s analogy which I particularly like, Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan have been figuratively debating our best course over the last 90 years.  The two have certainly had vigorous disagreements, and each in life was a wily politician sensitive to the moods of his people, but each always urged in good faith what he felt was best for our nation, believed that it was in America’s strategic interest to use our power to constrain despotism across the globe, and understood that compromise between divergent views held in good faith was the core of our system.

At this most perilous time, when I see a compromise that could provide vital benefit on multiple fronts sacrificed to ambition and fear, I hearken back to Mr. Franklin’s exchange with Mrs. Powel.

I wonder if we can keep it.

To the Decisive Year Ahead

“You must not weaken in any way in your alert and vigilant frame of mind.  Though holiday rejoicing is necessary to the human spirit, yet it must add to the strength and resilience with which every man and woman turns again to the work they have to do, and also to the outlook and watch they have to keep on public affairs. …

[W]e have yet to make sure … that the words, ‘freedom,’ [and] ‘democracy’ … are not distorted from their true meaning as we have understood them.  There would be little use in punishing the Hitlerites for their crimes if law and justice did not rule, and if totalitarian or police governments were to take [their] place ….”

  • British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, May 13, 1945

Before our last 4th of July holiday, I quoted these remarks by Mr. Churchill in these pages – which he delivered to the British people on a date after the fall of Nazi Germany but before the defeat of Imperial Japan, and as the indications of Soviet Russia’s designs for eastward European territorial domination were first appearing – and there’s at least an even chance I’ll cite them at least once more before another of our 2024 national holidays.  There has not been a time in over 75 years in which they have been as relevant as they are today, as former President Donald Trump, unabashedly using rhetoric that is often a direct lift from Adolf Hitler, seems poised to win the presidential nomination of a major American political party whose adherents now consist of the fascist, the poisonously tribal, the cowardly, or the blind.

For most of my lifetime, presidential elections have been won by the candidate that was most effective at obtaining the votes of those in the political middle of our electorate.  More recently, given a closely-divided, hyper-polarized polity in which virtually all of our citizens have hardened leanings either right or left, winning has involved turnout – i.e., which side is better able to squeeze more votes out of its supporters.

This year, if democracy is to be preserved – assuming that Mr. Trump does win the Republican nomination – the supporters of the Democrat opposing him – overwhelmingly likely to be President Joe Biden – will need to be good at both.  Democrats will need to persuade enough of the disaffected and disappointed – particularly among minorities and the young – that it does matter for their futures to go to the polls to vote against Mr. Trump.  At the same time, Democrats will need to convince enough older voters who would in normal times lean toward a traditional Republican candidate that what matters in 2024 is preserving democracy — that there will always be another election in 2028 if Mr. Biden is reelected, no matter what he does.

It must be faced:  Mr. Trump’s cultish supporters will not leave him, and will show up on Election Day.  Mr. Biden’s seemingly increasing physical infirmity and what certainly appears to be a mishandled situation at our southern border clearly hurt his prospects.  The animating issue of abortion, together with what increasingly appears will be a soft economic landing and Mr. Trump’s chilling fascist rhetoric, are obviously powerful political assets to help Democrats persuade the open-minded.  Foreign policy (our apparently waning willingness to continue to support Ukraine, and our clearly dwindling patience with Israel’s manifestly indiscriminate destruction of Gaza) and the outcomes of Mr. Trump’s criminal and civil court proceedings are political wildcards.

It’s going to be that close.       

So as we celebrate the dawn of another year that has been given us, and amid whatever other New Year’s resolutions you may be contemplating, let me offer this:  consider how you might, as Mr. Churchill suggested over 75 years ago, apply your strength and resilience in the coming year to the work we have to do to preserve our democratic way of life. Don’t let exhaustion win.

Thank you for the honor of allowing me to share these posts with you again in 2023.

May you, your family and friends have a Happy and Healthy New Year.

Ukraine at the Precipice

As all who care are aware, a package to respectively provide billions in aid to Ukraine in its struggle against Russia, to Israel in its struggle against Hamas, and to Taiwan to help shore up its defenses against China is being tied up in a U.S. Senate squabble in which Republicans are insisting upon changes to American border security policy that are apparently an anathema to Democrats.  Last week, several outlets reported that a number of Senate Republicans “stormed out” of a meeting with Senate Democrats because they did not consider Democrats to be taking their border security demands seriously.

Although some – including me — might initially dismiss the Republicans’ opposition as pandering to their base, I took particular note that U.S. UT Sen. Mitt Romney – who is not running for re-election, has unassailable credentials as an opponent of Russian aggression, and is almost certainly not beloved by his caucus colleagues after his votes to convict former President Trump in both his impeachment trials and given the revelations in Mr. Romney’s book, Romney:  A Reckoning – was among the most incensed by what he viewed as Democrats’ intransigence on border issues.  On December 5, he tweeted:  “Dems want $106B—GOP wants a closed border. That’s the trade. But clueless Dems want to negotiate the border bill. Not going to happen. Is an open border more important to Dems than Ukraine and Israel?”.

I didn’t see it, but The Hill reported Sunday that on NBC News’ Meet the Press, Mr. Romney stated in part:

“It’s not just Republicans that are holding a hard line. It’s Democrats who are holding a hard line. Either side can move and can get this done. …  We have gone from one to 2000 [illegal] encounters at the border a day under … Bush, Obama and Trump [to] … 10 to 12,000 a day.  As Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman said, we’re basically seeing Pittsburgh show up [at] the border every month.”

Mr. Romney is an estimable man.  Given his views, I’m willing to assume that Senate Democrats are being too rigid.

Let’s put Taiwan and Israel aside for purposes of this note; at this moment, it appears unlikely that China’s President Xi Jinping is going to risk further hardening American attitude against China by ordering a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and, as I have previously observed here, it’s pretty clear that Israel has shown little need for our military aid to either defeat Hamas or to lay complete waste to the Gaza Strip. 

On the other hand, there appears to be consensus that Ukraine is about out of money, and without our military and economic aid, Ukraine will fall under Russian domination within the foreseeable future.  I have found the way that at least the electronic news outlets we follow have focused so heavily on the Israel-Hamas conflict since the Hamas attack of October 7, with scant attendant coverage of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion, to be extremely distressing; such emphasis endangers western democracy by causing us to take our eye off the ball — Ukraine.  Business Insider has reported that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia hoped lawmakers would continue to delay the Ukraine aid; The New Republic has reported that a Russian state television commentator has declared, “Well done, Republicans! They’re standing firm! That’s good for us.”

After all their sacrifices, all of the innocent deaths, all of the displacement, and all of the destruction of their homes and their institutions, and the attempted eradication of their nation and their culture by Vladimir Putin, and notwithstanding their Herculean defense of their homeland, without our continued assistance Ukrainians will lose.  Ukraine will disappear – perhaps even in name.  And we diddle and bicker.

I don’t know what the Republicans are demanding in the way of different or enhanced border security measures.  Even so, I will submit that if President Biden and Congressional Democrats can get Republicans’ agreement to authorize what the Administration deems to be sufficient aid to get Ukraine through to March, 2025, they should agree to all Republican border demands that don’t include shooting illegal immigrants or separating immigrant children from parents (there may be some other similarly egregious exception I’m overlooking, but you get the idea).  If advising Mr. Biden, I would recommend that he call his old Senate colleague, Senate Minority Leader U.S. KY Sen. Mitch McConnell – who is currently among those holding up Ukraine aid to obtain additional border security, but does support aid for Ukraine — find out from Mr. McConnell exactly what border measures Senate Republicans are demanding in return for supporting Ukraine aid, and then – assuming that there are no Republican conditions as malign as those I listed above — call Senate Majority Leader U.S. NY Sen. Chuck Schumer and strongly advise Mr. Schumer to … Do. The. Deal.

My rationale is pretty basic:  what happens now on the border doesn’t, from a practical standpoint, matter that much.  If Mr. Biden wins in November, 2024, Democrats are likely to control both chambers of Congress; they can then attempt to undo whatever measures are enacted now that they consider too onerous.  If Donald Trump wins the presidency next November, whatever strictures are put into effect now will be but a prelude to what Mr. Trump (with, if he is elected, will likely be a Republican-controlled Congress) will do anyway in 2025.

Although this is of wildly lesser import, I would agree with those who have opined that signing a law with stringent border measures may actually help Mr. Biden politically.  By all accounts, those living near our southern border have reasonable concerns about what appears to be our mishandling of border security (no matter whose fault it actually is, the political reality is that the buck stops at the White House), and even many living in the snowy Midwest find the border an emotive issue.  [I was surprised to find how border security resonated with central Wisconsinites at a Republican Town Hall Meeting we attended a couple of years ago.  Although one could argue that the mid-state Wisconsin resident is only marginally more likely to be harmed by an illegal immigrant than s/he is to be strangled by a Burmese python (which are now reported to be migrating north in Florida, having wiped out the available prey in the Everglades), it doesn’t matter.  Citizens vote on their perceptions.]  If Mr. Biden supports stiffer border controls, he will — unlike the many Republicans who are now hypocritically touting the benefits of the Biden Administration’s Infrastructure Law for their districts, despite that fact that they voted against it – be able to correctly declare that he took serious steps to secure our border.  The Wall Street Journal noted recently that if he does make major immigration concessions to Republicans, the President risks losing support amongst some segments of Democratic voters; I would counter that if/when these disgruntled Democrats recognize that the alternative to a Biden vote is a Trump Restoration, they’ll come around.

I am sickened by the fact that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has to come to Washington this week to plead – to beg – for assistance that we have the wherewithal to provide which will continue to defend his nation while at the same time safeguarding ours.  The Ukrainians can’t afford to wait 13 months until (under the happiest scenario) Mr. Biden has won reelection and Democrats have regained control of Congress.  By then, Russia will have conquered Ukraine and the NATO alliance will, for all intents and purposes, be in shreds.  Mr. Biden’s party controls the Senate, albeit narrowly.  He needs to do virtually anything within his power to secure aid for the Ukrainians now

I recognize that this post approaches rant (or perhaps merely exhibits desperation).  Is the Congressional compromise I urge here ugly?  Without doubt.  Essentially acquiescing to blackmail?  Unquestionably.  Domestic Realpolitik?  Certainly.  Necessary to help sustain global democracy?  Seemingly, Yes.

On Henry Kissinger

As all who care are aware, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger passed away on November 29 at the age of 100.  Mr. Kissinger was appointed National Security Advisor by former President Richard Nixon in 1969, and Mr. Nixon named him U.S. Secretary of State in 1973.  To list Sec. Kissinger’s accomplishments here would be a waste of your time; in the coming days there will be a legion of sources that will describe these for those who wish a review.  I consider Mr. Kissinger to be the second finest American foreign policy mind of the last half century – behind only Mr. Nixon himself.  Mr. Kissinger was a practitioner of Realpolitik – pragmatically seeing the world as it is, and advocating for those policies designed to preserve or improve America’s position in ever-shifting global landscape.  (Perhaps I feel the way I do about Mr. Kissinger’s approach because his philosophy toward foreign policy was essentially the same as I would submit must be maintained by an able transaction lawyer – you don’t expect the perfect outcome; you manage within the variables you have to achieve the best outcome you can under the existing circumstances.)  He believed in maintaining stability – a structured world order.  Many accurately criticize him for heavily prioritizing, in deed if not in word, positions that he perceived as maintaining American strategic interests while placing significantly lesser emphasis on (if not ignoring) human rights transgressions by our less-savory allies as well as our adversaries.  I would counter that when you are the world’s preeminent super power, stability is your friend, instability your enemy.  Executing upon such a philosophy is not the most humanitarian, but is arguably the only approach that enables America – which has been and as of today remains, whatever our shortcomings, the foremost democracy and bulwark of freedom in the history of the world — to maintain its standing in a world run by ambitious, flawed and frequently malign humans.

Messrs. Nixon and Kissinger got the primary strategic foreign policy challenge of their age – which I consider to be China, not Vietnam – right.  Despite the depth of Cold War rhetoric and atmosphere, they recognized that China’s Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai had come to fear the power of the U.S.S.R. on China’s border more than they feared America – and that America could leverage this Chinese concern to tilt the balance of world power further toward the U.S. and away from the U.S.S.R.  I would submit that former President Ronald Reagan’s later direct and more bellicose approach toward the U.S.S.R., ultimately resulting in its dismantling, would not have succeeded but for the groundwork laid by Messrs. Nixon and Kissinger.  I agree with the assertion that it was Mr. Kissinger’s worldwide prestige that kept American foreign policy on an even keel as the nation went through the trauma of Watergate.  At the same time, Messrs. Nixon’s and Kissinger’s handling of the Vietnam conflict obviously remains controversial; I have heard commentators opine that they “widened the war” by bombing and ultimately invading North Vietnamese sanctuaries in Cambodia.  It is undisputed that the American bombing left devastation; untold numbers of undetonated bombs embedded in Cambodian soil continue to maim Cambodians.  (This was brought home to us over a decade ago when we visited our son, a Peace Corps volunteer stationed in Cambodia.)  It is also undisputed that American troop levels in Vietnam sharply declined during every year of the Nixon presidency.

As anyone who ever heard Mr. Kissinger speak – which includes almost all of us who have lived in the western world for the last 50 years — is well aware:  this brilliant strategist was a German immigrant, whose Jewish family only came to this country in order to escape Nazi persecution.  His passing again causes one to reflect upon the intellectual capital that this country, our children and grandchildren may sorely lose out on in the future because the xenophobia now infecting so many of our citizens is resulting in the exclusion of immigrants fleeing persecution in their native lands who would, if allowed, enthusiastically enrich our nation.

About a year ago, I entered a note in these pages, entitled, “Our Most Influential American Non-Presidents Since World War II,” describing the contributions of 15 Americans from Muhammad Ali to Mark Zuckerberg (not all the characterizations were positive 😉 ).  I remember considering but ultimately excluding Mr. Kissinger from the list because I didn’t want the group to be too heavily weighted toward my interest in public policy and politics.  I ended the piece with the query, “Who did I miss?”

Now, I answer my own question:  I missed Henry Kissinger.    

May this great – certainly not perfect, but unquestionably great — American rest in peace.

An Admittedly Conflicted View on Civilian Casualties in War

My father enlisted in the Marines right after Pearl Harbor, was a participant in the Battles of Guadalcanal and Iwo Jima, was promoted for his service to his country and decorated for bravery.  The Marines were then and are now rightly celebrated in American lore for their courage and esprit de corps.  He, along with millions of others, left the American military for good in 1946.  Anybody who knows a Marine won’t be a bit surprised to hear that although I never served in the military, part of my rearing included an imprinting that all branches of the military are to be respected, but at bottom, there are the Marines … and then there’s everybody else.

Even so, but for a couple of humorous stories – mostly about brawls in bars between Marines and sailors while on leave – he never talked about the war.  Never.  Except once.

I recall him standing in front of our black-and-white TV, watching the network coverage of what is now known as the My Lai Massacre, a March, 1968, incident in which American soldiers commanded by Platoon Leader Lt. William Calley, who had been ordered to undertake a search and destroy mission, killed hundreds of unarmed South Vietnamese men, women, and children in the village of My Lai.

As my father stood watching the coverage of the prosecution of Lt. Calley, he was shaking his head in disbelief – I realized not at what had been done to the villagers, but at the Lieutenant’s prosecution.  He said in an even tone – not soft, not loud; I think more to himself than to me – “When you’re ordered to clear an area out, you clear the area out.

Infer from that – and consider whatever you infer from that – as you will.  Having never been near a battlefield, I don’t consider my own reflections worth much. During the Second World War, the Marines were engaged in a death struggle against an unyielding enemy to defend freedom.  War is messy; there is little time for deliberation; events spin.  Were all actions undertaken in that just cause warranted – or at least defensible — or not? 

Almost always when I publish a note in these pages, I have concluded – wisely or misguidedly – where I stand on an issue.  When it comes to the justification for inflicting civilian casualties as part of a war effort, I am uncertain.

Hamas’ attack on Israeli civilians on October 7 was horrific.  (As shocking to me have been the breadth of overt anti-Semitic and Islamophobic sentiments and violent incidents it unleashed around the western world; the attack ripped off a thin veneer of tolerance, exposing a depth of widespread religious bigotry in the democracies that I — clearly living in my own oblivious Ivory Tower — had not recognized.)  Hamas must be condemned in the most unequivocal terms; it is a Palestinian terrorist organization committed to the destruction of Israel, has done little to help civilian Palestinians during its almost two-decade control of the Gaza Strip, and employs Palestinian civilians and humanitarian facilities as shields in its assaults on Israel.  Israel has a right to defend its existence and its citizens – which now appears to mean destroying Hamas — and given Hamas’ modus operandi, such Israeli efforts are necessarily going to result in civilian Palestinian casualties.  At the same time, Israel has significantly expanded its control over the last 70 years into land intended by the international community to be inhabited and controlled by Palestinians when Israel was founded.  Although much of this expansion occurred not because Israel attacked, but because it was attacked, it has maintained its de facto grip over Palestinian lands because … it can, and such has suited Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu’s political purposes.  Before the current conflict, human rights groups had been referring to Israel’s treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank as apartheid.  It is not anti-Semitism to suggest — using the Biden Administration, a clear friend of Israel, as the arbiter — that in its assaults, Israel has not been particularly discriminating about protecting Palestinian civilians.

Our acquiescence to civilian casualties may be determined by our view of the virtue of the cause in which they are inflicted and their necessity to achieve victory.  Such does not expunge the fact that cruel and unfair consequences can be inflicted upon noncombatants even in the pursuit of a just cause.  Christianity, and likely many other faiths, holds that protection of the innocent is paramount.  The reality of the flawed human condition makes clear that always prioritizing compassion would lead to subjugation of more peoples by the malignant – ultimately resulting in the maltreatment of a wider set of victims.

Union General William Tecumseh Sherman’s 1864 “scorched earth” march to the sea was a major part of subduing the South and thus preserving the Union and abolishing slavery.  At the same time:

“Sherman had terrorized the countryside; his men had destroyed all sources of food and forage and had left behind a hungry and demoralized people. … Sherman … burned or captured all the food stores that Georgians had saved for the winter months. As a result of the hardships on women and children, desertions increased in Robert E. Lee’s army in Virginia. Sherman believed his campaign against civilians would shorten the war by breaking the Confederate will to fight ….”

  • Anne Bailey, “Sherman’s March to the Sea,” New Georgia Encyclopedia 

Despite Gen. Sherman’s fearsome deeds and reputation, he understood the malign nature of war, but clearly felt that some causes were worth the devastation needed to bring them about.

“War is cruelty, there is no use trying to reform it … You cannot qualify war in harsher terms than I will.  War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it …” 

  • Gen. Sherman, in a letter to James M. Calhoun, Mayor, E.E. Rawson, S.C. Wells, representing City Council of Atlanta, September 12, 1864.

If there has been a more monstrous atrocity in human history than the Nazis’ systematic slaughter of the Jews, I’m not aware of it.  Allied forces were obviously justified in contesting the Nazis and their allies with all of their strength and means.  At the same time, a young friend recently reminded me of the American and British bombing of the German city of Dresden in February, 1945, that killed tens of thousands of civilians in a manufacturing city whose resources the Allies believed – in retrospect, apparently erroneously — that the Third Reich could effectively employ to mount a counteroffensive against our D-Day invasion.  Were the Allies’ efforts excusable?  I would say yes. Were the civilian casualties wrought commendable?  Obviously not.

The U.S. military estimated in the late 1940s that over 100,000 people died in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear explosions.  Others place the total of dead closer to 200,000.  A significant number of these were necessarily civilian.  At the same time, President Truman indicated in a letter in January, 1953, that Gen. George Marshall told him prior to dropping the nuclear bomb on Hiroshima “that such an invasion would cost at a minimum one quarter of a million casualties and might cost as much as a million, on the American side alone.”  Faced with that kind of an estimate, if advising the President I would have supported using the Bomb.  Others would vehemently disagree, then and now.

We condemn the slaughter of Ukrainians civilians in Russia’s war of aggression.  At the same time, would we denounce Ukrainian operations against Russian civilians if such losses seemed likely to turn Russian public opinion against Putin’s war?  I’ll leave that one to you.

Increasing civilian casualties are a fact of modern war and technological weaponry.  They are not going to stop.  It is for one to ponder whether — and if so, when, and to what extent — these human tragedies are worth what is gained.   Americans should be more aware than they appear to be that they have the luxury – at least at present — of considering such philosophical issues from their armchairs.  Much of the world is not so fortunate.  It is those fathers and mothers, sons and daughters, and sisters and brothers whose lives are collateral sacrifice to the designs of others. 

“Abraham drew near and said, ‘Will you destroy the good with the wicked?  If there be fifty just men in the city, will you then destroy the place and not spare it for the sake of the fifty just men within it?’ … And the Lord said, ‘If I find that there are fifty just men in the city, I will spare the whole place for their sake.’”

  • The Book of Genesis, 18: 24, 26.  It is little noted when this passage and the subsequent exchanges between Abraham and the Almighty are read in Christian churches that although the Lord God did allow the just Lot, his wife and daughters to escape, He ultimately did destroy the city and its inhabitants.

There is obviously no ray of enlightenment in this note.

“All cats are grey in the dark.”

  • Musing by the fictional James Bond; Ian Fleming, On Her Majesty’s Secret Service

Smart and Evil

Former President Donald Trump has been sharply criticized – for once, by Republicans as well as by Democrats – for declaring last week that Hezbollah, an Iran-backed Lebanese militant group designated by the U.S. as a terrorist organization, is “very smart.”  The New York Times quoted a Biden Administration spokesman in response:  “Statements like this are dangerous and unhinged.  It’s completely lost on us why any American would ever praise an Iran-backed terrorist organization as ‘smart.’”  The Times quoted former Vice President Mike Pence as saying, “Look, Hezbollah are not smart.  They’re evil, OK.”

I located the video clip; I wanted to hear Mr. Trump’s tone.  I frankly couldn’t tell from his delivery whether he was actually praising Hezbollah – which, if he was, is as repulsive as any of the literally thousand other abhorrent statements he has made since he injected his brand of poison into our political fabric in 2015 – or simply making what he considered an objective observation as a launching point for his attack on Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu, who has seemingly invoked Mr. Trump’s wrath by praising President Joe Biden for his support of Israel since the Hamas attacked from the Gaza Strip on October 7. 

I don’t know if Hezbollah is smart.  I would, however, respectfully disagree with Mr. Pence’s seeming implication that there is a dichotomy between “smart” and “evil.”  A person or organization can be both smart and evil.  One need look no further than Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf; the volume bulges with racism, malignance and hate, while it also contains Hitler’s brilliant – there is no other word for it — description of how best to create and wield propaganda to influence the masses.  (I have frequently wondered whether certain elements of alt-right media haven’t used the book as a text.)

No matter how depraved an enemy might be, it is a dangerous indulgence to deny or underestimate its intelligence.

As President Biden has noted, Hamas is evil; no organization with a shred of good could have carried out the horrific attack on Israeli civilians it executed on October 7.  I don’t know whether its leaders are smart; I do have trouble believing that it could have conducted its operation without the active participation, at least in the planning, by Iranian authorities, who are smart as well as evil.  I would submit that the very ferocity and brutality of the attack was intended to leave Mr. Netanyahu and his cabinet no practical political choice but to invade Gaza.  It took no prescience to anticipate that innocent Palestinian casualties would inevitably result in an Israeli invasion, which would in turn inflame the other Arab states.  Cui bono?  Who benefits?  It appears that Israel’s offensive against Hamas, precipitated by Hamas’ attack, will derail any prospective accord between Israel and Saudi Arabia – an accord that would have significantly weakened Iran’s strategic posture in the Middle East.       

At the same time, I would suggest that Hamas, Hezbollah, and other forces with similar aims were unwilling to wait for the inevitable Palestinian civilian casualties.  I will venture that an entity aligned with them, rather than Israel, is responsible for the hospital explosion that that killed hundreds of innocents on October 17.  I make this suggestion not based upon Israeli or U.S. denials, but upon what has happened since:  Cui bono?  The timing of the blast, from the standpoint of Iran and its satellites, was impeccable.  The explosion has predictably outraged the entire Middle East.  At the time it occurred, Mr. Biden was already committed to a trip intended to quiet tensions through meetings with Mr. Netanyahu, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt, King Abdullah II of Jordan and President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority; after the explosion, the King and Messrs. El-Sisi and Abbas cancelled, leaving Mr. Biden seemingly one-sidedly embracing Mr. Netanyahu – obviously no choir boy from a foreign or Israeli domestic perspective.  I fear that this well-intentioned trip has now become, due to a circumstance that I would submit was not reasonably foreseeable by Mr. Biden or his advisors (assuming that the blast wasn’t caused by Israel), a strategic backfire, likely damaging U.S. credibility in the region.

Again, as to Hamas’ initial terrorist attack:  Cui bono?  How much have you heard in the news about Ukraine since the Hamas attack?  Despite all the Administration and Congressional vows to get aid to Israel, I strongly suspect that Israel, now aroused, is militarily more than a match for Hamas whether it gets American aid or not.  Such is obviously not the case regarding Ukraine’s struggle against Russia.  As America’s attention has been diverted to the Middle East by the Hamas attack, Ukraine’s resources to resist Russia – Iran’s ally — are dwindling, and the House of Representatives – the majority of whom, if reports are accurate, wish to provide Ukraine further aid — are prevented from doing so by House Republican caucus dysfunction and MAGA U.S. OH Rep. Jim Jordan’s quest for the Speakership.

And again, as to Hamas’ attack:  Cui bono?  President Xi Jinping of China must be pondering whether this is the right time to make a move on Taiwan.  Given Mr. Biden’s resolve and the West’s collaborative response in responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, until recent days Mr. Xi might well have logically concluded that it was wiser to delay any overt action against Taiwan until it could be determined whether the American democratic fabric would further unravel during the upcoming U.S. presidential cycle.  Now, it would seemingly be impossible in his place not to consider whether America and its people, even if they have the Pacific military might to repel any attempted Mainland invasion of Taiwan, have the will to confront such an invasion, given all the demands upon them in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.  Does the octogenarian Mr. Biden have the stamina?

Although it serves little purpose to note these glaringly ironic facts, I can’t resist:  Hamas members are Sunni Muslims, and they – as well as their Iranian Shia Muslim collaborators – claim to be dedicated to the precepts of Allah communicated to them through Muhammad – the “Seal of the Prophets” — completely ignoring the fact that Muhammad peacefully allowed Jews to live within his kingdom; or that Jewish Israelis, who rue but accept that their Gaza offensive will inevitably cause injury and death to many innocent Palestinian civilians, subscribe to the Book of Genesis, which describes the Lord God’s efforts to protect innocents as he destroyed the wicked cities of Sodom and Gomorrah.

I have indicated in these pages that I consider Mr. Biden the most consequential American president since Franklin Roosevelt.  Mr. Biden faces not only the foreign policy challenges described here but also the rise of formidable illiberal forces within our own borders.  During the next year, he has to persuade a majority of Americans in key swing states that the course he has and is pursuing is the wisest course for our nation and our citizens.  While I would not go so far as to say that the severity of the challenges Mr. Biden is addressing is yet as acute as those confronted by his predecessors Abraham Lincoln and Mr. Roosevelt, I can think of no president in our history that has had to simultaneously confront such a wide array of truly critical crises as Mr. Biden does today. 

Likely nothing here you haven’t already thought of.  Sometimes, one just has to get it out.  May Mr. Biden and his team persevere against both the evil … and the smart and evil.

On Kevin McCarthy’s Speakership Ouster

The House of Representatives shall chuse [sic] their Speaker …

  • Article I, Section 2; the Constitution of the United States of America

I had something ready to post yesterday morning, written on Tuesday after former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy was removed as Speaker and before I had heard much commentary from media talking heads, in which I queried whether the House Democratic caucus might not have missed an historic opportunity by failing to provide Mr. McCarthy the votes he needed to retain his office.

I am no fan of Mr. McCarthy.  I find him gutless and more interested in title and the trappings of power than in real power.  I consider him to have abided if not abetted in former President Donald Trump’s seditious attempt to thwart the results of the 2020 presidential election.  I have found it unnerving to have him, as Speaker, second in succession to the presidency. 

That said, I suggested in the unpublished post that the weak can serve a purpose; that Democrats might have been able to extract concessions from Mr. McCarthy that could have assured the quick passage of a clean aid bill for Ukraine, perhaps led to bipartisan collaboration on other initiatives between the less partisan members of both parties, and would at a minimum have eliminated the possibility that a MAGA would succeed Mr. McCarthy.

Even so, I pulled the post back because of a factor I heard frequently emphasized in media commentary about Mr. McCarthy after I had scheduled it:  Democrats didn’t believe that he could be trusted to keep his word.

One can’t do business with somebody who can’t be trusted.  If that was indeed the ground upon which Democrats decided to allow Mr. McCarthy’s ouster – rather than pique at Mr. McCarthy’s authorization of an impeachment inquiry against President Joe Biden, or his potshots at them to appease his base, or some other similar grandstanding gesture – I understand why they did what they did.

That said, Pandora’s Box has clearly now been opened.  At the time this is typed, U.S. LA Rep. Steve Scalise and U.S. OH Rep. Jim Jordan have announced their candidacies for the Speakership.  In a January note in these pages on Mr. McCarthy’s quest for the Speakership, I indicated: 

“If … I was a member of the House Republican Caucus, I’d be a hard No on Mr. McCarthy [due to his lack of fortitude] (unless the only alternative was U.S. OH Rep. Jim Jordan, whom I consider at this point to arguably present a greater danger to American democracy than former President Donald Trump). [Emphasis Added]”

I feel no differently about Mr. Jordan’s illiberal inclinations now than I did then [although I concede that given Mr. Trump’s statements and actions over the last nine months and given their respective positions in the MAGA universe, Mr. Jordan may not now present quite as great a danger to American democracy as Mr. Trump (but I am confident that he’ll make up the gap if given the opportunity)]. 

I fear that we may be descending into a political maelstrom.  We’ll soon know whether Democrats’ refusal to prop up Mr. McCarthy was a wise maneuver or regrettable blunder.

On Mr. Prigozhin’s “Crash”

Russian news sources have reported that a plane carrying Wagner Group Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin “crashed” yesterday about 30 minutes after taking off from Moscow.  As all who care are aware, this summer Mr. Prigozhin led his forces – which by all accounts have been the most effective in furthering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – in a quickly-extinguished mini-revolt against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s conduct of the conflict.  Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner Group has reportedly also been Russia’s most effective force furthering Russia’s efforts in Africa.

I have heard it speculated that the plane was shot down or that an explosion occurred on board.  The cause may never be officially confirmed, since the crash occurred over Russian territory.  Given Putin’s track record with those disputing his leadership, I suspect that nobody who thought about it for over, say, a second, thought Mr. Prigozhin had very long to live after his attempted coup was aborted.  Most will assume that Putin was behind Mr. Prigozhin’s demise.  I have seen former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, obviously an extremely knowledgeable authority, indicate that it was too soon to tell whether Putin was responsible; Mr. McFaul offered that it might have been Putin, or it might have been forces aligned with Mr. Prigozhin’s attempted revolt who were outraged when he backed down to Putin.

A Latin phrase that those of us who are mystery story readers have seen countless times:  Cui bono? – Colloquially, Who benefits?  With all due and deserved regard for Mr. McFaul’s reservations, my money would be on Putin.  I’m confident that Putin believes that rebels can’t run a revolt against an established dictator such as himself without a credible revolutionary leader. 

Former Russian World Chess Champion and well-known dissident Garry Kasparov – one of the very few people I follow on Twitter; his rants against Putin and in support of Ukraine are worthy of note – has tweeted that he thinks Putin’s assassination of Mr. Prigozhin is an indication of Putin’s fragility, not strength.  Since I’ve had the temerity to disagree with Mr. McFaul, I’ll also take the liberty of respectfully disagreeing with Mr. Kasparov.  I consider the main consequence of Mr. Prigozhin’s death to seemingly be the solidification of Putin’s domination over Russia even as the Russian president’s Ukrainian incursion appears an ever-deepening strategic debacle.