Lawyers like to play out scenarios; a few premises followed by a reference to the operational wisdom of the fictional Don Vito Corleone.

If I were Mr. Mueller, and I was trying to obtain evidence of wrong doing against President Trump, I think I’d have reached the following conclusions:

1. Even assuming that a President can be indicted or tried, any case against the President would certainly involve a credibility contest between the President and the prosecution’s witnesses. Any one person’s word against the President’s would be insufficient to warrant bringing a case against him; there would be no realistic expectation of obtaining a verdict of guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.  This would certainly be true of any case brought on the uncorroborated testimony of Michael Flynn, who’s already pled guilty to lying to the FBI.

 

2. Rick Gates has also now pled guilty to lying to the FBI; he may or may not have been sufficiently part of the Trump inner circle to provide corroborating evidence against the President, but he was certainly close enough to implicate Paul Manafort. Testimony by Mr. Manafort, corroborating Mr. Flynn’s, would be a nice arrow in the quiver … but I’d still consider it too chancy.

 

3. Despite Steve Bannon’s dismissive assessment that Donald Trump, Jr., can be “cracked like an egg,” I would not primarily focus my efforts on Mr. Trump, Jr. in seeking corroboration for any evidence against the President. I’d assume that Mr. Trump, Jr. will never turn on his father since — I think any observer would agree — such disloyalty would cause the President to entirely disinherit him and his children.

 

4. Instead, I’d focus on Jared Kushner. Unlike Mr. Trump, Jr., Mr. Kushner doesn’t need the President’s money.  If the Mueller Team assembled sufficient evidence against Mr. Kushner to credibly threaten him with conviction of crimes that could result in his spending decades in prison, and I believed that Mr. Kushner could provide corroborating evidence against the President, I’d propose to Mr. Kushner that in return such evidence, Mr. Kushner himself might only have to plead guilty to crimes involving months in a minimum security prison — enabling him to thereafter return to his family and his New York billionaire life.  Mr. Kushner’s marriage to the President’s daughter would create a complication, but Ms. Trump might be persuaded to support her husband’s decision to testify if she understood that it was likely that her children might otherwise not see their father, apart from prison visits, until he was eligible for Medicare.

As aptly noted in the movie, You’ve Got Mail, The Godfather is … the I Ching; the sum of all wisdom; the answer to any question.

Not specifically called out in the film, Mario Puzo wrote in the novel:

“[The fictional Don Corleone] … put layers of insulation between himself and any operational act.  When he gave an order it was to [the Consigliore] or to one of the caporegimes alone.  Rarely did he have a witness to any order he gave any particular one of them …

Between the head of the family, Don Corleone, who dictated policy, and the operating level of men who actually carried out the orders of the Don, there were three layers, or buffers … each link of the chain would have to turn traitor for the Don to be involved …”

If Mr. Mueller and his team are seeking high-level corroboration of evidence against the President, whether they secure it may come down to whether Mr. Trump read The Godfather, or merely saw the movie …

Probably my favorite piece of political commentary during the 2016 presidential campaign came in August, 2016, from an MSNBC commentator (don’t recall the name — not one of the anchors):  ” ‘I am who I am, and that’s who I am’ worked for Popeye the Sailor Man; it remains to be seen whether it will work for Donald Trump.”

Obviously, it did — at least as far as being elected …

Although many may disagree, I think that there is a better than even chance that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s team will present genuine evidence of wrong doing by the President and/or his aides.  Assuming for a moment that this prediction is accurate, each of us citizens will have to assess – critically and impartially – whether the evidence is sufficient, in light of our national value system and the rule of law, to warrant Mr. Trump’s impeachment and/or the conviction of his associates.  I consider Republican Senator Barry Goldwater’s advising President Nixon that based on the tapes’ evidence, he would vote to impeach Mr. Nixon, one of America’s finest moments — provided by someone that was an American first, a Republican second.

In making our individual assessments as citizens, we will need to think critically.  We need to work to get accurate information.  Too many of our people spend all their time in propaganda silos.  We need to not only passively absorb information, but to assess its quality – in part, by assessing the motives behind the purveyors of the reports.

I am concerned that among the significant hazards we will face as this process unfolds are the shows that purport to be news.  I once heard a liberal commentator call Fox News “comfort food for the Right” – and he’s correct.  Fox stirs up its viewers’ emotions by telling them what they want to hear:  “It’s all the Left’s and Democrats’ fault.”  What the liberal talking head didn’t say is that MSNBC has made itself “comfort food for the Left.”  MSNBC, like Fox, stirs up its viewers’ emotions by telling them what they want to hear:  “It’s all the Right’s and President Trump’s fault.”

Why do these outlets do this?  For the money. I don’t suggest that their senior managements are not respectively fundamentally liberal or conservative, but they exaggerate any point to stir up their constituencies because they’re in the entertainment business.  Like ESPN and the Hallmark Channel, they give their viewers what they want to see (nobody wants to see a wrestling match on the Hallmark Channel).  The alt-right and far-left sources are even more dependent on feeding their followers what they want to hear – fair or not.

Too many of our politicians are now no better.  I think that Americans of all political persuasions mostly agree that what has come to drive too many of our representatives over the last decades is not what’s good for America, but what will keep them in their hallowed jobs (if they lose, they again become regular folks like the rest of us).  What keeps them in office is … campaign money.  Unfortunately, the most partisan rich on both sides primarily fund these campaigns.  As we’ve seen over the last year, a disturbing – to me, terrifying – number of our politicians will spout virtually anything, will denigrate anything, in favor of a particular partisan view – for their good, not ours.

No matter whether we’re liberal or conservative, we’re letting them – the cable TV networks, the social media blasts, the politicians – anaesthetize us with what we want to believe.  When visiting a car dealership, how much more prone is one to believe the salesman when he says, “I’m giving you a really good deal,” when you want that car that he’s selling?  When you have two or three models/dealerships in mind, how much more objective are you?  When those salesmen say, “It’s a great deal,” how much more likely are you to say to yourself, “This guy is just selling me because it puts money in his pocket.”?  In politics as in car sales, why should our people uncritically accept the word of somebody whose livelihood is directly tied to telling them what they want to hear?  Those of us with a few years behind us are painfully aware that many times, the person that tells us what we don’t want to hear … is right.

None of this is particularly controversial.  What follows might be.

What makes us best able to exercise and protect our rights as citizens?  I would submit that freedom of the press, fair criminal justice mechanisms, and a respected independent judicial system are paramount.

The Press first:  Although I have little good to say above about TV cable and social media outlets, I believe we need to trust in reputable newspapers.  A newspaper’s lifeblood is information, not entertainment.  While local papers necessarily specialize in reporting on community affairs, we Americans are fortunate to have three great national publications:  The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal.  On their opinion pages, obviously two skew liberal and one conservative.  That said, on their news pages, each can be wrong – but each has too much at stake to intentionally deviate from the truth.

The Times has been the chronicler of the American experience since 1851.  At bottom, it cares most about its tradition for comprehensive accuracy.  By maintaining its tradition, it will survive Mr. Trump as it has his 31 immediate predecessors.  The Post most cares about maintaining quality commensurate to the Times.  In its last historic dispute with a President about the accuracy of its reporting, the Post was correct, and the President was lying.  The Journal’s readers demand accuracy to effectively run their businesses.  Although the Murdoch family controls both the Journal and Fox News, the family obviously understands that Journal readers are seeking information, while Fox News viewers are seeking entertainment.

I would offer that it doesn’t matter which of the three a citizen chooses to follow – but the citizen needs to carefully read the news accounts of one to competently assess the Constitutional challenges that our nation may soon face.

Prosecutors and Law Enforcement Agencies Next:  I have found the Right’s recent attacks on Mr. Mueller and the FBI to be extremely disappointing and dangerous.

Putting aside the facts that Mr. Mueller is a Republican, that he was appointed FBI Director by a Republican, that he was appointed to his current post by an official of the Trump Administration, that no credible anti-Trump motive has been attributed to him, and that his team has already obtained two guilty pleas, place yourself in Mr. Mueller’s position:  What would be most important to you if you had to discharge his duties?  For me, the enormity of the importance of the task would immediately extinguish any personal feelings, pro or con, I had about the President, his aides, or his policies.  Since the way I performed this task would be my legacy — the first line in my obituary — what would drive me wouldn’t be the result, but whether History (and my grandchildren) would be able to look back and say that I had performed my responsibilities competently, impartially, honorably, and honestly.  If that reaction resonates, why would one think that Mr. Mueller would feel differently?  I would suggest that only absolute partisans are unable to attribute other than partisan motivations to others.

As to the FBI, I am concerned that we have become so toxic and tribal that only winning matters – that either side is willing to try to make “black equal white” if it suits its particular narrative.  While one can certainly argue that James Comey made missteps as Director, presumably even the President’s most ardent defenders recognize that Mr. Comey’s announcement, 10 days before the election, that he was reopening the Clinton email investigation helped Mr. Trump and harmed Ms. Clinton.  This was clearly not the action of a Clinton/Democratic loyalist.  At a larger level, I would submit that any citizen that pauses to reflect will recognize that people attracted to positions at the FBI place a high store on law and order – generally Republican inclinations.  To think that the FBI is populated with politically partisan liberal do-gooder Democratic loyalists defies everything that those of us with a bit of gray in our hair viscerally know to be true.  I believe that we would be best served by letting the FBI do its job, and objectively assess the evidence it gathers.

Finally, our Judicial System:  Given my lifetime as a lawyer, Mr. Trump’s treatment of Judge Curiel in the Trump University case – in which the President challenged the Judge’s impartiality simply because of his Mexican heritage — fills me with the deepest foreboding (from more than one perspective).  In this context, the damage that the President and his defenders could do, purely for partisan advantage, by impugning the standing, integrity, impartiality, and competence of our court system and of the judges hearing any cases involving members of the Trump Administration, simply can’t be overstated.  Lawyers know that the vast majority of federal judges – whether appointed by Republicans or Democrats – are competent, diligent, and try their best to “get it right.”  The fact that a judge rules against a litigant doesn’t mean that the judge is wrong or biased.  Our judicial system is the envy of the world – which is why the Russians, the Chinese, and others who don’t adhere to our values invest here.  They know that despite the differences in our respective political systems, they’ll get a fair shake in our courts.  I have seen a commentator on the Right question our Grand Jury system through which prosecutors, including Mr. Mueller, secure indictments; in fact, the Grand Jury system was established in the Fifth Amendment as an additional protection to shield citizens against unfair prosecutions.  Finally, any citizen with common sense will readily realize that a system that some feel is too lenient on defendants – many of them indigent – won’t be unfairly harsh on individuals with millions to spend on excellent defense lawyers and a cohort of people pressing their innocence.

In High Crimes and Misdemeanors, written in the late ‘90’s regarding President Clinton’s behavior while in office, conservative pundit Ann Coulter argued persuasively that the Founding Fathers considered grounds for impeachment in the American system to be primarily related to a moral standard, not necessarily linked or limited to legally criminal behavior, and that the bar for impeachable behavior was pretty low – that the official “simply behave amiss.”  The argument can fairly be made that according to the standard Ms. Coulter outlined, a number of the undisputed actions that Mr. Trump has taken while in office would be grounds for impeachment.  President Trump was validly elected in 2016.  Should he be impeached?  Should any of his associates claiming innocence be found guilty of crimes?  Today, I … have no opinion.  Although it will be up to members of Congress and juries to make the official determinations respectively regarding impeachment and criminal culpability, I’ll form my own opinion when, based upon reports provided by reputable news sources, I’ve had a chance to critically consider any evidence presented by our competent and honorable prosecutors and law enforcement agencies and the fruits of any judicial due process conducted through our envied court system.  I hope all of our citizens, regardless of political leanings, will do the same.  The future of our nation may depend on it.

Over the last few days, I’ve read most of Michael Wolff’s book.  Although it’s easy to see why the President is upset about its unflattering portrayals of him and his key aides, the book somewhat ironically also leaves an impression that, if accurate, supports the Administration’s denial of any collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia:  the key players appear as shady bungling neophytes, not savvy malevolent plotters.  Mr. Wolff notes Steve Bannon’s breezy dismissal of any Russian collusion:  “ … the Trump campaign was not organized enough to collude with its own state organizations…”  (No matter what you think of Mr. Bannon’s politics, he has a wicked wit.)  It will be sadly in keeping with Mr. Wolff’s portraits if the President and his cohorts are ultimately proven to have obstructed justice by trying to impede and mislead law enforcement officials’ investigation of a collusion that never existed …

I just emailed the following Letter to the Editor to The Wisconsin State Journal:

A nonpartisan lament:  as I was watching Senators conferring in the hour that led up to the government shutdown, it struck me that neither of Wisconsin’s Senators appeared to be a meaningful player in the debate.  Sen. Baldwin – if, given the grainy images of the Senate’s cameras, it was indeed her wearing a red top and dark slacks – simply meandered around groups of Senators engaged in animated discussions; I didn’t see Sen. Johnson participate even that much, until the Republicans put him in the presiding officer’s chair to declare the impasse.  If the impressions I gathered from watching the Senate scene are accurate, it was a disappointing (lack of) contribution by both, given Wisconsin’s illustrious history of sending Senators to Washington that were difference makers.

… an able person with a bright future like Kirstjen Nielsen – previously utilized in different ways by Administrations of both parties — so transparently dissemble for President Trump in a manner that has virtually assured that due to a single Congressional session, her career is dead ended – that no serious President of either party will ever again appoint her to a significant post?  Today, the Morning Joe talking heads criticized Ms. Nielsen sharply for acting in what they consider her misplaced loyalty to Mr. Trump.  However, at one point while she was serving as Deputy White House Chief of Staff, the President’s close supporter, Roger Stone, was quoted describing her as “… a neocon who likely did not vote for Donald Trump and certainly does not support his non-interventionist worldview.”  That hardly sounds like a diehard Trump loyalist.

A musing:  that Ms. Nielsen did testify as she did out of loyalty – but to Mr. Kelly, not to the President.  She was apparently a surprising choice for DHS to some; one wonders whether Mr. Kelly got her the role to get her out of the White House (where she was reportedly not popular with some of the President’s intimates) and into the (presumably) politically safer environs of DHS by in part persuading a paranoid President that she would be safe and loyal.  If so, Ms. Nielsen may have acted as she did yesterday not to protect the President’s standing with the nation, but Mr. Kelly’s standing with the President.

A second musing:  if the first musing is correct and Mr. Kelly is the man he is reputed to be, he is wildly angry at Ms. Nielsen for sacrificing her career for him …

The President’s recent tweet that he is a “very stable genius” is reminiscent of Gov. Bush’s claim during the Republican Presidential debates, “And I do have the strength [to be President],” and – for those with longer memories – of Adlai Stevenson III’s declaration in 1982, “I am not a wimp.”  If one has to make this kind of protestation, one has already lost the battle …

Although I disagree with the Vice President on most domestic issues (although we’re probably fairly aligned on most foreign policy issues), I believe him to be an intelligent and honorable man.  I’m therefore intrigued by the manner in which he’s currently positioning himself with his fawning behavior toward the President (I’m avoiding “obsequious,” the latest buzz word), given these premises:    

1.      Mr. Flynn’s guilty plea dramatically altered the severity and immediacy of the impact of the Mueller investigation upon Mr. Trump’s presidency.  By far the most reasonable assumption as to why the Mueller team would let Mr. Flynn plead guilty to such a minor charge is his willingness to provide evidence against Messrs. Trump, Trump, Jr., and/or Kushner.  The potential for substantial charges implicating the President – with consequent impeachment proceedings — would seem to be a significant possibility.  Mr. Pence and his advisors have to recognize that his chances of ascending to the presidency are higher than any Vice President’s since … Gerald Ford’s.

2.      Mr. Pence certainly appreciates that like all Vice Presidents, his primary duty is to ready himself to be President in a manner that enables him to effectively serve the American people who elected him.  While generally the best way for a VP to fulfill that goal is to adhere closely to the President, in light of current circumstances, it would seem that whether to adhere to or quietly separate from Mr. Trump is a strategic conundrum for Mr. Pence.  Given the toxic partisanship that exists today, if Mr. Trump is impeached, the country’s emotional upheaval, exacerbated by what can confidently be assumed will be Mr. Trump’s own response, will be our worst internal maelstrom since the Civil War.  Presumably, Mr. Pence sees that if such circumstances arise, it will be incumbent upon him to strongly uphold our rule of law while presenting stability to the world and maintaining a core credibility – that which supersedes a position on any given issue – with those on the right and the left.

3.      In the Vice President’s position, my reaction would have been to start quietly separating myself from the President in order to establish credibility beyond Mr. Trump’s rabid base, by supporting the Administration initiatives I believed in, while sidestepping the President’s piques and avoiding the displays of sycophancy that marred the signing of the tax bill.  Mr. Pence and his team appear to have concluded that the best way at this juncture for him to maintain that core credibility across the political divide is by clinging to Mr. Trump.  This approach presumably lessens the possibility that Mr. Pence will be blamed for the impeachment by Mr. Trump or his rabid base, and increases the likelihood that he can maintain their support as he assumes the presidency.  Since he already has the support of mainstream Republicans, he must be calculating that he can wait until he takes office to obtain at least the grudging support from the left by then making aggressive healing overtures. 

If this is his strategy, it rests on two assumptions:  that Fox News and the conservative media will report in a way that causes Trumpers to look favorably on him (not a bad bet); and that Mr. Trump himself doesn’t dump on him, or claim he undermined Mr. Trump’s presidency (not as good a bet).  If Mr. Trump would aggressively lash out at Mr. Pence – provided that conservative media was willing to serve as Mr. Trump’s megaphone — all of Mr. Pence’s current fawning behavior toward the President would have been for naught; he will assume the presidency without the support of the Trumpers while having done nothing to garner credit and good will from the left for being his own man.

Time will tell whether he needed a strategy for healing the nation’s current divisions … and if he did, whether he picked the right one …

Am struck this morning by the exquisite and peculiar pivot point that Attorney General Sessions has become – certainly quite unhappily, from his perspective – in the Trump saga.

Although the Democrats and some Republicans have cuffed him around for forgetting about both his own Russian contacts and Mr. Papadopoulos’ reference to Mr. Papadopoulos’ Russian ties, no one has really gone after the Attorney General with the outright viciousness we have seen in Washington.  Nobody is seriously calling for his resignation or firing.

I would suggest that there are two reasons.  First (and, regrettably, that probably of lesser import to Democrats), the Congress knows him, and the members may well viscerally know – even those, such as Sen. Schumer and Rep. Pelosi, that decry the AG’s views in most areas – that Mr. Sessions would not interact inappropriately with the Russians.

The second reason is obviously that Democrats and those Republicans concerned about Mr. Trump want Mr. Sessions right where he is – with his recusal effectively blocking the President’s ability to fire Mr. Mueller.  Democrats and those Republicans concerned about Mr. Trump don’t want Mr. Sessions; they want a full and fair investigation of Mr. Trump and his associates, and having Mr. Sessions continuing to serve as AG appears an appropriate means to achieve that goal.

I heard liberal talking heads lauding Mr. Sessions this morning for rebuffing Jim Jordan’s drive toward having the AG appoint a Special Counsel to investigate Uranium One.  While I don’t discount a desire by Mr. Sessions to do his job ethically and honorably – to follow the facts — being scrupulously straight is also the AG’s best approach for his own self-preservation.  I don’t think Mr. Sessions needs to be told that his own bumbling and faulty memory have given the Democrats sufficient ammunition against him so that even if he’s not now directly in the political cross-hairs, he’s certainly within range … and that his best course for his own survival is to play it scrupulously straight, lest he get swallowed by the Trump maelstrom …

I’ve heard it suggested that Donald Trump never expected nor truly wished to be president – that he ran as a huge marketing ploy for his businesses and brand.

Particularly if that is so, one can imagine that a number of avid supporters of the President that may well be thinking privately – albeit for different reasons – that they would be in much happier places in their lives today had he never run for office.  Without any deep reflection, I’d offer at least:  Mrs. Trump; Donald Trump, Jr.; Jared Kushner; Ivanka Trump; Reince Priebus; Sean Spicer; Michael Flynn; Michael Flynn, Jr.; Paul Manafort; Rick Gates; George Papadopoulos; Jeff Sessions; Tom Price; Wilbur Ross; Rex Tillerson; Bob Corker; and – perhaps – the President himself.

Only a few Trump supporters come readily to mind that (at least as of today) are now seemingly in better places in their careers – again, for different reasons — due Mr. Trump’s candidacy and presidency, than they would be otherwise:  Steve Bannon; Nikki Haley (admittedly not necessarily an “avid” supporter of Mr. Trump’s candidacy); and – perhaps – Mike Pence.